DERISK: How firms navigate de-risking regimes

Økonomisk politikk i vestlige land inkluderer i økende grad tiltak for å redusere avhengighet av Kina og mer generelt et fokus på å styrke såkalt "økonomisk sikkerhet". Denne endringen drives av bekymringer for at økonomisk gjensidig avhengighet kan brukes som maktmiddel. Som et resultat implementerer vestlige regjeringer politikk som eksportkontroller og investeringsscreening, eksemplifisert ved USAs Inflation Reduction Act og EUs europeiske økonomiske sikkerhetsstrategi. Slike tiltak for såkalt "de-risking" plasserer i stor grad ansvaret for risikovurdering på private selskaper, som må navigere motstridende press fra statlige reguleringer og aksjonærs forventninger. Vi vet lite om hvordan selskaper forholder seg til og vurderer statlige signaler om behovet for "de-risking" og hva som påvirker deres strategier og atferd. DERISK vil tilby en systematisk analyse av hvordan selskaper i USA og Europa navigerer innenfor et nytt regulatorisk rammeverk fokusert på "de-risking." Analysen vil fokusere på hvordan selskaper vurderer denne type risiko, hvordan de håndterer og søker å påvirke statlig politikk, samt hvordan forholdet mellom stat og marked former selskapers atferd.

The global economic landscape is undergoing a paradigm shift, with Western ideas transitioning from a belief in the virtues of economic integration to concerns over economic interdependence as a tool for power and coercion. This shift marks a move away from the neoliberal global order towards a new era of "unpeace," where economic dependencies are seen as vulnerabilities. Western governments are responding by implementing measures like export controls, investment screenings, and national industrial policies, as evident in the US Inflation Reduction Act and the EU's European Economic Security Strategy. This change has led to the rise of the "Economic Security State," characterized by a political impetus to de-risk imposed by states, but where the actual burden of de-risking primarily falls on private firms, impacting their supply chains and market strategies. DERISK studies how firms respond to these governmental directives and their influence on state-market relations. The project will analyze variations in de-risking regimes and corporate responses, examining the interplay between government policies and corporate strategies. It will do so both through a broad mapping (WP1), as well as in-depth case studies in communications, energy, and insurance (WP 2 & 3). WP 1 of DERISK involves systematic mapping of de-risking regimes in the US and Europe, focusing on variations in government and corporate articulations of de-risking. WP 2 analyzes corporate responses to these regimes, using interest alignment as a key determinant of their strategies, ranging from compliance to resistance. WP 3 explores how firms shape these regimes, and how different forms of state-market relations result in different mechanisms for influence. The project uses mixed-methods, including content analysis and interviews, to understand the dynamics of de-risking in state-market relations.