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Anvendt forskning

Hvordan former etterretning russisk innenrikspolitikk og utenriks- og sikkerhetspolitikk? Dagens Russland karakteriseres ofte som en «KGB-stat». Nåværende og tidligere etterretningsoffiserer, inkludert president Putin, dominerer i økende grad politikk og økonomi, og bringer med seg kultur, verdensbilde, nettverk og metoder som er typiske for russisk etterretning. Dette er godt kjent, men det er lite systematisk og teoretisk basert kunnskap om hvordan etterretning faktisk påvirker russisk politikk. For å endre på dette har RUSINTELSTATE samlet et team av håndplukkede, internasjonale Russland-eksperter innen etterretningsstudier, kulturstudier, samtidshistorie og internasjonale relasjoner. Anglo-amerikanske etterretningsstudier (for ikke å snakke om statsvitenskap og internasjonale relasjoner) ser gjerne på politikk og etterretning som atskilt. Etterretning forstås snevert, som en spesifikk form for kunnskap som skal gi politisk nøytral beslutningsstøtte. Denne normative tilnærmingen er imidlertid dårlig tilpasset Russland, en autoritær, personalistisk stat med en distinkt historie. RUSINTELSTATE, derimot, a) analyserer etterretning i videre forstand, som aktører, aktiviteter og kultur; og b) anerkjenner at etterretning og politikk ikke kan forstås atskilt. Etterretningsaktører (organisasjoner/nettverk) kjemper for innflytelse ved å posisjonere seg politisk. Etterretningsaktiviteter (kunnskapsproduksjon) både påvirker og blir påvirket av politiske vurderinger. Etterretningskultur – hele spekteret fra propaganda-narrativer til dyptfølt ideologi – både former og blir formet av oppfatningene til aktørene. Vi framholder at verken den russiske staten eller dens etterretning kan forstås atskilt. Vårt begrep ‘hybrid etterretningsstat’, som understreker den gjensidige innflytelsen mellom russisk politikk og etterretning, er et bedre redskap til å forstå russisk utenriks- og sikkerhetspolitikk, og gjør oss bedre i stand til å håndtere dens utfordringer mot vår sikkerhet.

How does intelligence shape Russian domestic politics and foreign and security policy? Intelligence is ubiquitous in Russia. Current and former intelligence officers, including President Putin, increasingly dominate politics and economy, bringing with them the culture, world-view, networks, and methods of the Russian intelligence community. This is widely acknowledged, yet how it impacts Russia’s foreign and security policy is still poorly understood by academics. Both intelligence as such and its role in IR remain under-theorized, and research on Russian intelligence is highly compartmentalized. To change this, RUSINTELSTATE enlists a team of carefully selected international Russia experts from the complementing fields of intelligence studies, cultural studies, contemporary history, and IR. Moving beyond the models of ‘the KGB state’ on the one hand and ‘intelligence-as-a-tool’ of the state on the other, we advance the novel theoretical perspective of the Russian Hybrid Intelligence State. This allows for a nuanced and culturally and contextually sensitive approach based on the recognition that neither the Russian state nor its intelligence can be understood in isolation from each other. Contrary to the traditional and often normative notion of intelligence as a specific type of knowledge, we employ a wide definition of (state-centered) intelligence as actors, activities, and culture, which allows us to analyze the different ways in which intelligence and politics influence each other: a) actors (services/networks) vying for influence by positioning themselves; b) activities (knowledge production) that may both be heavily influenced by political considerations and influence these considerations; and c) culture, i.e. both narratives created for propaganda and deep-seated beliefs of the intelligence services, as well as everything in between. This makes us better equipped to understand Russian foreign/security policy, and to deal with its challenges to our security.

The Russian Hybrid Intelligence State

Politics and Security in the Arctic (POPSARC) tar utgangspunkt i to overordnede spørsmål. For det første, hva kjennetegner vestlige alliertes tilnærminger til sikkerhet i Arktis de senere årene? For det andre, hva kjennetegner samspillet mellom disse vestlige allierte i Arktis, innenfor nøkkelområder av sikkerhetspolitikken? Mye forskningslitteratur har i de senere årene sett på Russland og Kinas ambisjoner for og tilstedeværelse i Arktis, samt vestlige aktørers reaksjoner og tilsvar på disse to statenes signaler og opptreden. Mindre oppmerksomhet har blitt viet endringer i dynamikken og samspillet mellom allierte på vestlig side. Her vil POPSARC bidra til å skaffe til veie oppdatert kunnskap.

Prosjektet fokuserer på åtte stater: De syv arktiske statene Norge, Danmark, Island, Finland, Sverige, Canada og USA, samt Storbritannia - som definerer seg som Arktis' nærmeste nabo. Forskningsteamet vil undersøke disse statenes tilnærminger til og samspill i arktiske sikkerhetsspørsmål på tre områder i perioden 2014-2026: Diplomati, militært samarbeid og infrastruktur-styring. Prosjektet trekker på et teoretisk rammeverk hvor ideer om utenrikspolitiske handlingsrepertoar, felleskapsbygging og differensiering står sentralt. Dette rammeverket vil bli brukt til å analysere endringer i diskurs og observerbare samhandlingsspraksiser på de tre områdene. På den måten vil prosjektet gi verdifulle innsikter til forskere, men også beslutningstakere og den opplyste allmennheten.

At a time marked by major international turbulence – war in Europe, the breakdown of established diplomatic fora, the entry of new actors and stakeholders – there is an urgent need for also understanding the approaches of and interaction dynamics between Western allies operating in or near the Arctic. Power Politics and Security in the Arctic (POPSARC) addresses this knowledge need. While there is a rapidly growing body of literature tracing and unpacking the ambitions and actions of Russia and China in the Arctic, and Western actors’ responses to their moves, limited scholarly attention has been given to the (changing) fabric of allied interactions in the region. POPSARC will theorise, trace, and unpack allied interaction patterns in and around the Arctic.

Doing so, the project asks two questions. First, what characterises Western allies’ current approaches to security in the Arctic? Second, how are allied interactions in the Arctic sphere materialising – in statements, strategies, and observable material practices – across key security domains? Zooming in on the time period 2014-2026, the POPSARC team will study Western allies’ approaches to and interaction patterns in Arctic security across three domains: Diplomacy, military collaboration, and infrastructure governance. Theoretically, it will employ a theory framework organised around the concepts of foreign policy repertoires, community-building, and differentiation. Empirically, it combines the study of dominant and alternative representations in official and wider political and discourses, with a study of observable interaction practices in the domains of diplomacy, military collaboration, and infrastructure governance. In terms of output, the project will deliver academic articles, events, talks, popular publications, and social media engagement. Project results will add to the knowledge production on Arctic security, help policy makers arrive at better-informed decisions, and educate members of the public.

Power Politics and Security in the Arctic

Integrated Research Infrastructure Services for Climate Change risks

Adaptation to climate change requires in-depth understanding of climate change driven risks, including their determinants (hazards, exposure and vulnerabilities) and impacts to human, production and natural systems. Integrated Research Infrastructure Services for Climate Change Risks (IRISCC) is a consortium of diverse and complementary leading research infrastructures (RIs) covering disciplines from natural sciences to social sciences, across different domains and sectors. IRISCC provides scientific and knowledge services to foster cutting-edge research and evidence-based policymaking to improve Europe's resilience to climate change. IRISCC ensures a “one-stop-shop” for various user communities on climate change risk related RI services by setting up a dedicated Catalogue of services and related access management system both for granting transnational (onsite and remote) and offering virtual access. The Catalogue of services will be built through three consecutive releases, each delivering increasingly integrated services to its user communities. The IRISCC service integration will include Service Design Labs employing co-design and transdisciplinary action, and Service Demonstrators benchmarking the integrated cross-RI services. In addition to services aimed towards the scientific community, IRISCC will offer knowledge services aimed towards policymakers and other stakeholders. This is done together with risk management platforms. The research enabled by IRISCC contributes to future reports on climate change effects (IPCC, IPBES) as well as policy- and decision-making to meet the targets of climate adaptation strategies. IRISCC contributes to training a new generation of scientists to efficiently use RI services and for data stewardship. Data from IRISCC will be open and made available in compliance with FAIR principles and linked to European initiatives such as EOSC. Strong links will be created between IRISCC and current and future efforts under Horizon Europe.

EXPRESS2 is a project that addresses from a multidisciplinary, interdisciplinary and cross-sectional perspective, the growing demand for a new, more democratic, inclusive, and sustainable social contract in the EU. To achieve this, the project will work to create a more appealing and legitimate EU social contract draft that will be submitted to inhabitants, Member States and EU institutions that will have the possibility to participate and decide upon the conditions, rights, and obligations to be binding. The goal is to strengthen the EU agreement of association by promoting social dialogue, civic engagement, and integration. An express draft shall be achieved by means of policy dialogue, campaign implementation, collaborative workshops, advocacy planning, and innovative offline and online formats and tools to create spaces for dialogue. To this end, EXPRESS2 will involve EU policymakers and institutions throughout the project to obtain a more appealing and legitimate EU social contract draft. 
The project will also focus on identifying and analyzing disruptive elements of the social contract, such as insecurity, populism, climate change, mistrust in institutions, gender discrimination, digitalisation and pandemics. The analysis of these stressors includes both individualised and cross-sectional approaches to cover the plausible relation of multiple disruptors, their concatenation or the “trigger” effect of a disruptive phenomenon to another. By understanding these disruptive elements and their effects on the social contract, the project will propose concrete measures to ironclad the social contract and it will provide relevant information to protect it from actual and potential disruptions thus we conceive social contracts as incomplete theorised agreements and living documents. In addition to academic, policy, and socio-economic outcomes, EXPRESS2 will propose recommendations to strengthen the social contract's resilience and capacity for further development.


EXPRESS 2 SPECIFY AND PROTECT THE EU SOCIAL CONTRACT (EXPRESS2)

SUNSET aims to develop innovative research and training capacity around city-university interactions driving the EU’s green and digital transition. This twin transition is a defining element of the current EU policy agenda towards achieving climate neutrality and sustainable growth. The European Commission considers cities to be frontrunners in this transition agenda, but their transformational capacity and resilience crucially depends on the presence of agile and high-performing urban innovation ecosystems. SUNSET brings together (1) prominent researchers working in diverse geographical and disciplinary settings at leading universities (N=6) with (2) partners (N=16) from city governments (often participating in the Cities Mission to achieve climate neutrality by 2030), innovation companies, research institutes and civil society organizations to analyze and foster the performance of these urban innovation ecosystems: drawing on a purposeful range of interdisciplinary, international, and intersectoral exchanges, the Doctoral Network will investigate whether and how universities can successfully become key drivers of the twin transition in cities via their role as innovation partners, the implementation of campus living labs, and as architects of decision-making in governance ecosystems. Through a tailored combination of network-wide training events and academic and non-academic secondments, the SUNSET Doctoral Network will train a new generation of researchers to become future urban innovation ecosystem leaders in the pursuit of the twin green and digital transition. The findings will lead to practical guidelines regarding the design and implementation of living labs for university and city management, tailored strategies to foster more inclusive and diverse urban ecosystems, and diverse forms of scientific outreach and dissemination.

Smart and Sustainable Host UniverCities: leveraging city-university interactions to further the twin green and digital transition

Til tross for at politiske partier er sentrale i å utvikle klimapolitikk, er det forsket lite på strategiene og påvirkningen deres, spesielt i et sammenlignende perspektiv. Målet med dette prosjektet er å adressere mangelen på systematiske og sammenlignbare data på partiers klimaposisjoner, og å gjennomføre den mest omfattende analysen av rollen til politiske partier i klimapolitikken som har vært gjort til nå. Forskningsspørsmålene er:

1: Hvordan posisjonerer partier seg på klima, og hva forklarer variasjonene?
2: Hvordan er konkurransen mellom partier på klimaområdet strukturert i industrialiserte land, og hva forklarer variasjonene?
3: Hvordan påvirker befolkningens holdninger hvordan partier posisjonerer seg og konkurrerer på klima?
4: Hvordan påvirker partiers preferanser i klimapolitikken regjeringers politikk?
5: I hvilken grad kan variasjon i lands klimaambisjoner forklares av partipolitisk konkurranse?

Prosjektet vil bygge et datasett med partiers klimaposisjoner, som dekker 20 land over to tiår med klimapolitikk. Fokuset er på industrialiserte land siden disse har de største historiske utslippene og mest ansvar for å redusere utslippene, og fordi de har etablerte (og derfor sammenlignbare) partisystemer. Statistiske analyser vil kombineres med kvalitative casestudier av Australia, Norge, Storbritannia og USA. I disse landene er det overraskende variasjoner både med tanke på klimaambisjonene og på hvor polariserte partiene er på tema. Intervjuer med politikere og samfunnsaktører, samt spørreundersøkelser av befolkningen, vil gjennomføres i hvert land.

Det empiriske omfanget, kombinasjonen av forskningsmetoder og ambisjonsnivået i prosjektet er nytt, og vil levere viktig kunnskap om klimapolitikk på et kritisk tidspunkt for menneskeheten. Funn fra prosjektet vil avsløre hvordan etablerte partisystemer responderer på nye og utfordrende samfunnsproblemer, og kaste lys over muligheter og utfordringer for politisk omstilling til lavutslippssamfunnet.

Political parties lie at the heart of climate change politics, yet their strategies and influence are woefully understudied, especially in a comparative perspective. The goal of this project is to address the lack of systematic and comparative data on political parties’ climate change positions and provide the most comprehensive analysis of the role of political parties in climate politics to date. The project research questions (RQs) are:

RQ1: How do parties position themselves on climate change, and what explains the variation?
RQ2: What is the structure of party competition on climate change in developed countries, and what explains the variation?
RQ3: What is the role of public opinion in explaining party positions (RQ1) and party competition (RQ2) on climate change?
RQ4: How do political parties’ climate policy preferences shape government policy?
RQ5: To what extent is variation in countries’ climate change ambitions explained by party competition?

To answer these questions, the project will bridge the comparative climate policy and party politics literatures. Using an innovative approach to hand-coding party manifestos, the project will create a data set of parties' climate policy preferences across 20 countries covering four election periods, encompassing over 300 parties-at-election. The focus will be on developed countries, as these are the largest emitters with the greatest responsibility to reduce emissions and because they have established (and therefore comparable) party systems. Large-N quantitative and medium-N methods will be combined with intensive case study analysis of Australia, Norway, the UK and the US. The empirical scope, mixed-methods approach and ambition of the project is novel and will deliver critical knowledge about climate politics at a vital moment in time.

Political Parties and Climate Change: Positions, Polarisation and Policy Relevance (PARTYCLIM)

Today most dictators exploit democratic institutions such as multiparty elections or legislatures to cover their autocratic rule. To carry out this form of rule, dictators need a loyal coalition of politicians to gather supporters, advance policies and win elections. While this loyalty is central to regime survival, elite divisions within authoritarian governments can induce political change. Yet, what type of divisions matter and whether such change will be democratizing are unclear. Defectors might have the resources to embolden pro-democracy groups, but they may also face repression, worsening democratization prospects. What type of divisions within the ruling elite can weaken modern autocracies? What are the mechanisms that underpin the relationship between defections and democratization?

ELITE offers a new theoretical framework, innovative data, and empirical research to identify and explain the strains and disruptions within authoritarian governments that induce democratization. It develops a theory of the elite origins of regime (in)stability, focusing on divisions within the ruling elite. ELITE builds a novel dataset on political elites’ resources and dissent strategies in 28 prominent electoral autocracies—today's most common form of autocracy. Cutting-edge mixed methods test why and how elite divisions strengthen anti-regime groups and weaken leaders' tools to stay in power. Findings will inform academic and policy debates on the processes that weaken modern dictatorships. Dr. Adrián del Río Rodríguez has broad expertise on the topic of elite politics in autocracies and methodological skills to carry out the ELITE project. The Department of Political Science, University of Oslo, will host Dr. del Río, and Prof. Carl H. Knutsen–a top international scholar in autocratic politics—will supervise him. The hosting arrangements provide excellent opportunities for networking, training, and potential for research collaboration during the MSCA fellowship.



Elite Politics in Electoral Autocracies

POSOR (Political and Societal Violence in Russia)

Det postsovjetiske Russland har et vedvarende voldsproblem. Dette kommer til uttrykk på ulike måter, fra høye drapsrater og utbredt familievold til krigsforbrytelser i forbindelse med militære konflikter. Hvis vi ser på forskjellige indekser for voldsbruk, så ligger Russland klart over de fleste andre land med avanserte økonomier. 
Hvorfor er voldsnivåene i Russland så høye, og hvordan påvirker dette landets politiske og økonomiske utvikling og dets forhold til omverdenen? POSOR undersøker disse spørsmålene ved å studere fenomenet på tre nivåer: (1) statlig bruk av vold mot interne og eksterne aktører, (2) ikke-statlige grupper og organisasjoners voldsbruk (med fokus på høyreekstreme aktører), og (3) vold i nære relasjoner, eller kjønnsbasert vold. Prosjektet er flerfaglig og vil benytte en kombinasjon av tilnærminger for å besvare spørsmålene, inkludert case-studier, dokument- og innholdsanalyse, og kvantitative metoder.

Hvorfor trenger vi ny kunnskap om vold i Russland?

Det finnes en stor forskningslitteratur som tar for seg stat og samfunn i det postsovjetiske Russland, men vold har vært et marginalt emne. Det finnes faktisk ingen systematiske undersøkelser som fokuserer både på årsakene til de høye voldsnivåene og implikasjonene for samfunnet i stort. POSOR-prosjektet tar utgangspunkt i at vold kan spille en viktig rolle både ved å forme politisk og økonomisk utvikling og å bli formet av denne. Uten å forstå de høye voldsnivåenes rolle i Russland, vil vi være dårligere i stand til å analysere landets innenrikspolitiske, utenrikspolitiske og økonomiske utvikling. Videre er det dessverre grunn til å tro at problemet vil kunne øke i årene som kommer. Uansett utfallet av krigen i Ukraina, vil den ytterligere normaliseringen av voldsbruk som denne har medført, følge det russiske samfunnet i lang tid framover.

Considerable levels of violence have been observed in Russia since the disintegration of the Soviet Union. The state has administered large-scale violence through multiple wars, violence has been a key part of the repertoire of non-state actors such as criminal organizations, vigilante groups, and political extremists, and levels of general interpersonal violence have been high. Indeed, Russia stands out from other advanced economies in several respects. In the Violent Societies Index (VSI) Russia has been ranked among the top 10 most violent societies in both the 1990s and the 2000s. In the domain of extreme-right violence for example, Russia’s average rate of fatal attacks per year (adjusted for population size) exceeds rates found in the U.S. by 500% and in Western Europe by 750% . For interpersonal violence in general, independent estimates indicate that Russia’s homicide rate exceeds that of all other European countries. Given this centrality of violence within Russia as both a tool of public policy, and as an outcome of societal tensions, it is possible that Russia will continue to follow an increasingly violent trajectory, posing an even greater threat to its neighbors and to its population. This project will therefore come at a critical time and will inform wider societal understanding of why Russia behaves as it does today, and what possibilities may lie ahead in the near future. Reports and statistics on the level of violence in Russia are relatively well known, but the causes and larger ramifications of political and societal violence in contemporary Russia remain curiously understudied. In this project, we address this gap by asking (1) how to explain the exceptionally high levels of violence in post-Soviet Russia, (2) how the problem of violence affects Russia's political and economic development, and its relationships with its neighbors, and (3) how Russia’s violence problem affects the relationship with its neighbors.

Political and Societal Violence in Russia

Latin-Amerikas unike biologiske mangfold og rike naturressurser gjør miljøpolitikk i denne regionen helt nødvendig for å nå globale miljø- og klimamål. Både Parisavtalen og Kunming-Montreal rammeverket for biodiversitet understreker statens ansvar for å vedta og styre i henhold til klima- og miljøstrategier og -planer. Men gapet mellom nødvendige miljø- og klimatiltak og iverksatt politikk øker. De kommende «kampene» innen miljøpolitikk vil være i spesifikke sektorer der etablerte aktører ligger an til å tape på strengere grønne reguleringer. De fleste land har "akilleshæl"-sektorer der gjennomslag for miljøtiltak er spesielt vanskelig, i Latin-Amerika er disse sektorene store eksportorienterte primærnæringer som produksjon av fossilt brensel, gruvedrift og industrielt landbruk. GreenLeAP vil styrke den teoretiske og empiriske forståelsen av miljøpolitikkutforming i primærindustrisektorer i Latin-Amerika, og dermed øke kunnskapen om hvordan regionen kan bidra til å nå globale miljømål. GreenLeAP vil utvikle et analytisk rammeverk for å forstå hvordan samspillet mellom ulike eliter og institusjoner muliggjør eller hindrer grønnere politikk i akilleshælsektorer i Latin-Amerika.  Vi vil benytte dette rammeverket i systematiske sammenlignende analyser av sektorer i Brasil, Chile, Colombia og Mexico. Prosjektet vil kombinere ekspertise på latinamerikansk komparativ politikk og miljøpolitikk, to sterke statsvitenskapelige forskningstradisjoner som sjelden samproduserer.

Latin America’s unique biodiversity and abundant natural resources make the region’s environmental politics indispensable for attaining global environmental targets. The Paris Agreement and the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework both emphasise states’ responsibility to adopt and govern according to climate and environmental strategies and plans, but the gap between needed environmental action and implemented policies is increasing. The coming “battles” of environmental politics will be in specific sectors where established actors stand to lose from stricter green regulations. Most countries have hard-to-abate “Achilles heel” sectors for domestic environmental action, in Latin America these are large export-oriented primary industries like fossil-fuel extraction, mining, and industrial agriculture. GreenLeAP will enhance the theoretical and empirical understanding of environmental policymaking in Achilles heel primary industry sectors in Latin America, and thereby increase the knowledge on how the region can contribute to attaining global environmental targets. GreenLeAP will develop an analytical framework for understanding how the interaction between different elites and institutions enables or hinders greening of Achilles heel sectors in Latin America, and employ this framework in systematic cross-country comparative analysis of sectors in Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Mexico. The project will combine expertise on Latin American comparative politics and environmental politics, two strong political science research traditions that rarely co-produce.

Greening Achilles heel sectors: Understanding environmental policy change in Latin American Primary industries

I dagens samfunn øker mengden av data raskt, samtidig som datamaskinene har blitt stadig mer effektive og nå kan analysere og utnytte slike store datamengder i sann tid. Dette har ført til mange nye hjelpemiddel i hverdagen som for eksempel selvkjørende biler, beslutningsstøtte for leger, automatisk talegjenkjenning i TV, datamaskiner og smarttelefoner.  Alt dette er eksempler på bruk av kunstig intelligens hvor målet er å trekke ut og klassifisere viktige elementer fra store datamengder.

Hovedformålet med dette Forskningsråds-prosjektet «Raske usikkerhetsberegninger innen dyp læring avvendt til objekt-gjenkjenning i sonarbilder», er å beregne usikkerheter for dyp-lærings algoritmer og vise hvordan de kan være nyttige innen overvåking av havbunnen, både for sivile og militære formål.
Forskningen er et samarbeid mellom Forsvarets forskningsinstitutt (FFI), UiT og bedriftene Argeo og Multiconsult.

Prosjektet er en utvidelse og forsterking av det pågående Forskningsrådsprosjektet «Transforming ocean surveying by the power of DL and statistical methods» som er et samarbeid mellom UiT og næringslivet (Multiconsult og Argeo), der formålet er å klassifisere objekter på havbunnen bedre, ved bruk av kunstig intelligens.

Troverdige usikkerhetsberegninger, knyttet til klassifisering av objekter, er svært relevante i forhold til undersøkelser som Forsvarets forskningsinstitutt utfører. Det kan for eksempel være snakk om å uskadeliggjøre/fjerne gamle miner og bomber på havbunnen. Prosjektet vil bruke såkalt Bayesiansk dyp lærings-metodikk og nevrale nettverk få å gjøre i disse usikkerhets-beregningene raskere. I tillegg vil vi undersøke hvordan simulerte data kan påvirke disse beregningene.

Prosjektet tar sikte på å overføre kunnskap og ekspertise til forsvarssektoren gjennom forskning og utvikling og forskerutdanning utført av alle samarbeidspartnerne i prosjektet.

In modern society, the amount of data collected is rapidly increasing. Examples occur from self-driving cars to decision support tools in hospitals. Artificial intelligence is key to extract crucial information from the huge amounts of data. Classifiers that suggest a class affiliation based on the input characteristics of the observation, often play a central role in such tasks. The ongoing project entitled 'Transforming ocean surveying by the power of DL and statistical methods' in the IKTPLUSS program focus on development of novel AI methodology that can be successfully used in seafloor monitoring and is performed in close collaboration with the companies Argeo and Multiconsult.

The new project applying for supplementary funding will utilize the Bayesian Deep Learning methods developed by the ongoing RCN funded project to obtain reliable uncertainty estimates in classification tasks highly relevant to investigations performed by the Norwegian Defence Research Establishment (FFI). In addition, the new project will add to the ongoing project by pursuing sparse neural networks as a novel and particularly interesting field for speeding up uncertainty estimation in Bayesian Deep learning. Another novelty of the project is to investigate the impact of simulated data in uncertainty estimation. Finally, the project will transfer knowledge and expertise of the project to the defence sector. 
To be specific, FFI will contribute with their knowledge and experience within seafloor monitoring, efficient acquisition of data and access to highly relevant data sets.  The ongoing project will, on the other hand, contribute with reliable uncertainty estimates and efficient utilization of heterogeneous data sets. In addition, the new project will lead to novel collaborations between FFI, other academia and the companies Argeo and Multiconsult. This is expected to give large synergies and benefit FFI, academia and the companies as they are focusing on highly related problems.

Fast uncertainty estimation in deep learning applied to 
object recognition in sonar images

Fononlevetider: en kombinasjon av uelastisk nøytronspredning og beregninger

Midlene fra NANO2021-Nanoteknologi og nye materiale fordelt på år

Midlene fra NANO2021-Nanoteknologi og nye materiale fordelt på fylker

Midlene fra NANO2021-Nanoteknologi og nye materiale fordelt på fagområde

Førsteamanuensis

Our environmental impact is massive; thus, we urgently need to reshape our energy consumption. One key point resides in thermal management solutions, such as waste heat recovery and conversion, and localized and integrated thermoregulation which increases comfort, lifespan and reduces energy waste.  
Solid-state materials can and are used in thermal management, without the need for moving parts, such as high entropy alloys and thermoelectric materials. Thermoelectric materials can be used as energy converters, they can harvest waste heat and convert energy to electricity, or be used as spot-sized solid-state refrigerators. Microscopically, these applications are linked to the characteristics of atomic vibrations, which ultimately define the thermal properties. To optimize existing or discover new materials, it is important to fully understand how atomic vibrations interact and how those interactions affect their lifetime. If you think about these vibrations as waves, the lifetime is related to how far that wave can propagate through the material before dissipating.  
In this project, scientists at the University of Stavanger, SINTEF, Technical University of Denmark, the Helmholtz-Zentrum Berlin and collaborators will work together to develop new experimental and computational methodologies based on high-resolution neutron techniques to gain accurate insights into the lifetime of these atomic vibrations. We will compute, measure, and analyze the vibrations’ lifetimes and thermal conductivities of key materials. The resultant methodologies will allow us to predict macroscopic thermal properties from more accessible microscopic properties, like atomic positions. We will bring screening calculations closer to reality, facilitating the discovery of materials for innovative thermal management solutions and gain deeper fundamental knowledge of how the atomic vibrations interact in materials.

We propose to develop a coherent strategy to compute, measure and analyse phonon lifetimes and thermal conductivities for advanced materials, which will make possible to predict new materials for thermal management and yield the possibility to predict new or better optimized thermoelectric materials containing non-toxic and earth-abundant elements.  
This coherent strategy is based on computational developments, implementing both anharmonic and incoherent effects, in addition to the temperature effects on the phonon and electrical properties. These will be based on density functional theory (DFT) and post-DFT methods like screened Green’s functions (GW) and time-dependent-DFT (TDFT) and developments therein. In combination, this will allow us to develop generic workflows for each computational task and execute a large-scale screening study after initial experimental verification using three selected thermoelectric materials, strontium titanate, a skutterudite compound and a clathrate compound.
We will determine the phonon lifetimes in the selected benchmark systems with high precision. A novel combination of the highest energy and momentum resolution neutron scattering techniques and Raman scattering will be used. Instrumental resolution functions will be revised and resolution functions for the future spectrometer BIFROST at the European Spallation Source will be computed. 
The scope of this proposal demands a highly experienced project group with top international research partners from different fields, such as neutron instrumentation and atomic-scale modelling. The project will mainly be executed by two national partners: University of Stavanger (UiS) and SINTEF and two international partners: Helmholtz-Zentrum Berlin and the Technical University of Denmark, thus ensuring knowledge transfer and contributing to the development of national expertise within these techniques.

Phonon lifetimes; unifying inelastic neutron scattering measurements with first-principle calculations

Income supported farming means that the farmer household covers low returns from their farming with other sources of income. This is in particular relevant for part-time farmers. This group grow in numbers relative to full-time farmers all over Europe. 

 The decisions of income supporting farmers need a richer theoretical framework to be understood, than the standard one based on profit maximization. We will explore the larger class of models based on utility maximization of joint household and farm produ ction in the presence of eventual transaction and adjustment costs. Such models are consistent with the popular view that farmers farm as they can afford, they have a theoretical foundation, and they contain the standard behavioral models of producers and  consumers as special cases. 

Within this frame it seems possible to model and analyze the farmers' simultaneous decisions with respect to land use intensity, farm size, farm investments, and combinations with off-farm activities. Farmers are of course h eterogenous in these respects, but that will be accounted for. In turn, one can then see the impacts of agricultural policy in relation to the state of the general economy with respect to these matters. That is a step in the development of knowledge to su pport sustainable policy with respect to land use and land-using industries - one of the goals of the research programme. 

The key tool in this research will be structural microeconomic models estimated on a panel of farm household accounts from Denmark,  Finland and Norway. By combining countries with different policy regimes, the analysis will get wider empirical support. From estimation results one can both state key findings for representative households, and build dynamic aggregate policy models base d on their structure.

Income supported farming: The economic behaviour of farmer households

While Norwegian fish farming is a relatively new, fast growing export industry strongly dependent on trade, Norwegian agriculture is oriented towards a limited domestic markets, with increasing foreign competition. While both industries are subject to spe cial types of risks as biological productions, the exposure to market risk and the availability of risk management strategies are different. Comparisons between the two industries would benefit the understanding of risk exposure and possible strategies for risk management in both and be advantageous to producers, analysts, and policy makers. Through the suggested strategic programme the NILF c an continue and strengthen its development towards a leading economic research institute for the Norwegian food sector, including seafood.  The programme has following main tasks: (1) Analysis and comparisons of risk exposure and risk management strategies in agriculture and aquaculture, and (2) analysing and developing methods for within-firm risk management and methods for risk-sharing. Qua lifying research (aim two Ph.D and two post doc.) and strengthened contacts to outstanding foreign universities and national research institutions are important aims. To strengthen the programme we will search for additional financing from different sourc es (industry, government etc.).

0 projects

NATURNAER-Natur og næring

Income supported farming: The economic behaviour of farmer households

Awarded: NOK 4.5 mill.

Project Period: 2006-2009

Location: Oslo

SIP-LMD-SIP finansiert av Landbruksog matdepartementet

Risk exposure and risk management in food production - Comparing aqua- and agriculture

Awarded: NOK 9.0 mill.

Project Period: 2003-2008

Location: Oslo