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Understanding Oil Producers Responses to the Renewable Energy Transition (OPRET)

Alternativ tittel: Oljeprodusenters respons på energitransisjon (OPRET)

Tildelt: kr 11,0 mill.

Prosjektet “Understanding Oil Producers’ Responses to the Renewable Energy Transition” (OPRET) skal undersøke hvordan store oljeproduserende land tilpasser seg og forbereder seg på den globale overgangen fra fossilt brensel til ren energi. I rapporteringsperioden for 2022 ble flere forskningsassistenter og forskere rekruttert. En artikkel er til fagfellevurdering hos tidsskriftet Energy Policy. Den utforsker hvordan kredittvurderinger av land utført av selskaper som Fitch, Moody’s og S&P tar hensyn til forventninger om energitransisjon. Vi jobber også på fire andre artikler. Om makroøkonomisk politikk, kjønn i arbeidsmarkedet, og utenrikspolitikken til petrostater. Vi holder på å avtale intervjuer og utføre dype historiske case studier for artiklene om diversifisering, kjønn og utenrikspolitikk. Disse paperne forventes å være klare til å sendes inn til tidsskrifter tidlig i 2023.

The global transition toward renewable sources of energy like solar and wind, combined with increasing adoption of electric vehicles, poses serious challenges for countries that rely on the production of oil. The principal consequence of the energy transition – long-term decline in demand for oil – will over time reduce both the revenue that oil producers collect and the amount of oil they produce. Declining revenue will affect oil producers' ability to distribute patronage to political supporters, provide jobs and a generous welfare state to citizens, and make investments in public goods such as education and infrastructure. These trends have the potential to undermine citizens' economic well-being, the country's economic growth, and ultimately policymakers' own political survival. Governments may be able to guard themselves against these negative consequences by engaging in adaptation policies. These can include diversifying the economy, investing in human capital, or finding alternative sources of revenue, such as levying taxes or investing in sovereign wealth funds. We focus on several factors that drive variation in the extent to which producers pursue these adaptations. First, we expect the degree of adaptation to depend in part on the cost of oil production. All else being equal, producers for which producing oil is extremely costly are at a competitive disadvantage relative to producers for which the cost is lower, and are likely to adapt sooner. Second, countries with greater bureaucratic-administrative capacity are more capable of adapting, as they are better positioned to collect revenue from citizens, administer and enforce enacted policies, and afford and distributed public and targeted goods, despite opposition from vested interests. Third, producers who already had diversified economies prior to becoming major producers should be more capable of adapting, owing to weaker vested interests in fossil fuels.

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