Eastern Tropical Pacific reef fish on the move: biodiversity reorganisation and societal consequences

I EASMO har vi et internasjonalt tverrfaglig team som mål å gi viktig informasjon til interessenter om hvordan klimaendringer vil påvirke det marine miljøet, biologisk mangfold, samt økosystemtjenestene det gir til samfunnet i det østlige tropiske Stillehavet. Den norske partneren spiller en nøkkelrolle i å gi state-of-the-art klima- og biogeokjemiske framskrivinger i regionene, som deretter skal brukes til å vurdere økosystem- og samfunnsmessige implikasjoner. For å gjøre dette har vi utviklet en ny hav-atmosfære-modell med høy oppløsning som også inkluderer havbiogeokjemi komponent. Modellkalibreringen er nå fullført, og simuleringer av historisk periode er fullført. Våre første resultater bekrefter at den regionale modellen yter betydelig bedre enn typiske jordsystemmodeller i lavoppløsning av IPCC-klassen. I det østlige tropiske Stillehavet simulerer modellen vår mer realistisk tropisk klimakarakteristikk. I tillegg har vi brukt den regionale modellen for å undersøke driverne for allestedsnærværende skjevhet i globale modeller. Konkret bestemmer vi hvordan endringer i havtilstand påvirker de simulerte nedbørsmønstrene. Vi har jobbet tett med våre internasjonale partnere for å formidle våre modellprojeksjoner og for å simulere fremtidige endringer i det regionale økosystemet.

Marine species are “on the move” escaping hostile climatic conditions. Distribution range shifts of marine biota happen remarkably faster, cause dramatic changes in species interactions and redistribute fishery resources across borders, thus bringing severe ecological, food security, and governance challenges. Redistributions are particularly concerning in marine fish, which provide three billion people with ~15% of their animal protein needs. EASMO will deliver several layers of new scientific knowledge that can be directly integrated into decision-making tools, support adaptive transboundary governance approaches, and propel actions for meeting the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 2 Zero hunger, 13 Climate action, and 14 Life below water. EASMO will advance on the plethora of emerging experiments that expose fishes to altered environmental conditions, by investigating the synergistic effect of warming, deoxygenation, and acidification on physiology, function, and nutritional content. We will also improve existing knowledge on the genomic and proteomic bases for climate-induced fish evolution and generate unprecedented information on molecular, cellular, and organism physiology. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) have forecasted the global-scale effects of climate change on fish and fisheries, whilst intentionally averaging over interannual and decadal variability. Zooming into a pivotal ocean basin, we will apply an ensemble of new-generation SDMs that will allow for previously unaccounted-for interactions between interannual-to-decadal anthropogenic climatic changes (e.g. El Niño Southern Oscillation), whilst incorporating evolutionary adaptation. Our range-shift projections, provided using state-of-the-art coupled regional climate model, will be scaled-up to map future change in multiple biodiversity facets, ecosystem function levels, as well as catch potential, fisheries revenue, and nutritional value across Exclusive Economic Zones.

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Added value of a regional coupled model: the case study for marine heatwaves in the Caribbean

Contrasting projections of the ENSO-driven CO2 flux variability in the equatorial Pacific under high-warming scenario

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Response of the ENSO-driven CO2 flux variability in the equatorial Pacific under high-warming scenario

Constraining ocean carbon sink projections in CMIP6 models

Detection timescale of anthropogenic climate change signals in the global ocean

Developing a high resolution coupled ocean-atmospheric model to understand reef fish distribution in the Eastern Tropical Pacific in the present and future climate

Climate change in the Eastern Tropical Pacific ocean

Developing a High Resolution Coupled Ocean-Atmospheric Model to Understand Reef Fish Distribution in the Eastern Tropical Pacific

Modeling the Eastern Tropical Pacific with COAWST, a coupled ocean-atmosphere model

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