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SSF-Svalbard Science Forum

Predicting population dynamics in Arctic breeding barnacle geese under future climate change scenarios

Tildelt: kr 80 999

The aim of this msc is to predict population dynamics under likely future climate change scenarios, and under changing trophic interactions. My main source of data, in addition to existing climate scenarios from the breeding and overwintering grounds, is mark-recapture data from the population of barnacle geese at Kongsfjorden in Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard. This includes data on nests, clutch size, survival in chicks and adults which will be used in a bayesian population model to estimate population sizes in relation to environmental variation and changes in trophic interactions (e.g. arctic fox and polar bears). During my field work, I will in addition to goose breeding/survival data gather new data on daily presence/absence and nest predation by polar bears (Ursus maritimus), to implement in the goose population model and predictions. Presence/absence data will be gathered by the use of a telescope from land and by using binoculars from boat and data on egg predation will be gathered after it has occured in the barnacle geese colony to ensure our safety.

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SSF-Svalbard Science Forum