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SAMØKONOMI-Makroøkonomiske utfordringer

When macro meets micro: Global challenges and heterogeneous responses in Norway

Alternativ tittel: Når makro møter mikro: Globale utfordringer og heterogen respons i Norge

Tildelt: kr 12,0 mill.

En liten åpen økonomi som Norge vil alltid være påvirket av global økonomisk utvikling. Klimaendringer, korona-pandemien og kraftige fall i oljeprisen gir spesifikke utfordringer til norsk økonomi og bærekraften i den norske velferdsstaten. Selv om oljerelatert virksomhet har bidratt til økonomisk aktivitet i Norge, har gevinstene blitt ulikt fordelt. Derfor trenger vi en mer rigorøs kunnskapsbasis for å utvikle anbefalinger for økonomisk politikk med fokus på hvordan vi kan ta hensyn til eksternaliteter og ringvirkninger fra oljesektoren og mer generelt utfordringer for en ressursrik økonomi. Det samlende tema for «Macro-micro» er å bruke mikrodata og moderne økonometriske metoder til å adressere spørsmål som er relaterte til makroøkonomi og er relevante for utforming av økonomisk politikk.

The Covid-19 pandemic and a sharp decrease in oil prices pose specific challenges to the Norwegian economy and welfare state. The project Macro-micro studies three challenges to the Norwegian economy. First, as petroleum activities are gradually phased out, Norway is no longer in a unique position and the economy is facing a necessary restructuring of the business sector. Second, although income inequality is low in Norway compared to other countries, rising economic inequality poses macroeconomic challenges such as lower aggregate demand and reduced social mobility. Third, the historically deep downturn due to the Covid-19 pandemic forced the government to implement aggressive fiscal and monetary policy measures with uncertain and heterogeneous impact on firms and households. The project Macro-micro studies these three challenges to the Norwegian economy. The unifying theme of the project is to use micro data and modern methods to study questions of macroeconomic importance and policy relevance. WP1 focuses on the transformation from a resources- to a knowledge-based economy. Knowledge flows can be traced through labor mobility across sectors. We will assess the long run effects of the oil boom in Norway on the accumulation of human capital and the degree of intergenerational occupation persistence. WP2 will investigate the long-run impact of the economic downturn due to the Covid-19 pandemic on gender equality. We assess career costs of motherhood in recessions and persistence of wealth persistence vary over the life cycle. WP3 investigates the heterogeneous effects of fiscal and monetary policy responses to the Covid-19 pandemic using disaggregated data. To estimate causal estimates, we will use the timing and institutional features of the construction of the budget in Norway to identify plausibly exogenous changes of fiscal policy. We analyze the effect of monetary policy during the Great Recession and the recent Covid-19 crises on consumption and inequality.

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SAMØKONOMI-Makroøkonomiske utfordringer