2022

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

Portefølje Naturvitenskap og teknologi ikon

The research system

Portefølje Humaniora og samfunnsvitenskap ikon

Ground-breaking research

Portefølje Samisk ikon

Sámi society and culture

Portefølje Demokrati, styring og fornyelse ikon

Democracy and global development

Portefølje Velferd, kultur og samfunn ikon

Welfare, culture and society

Portefølje Helse ikon

Health

Portefølje Klima- og polarforskning ikon

Climate and environment

Portefølje Landbasert mat, miljø og bioressurser ikon

Land-based food, the environment and bioresources

Portefølje Energi, transport og lavutslipp ikon

Energy and transport

Portefølje Muliggjørende teknologier ikon

Enabling technologies

Portefølje Industri og tjenestenæringer ikon

Innovation

LTP Climate, environment and environmentally friendly energy

Climate and loss of natural diversity

Internationalization

Societal security and civil preparedness

Renewal in the public sector

Velferdstjenester

Frontpage Image

Marine icon

Petroleum og mineraler

LTP Hav ikon

Oceans and coastal areas

LTP2 Muliggjørende og industrielle teknologier ikon

Enabling and industrial technologies

Trust and community

Professional environment

High quality and accessibility

LTP Climate

Strengthened competitiveness and innovation capacity

LPT Health

 An innovative business community

LTP3 Helse

Portefolje Petroleum Ikon

Portefølje Hav ikon

Portefølje Utdanning og kompetanse ikon

Portefølje Global utvikling og internasjonale relasjoner ikon

Portefølje Livsvitenskap ikon

LTP2 Styrket konkurransekraft og innovasjonsevne ikon

LTP2 Utvikle fagmiljøer av fremragende kvalitet

LTP2 Samfunnssikkerhet og samhørighet ikon

LTP2 Fornyelse i offentlig sektor ikon

LTP2 Klima, miljø og miljøvennlig energi ikon

Forsidebilde optimalisert

project-bank-technical

Et innovativt næringsliv ikon

Muliggjørende teknologier bakgrunn

Marin bakgrunnsbilde

Marin ikon

Forsidebilde

Statistics

Prosjektbanken presenterer statistikk og informasjon om prosjekter med finansiering fra Forskningsrådet fra 2004. Statistikken er fordelt på blant annet tema, år, geografi og organisasjon. Prosjektbanken gir også detaljert informasjon om de enkelte prosjektene.

...or see the summary and other information about the projects you have selected

Portfolios

En god beskrivelse av denne siden for søkemotoroptimalisering

Forside

How the grants are distributed between organisations, counties, subject areas etc....

Here are some examples of searches you can perform in the Project Databank

All long term plan objectives

About Text Queries

No thematic area or topic related to the project

has received funding in the programme period

No popular science description is available

have received funding in the programme period

The project with project number {{project number}} was not found

Technical description

Woops, something went wrong. Please refresh the page. If the error persists, please contact us.

We could not find what you were looking for

See statistics related to this LTP objective

See projects related to this LTP objective

related to this LTP objective have received grants

has been granted to projects related to this LTP objective

has been granted to projects related to this portfolio

related to this portfolio have received grants

About Prosjektbanken

2004

Kunnskapsdepartement

Klima- og miljødepar

Nærings- og fiskerid

Utenriksdepartemente

Diverse

Finansinntekter

Landbruks- og matdep

Ukjent

Utdannings- og forsk

Samfunnsvitenskap

Matematikk og naturvitenskap

Oslo

LTP3 Styrket konkurransekraft og innovasjonsevne

LTP3 Et kunnskapsintensivt næringsliv i hele landet

LTP3 Høy kvalitet og tilgjengelighet

LTP3 Fagmiljøer og talenter

LTP3 Rettede internasjonaliseringstiltak

LTP3 Klima, miljø og energi

LTP3 Miljøvennlig energi og lavutslippsløsninger

LTP3 Klima, polar og miljø

LTP3 Bærekraftige byregioner og transportsystemer

LTP3 Samfunnssikkerhet og beredskap

LTP3 Samfunnsikkerhet, sårbarhet og konflikt

Instituttsektor

Portefølje Forskningssystemet

Portefølje Klima og miljø

Portefølje Mat og bioressurser

Portefølje Banebrytende forskning

Portefølje Energi og transport

Programmer

Kina

India

Forskerprosjekt

Ingen søknadstype

Politikk- og forvaltningsområder

Klima

Internasjonalisering

Naturmangfold og miljø

Globale utfordringer

Anvendt forskning

Klimarelevant forskning

Joint Programming Initiative (JPI) (ny fra 2014)

Kjønnsperspektiver i forskning

Kutt i utslipp av klimagasser

Bransjer og næringer

Grunnforskning

Energi

Implications of digital transformation for migrant labour

Accelerated by the Covid-19 pandemic, rapid digitalisation has fundamentally transformed European working conditions. While its positive consequences are well recognised, digital transformation also puts a sorely needed part of the European workforce at risk of unemployment, poverty and social exclusion. IDILAB (Implications of digital transformation for migrant labour) investigates the impacts that technological progress and subsequent structural changes have on the labour market integration of migrant workers. By developing a new methodological approach, IDILAB shall provide novel evidence on migrants’ exposure to the process of digitalisation, and formulate evidence-based and innovative policy options for the EU and national governments to improve on the scope and adequacy of national and European policy directed at encouraging a fair digital transition for all, including migrants. The proposed project will contribute with new knowledge on migrants’ own perspectives on barriers and enablers for a sustainable integration in a fast-changing labour market. I, the experienced researcher (Dr Olga Gheorghiev, the Czech Republic), will work with a European centre of excellence (the Research Centre for Digitalisation of Public Services and Citizenship (CEDIC, OsloMet, Norway), and the European Trade Union Institute (ETUI, Belgium) for intersectoral knowledge transfer, career development, and European added value.

CULTUral heritage in RurAL remote areas for creative tourism and sustainabilITY

The main objective of the project is to contribute to the promotion of cultural and creative tourism activities, considering the different capacities, resources, and specificities (material, creative, human...) of the territories, as a mean to help with the sustainable development of peripheral rural areas, favoring job creation and population settlement. For this, the potential of its cultural heritage will be researched, taking into account both the artisan material culture (techniques, materials, patterns and decorative elements), as well as the intangible culture (music, oral knowledge and culinary traditions) as a resource.
 
To promote non-seasonal tourism as a form of sustainable development with a stable population settlement we are going to research the crafts linked to the territory and their implications, but we will also carry out a documentation of the productive processes. First and foremost, we are going to cater to the necessities of the local communities and pay attention to aspects related to societal groups at risk of exclusion, such as women, the elderly and the youth.

All this will be developed from a multidisciplinary perspective, for which we will count on the various teams —most of them linked to different countries— that will be part of the consortium. Each of these partners will contribute to the development, as well as to the final result of the project through input directly related to their area of ??expertise: for example, among the collaborators we have intellectual teams specialized in the digitalization of heritage, research, or communication and dissemination, as well as as various institutions that will act as a testing ground for the more practical parts of the proposal. However, if something will characterize our work, it will be the constant collaboration between all parties, as well as the exchange of advice and experiences that will help to enrich collective knowledge and guarantee optimal results.

POWERING ARTISTIC AND CULTURAL ENTREPRENEURSHIP TO DRIVE THE CLIMATE TRANSITION

PACESETTERS responds to the abstract challenge of the climate transitions by shifting from a model of entrepreneurship based on individual, short-term incentives to one that is driven by co-agency and new capacities to act together in sustainable ways. It does so by examining the concrete circumstances, investigating possible support mechanisms and stress-testing instruments that enable art and culture, creativity and heritage to drive the climate transition.
Therefore, PACESETTERS will set out to:
-Create knowledge from collaborative research to keep pace with the transition
-Propose and test creative business models to set the pace of the transition
-Assess strategies of valorisation to push the pace of the transition
 
This approach will identify and analyse advanced practices that run transversally across the cultural and creative sectors; contextualise the outcomes of co-research in real-world laboratories for social imagination; further develop and promote the preliminary results of experiments in iterative support and evaluation frames. The PACESETTERS approach centres on inclusion, participation and iteration in order ensure that gender equity and diversity inform it at every step and on every level.

The result will be a critical evaluation and all-encompassing demonstration of the actual potentials of the CCIs to drive the climate transition while systematically analysing their impact on micro-, meso- and macro-level:
-Understanding the climate transition as a triple transition: green, digital and inclusive
-Innovating aPACESETTERS responds to the abstract challenge of the climate transitions by shifting from a model of entrepreneurship based on individual, short-term incentives to one that is driven by co-agency and new capacities to act together. It does so by examining the concrete circumstances, investigating possible support mechanisms and stress-testing instruments that enable art and culture, creativity and heritage to drive the climate transition.

Strengthening resilience and mental wellbeing through the Support4Resilience toolbox for leaders in elderly care

European elderly care experiences labor shortages, lack of qualified workers and a mismatch between capacity and demands, causing stress, burnout, and reduced mental wellbeing among healthcare workers and informal caregivers. Leaders are crucial in promoting supportive working conditions but lack research-based measures to act upon these challenges.

Support4Resilience (S4R) will develop, implement, and evaluate a research-based Toolbox to support healthcare leaders in improving healthcare workers’ and informal caregivers’ resilience and mental wellbeing in elderly care. S4R will identify resilience and mental wellbeing factors among healthcare workers and informal caregivers; explore their perspectives and needs; develop new theory on the relationship between individual and organizational resilience, and mental wellbeing; and develop recommendations and cost-effective interventions. The Toolbox with tailormade resources for policy and practical use will be available through an open access S4R Resource Bank.

The S4R Toolbox includes three main tools: 1) Mapping and identification, 2) Reflection and education, and 3) Reorganization. Measures are initiated at the organizational level and effects on mental wellbeing and resilience transpire at the frontline of elderly care. The Toolbox covers different situational contexts, types of healthcare providers and health system levels. Elderly care settings in six European countries will implement and evaluate the Toolbox through a process evaluation, effectiveness evaluation, and cost-effectiveness evaluation. 

S4R provides policymakers, decisions-makers and leaders with solutions for taking action to solve specific risks for healthcare workers’ and informal caregivers’ resilience and mental wellbeing. Thus, pertinent to the work programme, S4R will support the development of resilient health systems in European elderly care through improved leadership capabilities, governance structures, and adaptive capacities.

Providing research infrastructure services to support Next Generation EU

This four-year project will harness outputs from key social science RIs in Europe and other reliable sources to support the aims of the ‘Next Generation EU’ programme and to inform EU youth policy. Virtual access will be provided to the outputs through special installations (portals) developed during the project. The core of the proposal is a set of existing research ‘services’, which will be re-purposed and customised to focus directly on the five themes: Make it Green; Make it Digital; Make it Healthy; Make it Strong; and Make it Equal. 

For each area, the consortium will work collaboratively to produce seven sets of resources:

i)	A searchable inventory of relevant variables drawn from multiple cross-national datasets; 

ii)	Analytical summaries, suitable for policy makers and analysts new to the field, as well as interactive resources available through the project portal;

iii)	Harmonised and merged extracts from these datasets that reduce the burden on analysts and increase sample sizes;

iv)	New data collected through the ESS’s established CRONOS web panel infrastructure. Eleven countries will field five waves of the panel, each one dedicated to a NextGenEU theme. Free and rapid access to the data will be available through the CRONOS portal alongside analytical summaries;

v)	In-person and virtual deliberative forums with young people (aged 18-34) in four countries covering the five Next Generation EU’ themes;

vi)	An educational tool (E-NextGen) channelling our data for use in classrooms and by the general public;

vii)	Comprehensive training materials related to all project outputs.


Mapping of Longitudinal data of Inequalities in Education

The MapIE project aims to identify mechanisms causing educational inequalities and policies or interventions compensating for them. We do a systematic review of how these have been studied internationally using longitudinal designs. We map existing longitudinal data that we describe in a public metadata database, and we analyse them to describe the mechanisms of inequalities and to identify effective policies and interventions in different local contexts. We focus on the contextual differences between the Nordic and Central European countries that have structurally different education systems. Within national contexts and using comparative research designs, we look at system-, regional- and school-level policies and practices and individual-level factors (e.g. socioeconomic status, immigrant background, gender, special educational needs) that are associated with the development of educational inequalities and the successful prevention of achievement gaps. We publish and disseminate the empirical results of the project through multiple channels to scientific audiences, policy makers and the wider public. At the end, we create a public framework for studying educational inequalities longitudinally in future studies, acknowledging the role of local contexts but aiming for comparability at the European level. 

We implement the project in seven work packages. Our consortium consists of internationally acknowledged experts in large-scale educational assessment research from Finland, Sweden, Norway, Hungary and Luxembourg/Germany. The partners have a long-standing history of collaboration with each other, European researchers, and national and international education policy makers, and they bring extensive longitudinal datasets to the project. The project will considerably strengthen the knowledge base of what shapes educational outcomes over time, how to best support the learning of all students and how to reduce education inequalities in the short, medium and long term.

Contextualized pathways to reduce housing inequalities in the green and digital transition.

The project Reducing housing inequalities in the green and digital transition (ReHousIn) is committed to better understand the impacts of recent crises on housing inequalities across different European regions, especially with regard to the implementation of the green transition launched by the EU. The overall aim is to explore the mechanisms affecting the (re)production of housing inequalities under recent crisis conditions, and the impacts of the EU induced green transition in different national contexts and along different degrees of urbanisation. Based on a contextualized and comparative understanding of the mechanisms (re)producing housing inequalities, ReHousIn inquiries into multi-level pathways and inclusive local housing initiatives to spark innovative EU, national and local policy solutions towards inclusionary and quality housing, mitigating the possible negative impacts of the EU induced green transition. It conducts a comparative, multi-level analysis in 9 European countries – Austria, France, Hungary, Italy, Norway, Poland, Spain, Switzerland, United Kingdom – focusing on attractive metropolitan regions, middle-sized cities and rural areas by means of a mixed-method project design. A quantitative data analysis on recent trends in housing inequalities and their relation to crises across different levels of urbanization will provide the framework for 27 local cases studies in which the impact of multi-level trajectories of housing-system, welfare regimes and environmental policy instrumentations on the (re)production of local housing inequalities and the emergence of inclusive housing initiatives are analyzed. Based on this, ReHousIn compares mechanisms of differentiation feeding into policy labs, aiming to formulate recommendations on how to tackle negative social externalities related the EU green transition at EU, national and local levels.

Strategies for achieving equity and inclusion in education, training and learning in democratic Europe

STRIDE will provide a new, comprehensive and comparative knowledge-base on effective education reforms, policy initiatives and interventions aimed at reducing inequalities in education, training and learning outcomes in Europe. STRIDE will do this through analyses of education reforms in national and regional systems, existing large-scale educational assessment data and existing longitudinal data on the causal link between educational and other social policies and inequalities in educational achievements. In examining the learning progress of students over time, STRIDE will closely examine to the range of intersectional variables such as socio-economic background, gender, (dis)abilities, migration status, home language, early childhood education and care (ECEC) attendance, which may affect learning outcomes in different ways in different contexts. The project will combine diverse methods, data and disciplines (comparative education, political science, education science, sociology) in innovative ways: mapping at national and regional levels on (1) education reforms in the past 25 years by policy analysis, (2) longitudinal trends of inequalities in educational achievement by quasi-experiment analysis of existing large-scale educational assessment data, and (3) effect of education reforms and interventions by analysis existing longitudinal data and registry data following student cohorts over time combined with a qualitative inquiry into policymakers' perspective. Through the involvement of national and European stakeholders, STRIDE will develop methodology and assessment tools for policy learning offering policymakers a toolbox of enhanced knowledge of what shapes educational outcomes over time and demonstrating the usefulness of longitudinal data in policy-making to reduce educational inequalities in the short, medium and long term.

dialoguing@rts – Advancing Cultural Literacy for Social Inclusion through Dialogical Arts Education

d@rts is a catalyst for increasing social cohesion and inclusion, using embodied performing arts activities to develop cognitive and affective cultural literacy. We recognise that the performing arts encompass mass-market consumer goods, as well as non-linguistic, embodied and social activities, providing massive opportunities for inclusive participation.
Our target groups comprise actors of all ages and social positions, especially in the school system and in community arts initiatives. We will empower these groups to be artistically active, dialogically related and culturally literate, giving them tools and motivation to improve their own situations and those of others within the overall frame of a cohesive European society, informed by global perspectives.
Using the post-colonial insight that culture is necessarily heterogeneous, d@rts has four related objectives:
1. Understand how performing arts activities relate to cultural literacy in official discourse and documents across partner countries
2. Use this understanding to build dialogues and co-create physical and digital actions with heterogeneous groups within our target audience
3. Develop assessment tools for these actions, enabling measurable growth in cultural literacy
4. Use our findings in recommendations for cultural and educational policies that build long-term social cohesion and inclusion
Based on these objectives, the overall outputs comprise:
1. Documentary, survey and participatory research findings
2. Performative DIALOGART actions for cultural literacy
3. Policy and practice recommendations to increase social cohesion via cultural literacy actions inspired by the performing arts
d@rts imagines new futures and creates hope and social cohesion through performing arts education. By creating participatory spaces and facilitating dialogues, we empower voices seldom heard. d@rts thus advances cultural literacy, and enhances social cohesion and resilience, to build an inclusive future for Europe.

REGULAR AND UNPLANNED CARE ADAPTIVE DASHBOARD FOR CROSS–BORDER EMERGENCIES

During cross-border health emergencies, health and care services may be overwhelmed by high numbers of patients requiring unplanned care. Delays and backlogs in regular care, as a result of the stretched health care system, leave millions of patients with regular care needs unattended, resulting in disastrous healthcare outcomes. If poor healthcare outcomes across the population are to be avoided, healthcare systems must become more resilient and flexible and allow for rapid changes in the care delivery services. RAPIDE’s aim is to develop, validate and demonstrate a portfolio of powerful tools that enable healthcare systems to build in robustness of decisions, resilience of the health care professionals and patients and flexibility in the modalities of care delivery, thereby maintaining access to regular care during health emergencies. 

RAPIDE emphasises opportunities for optimising in-hospital care, but also for relocating care from hospitals to community and home environments without loss of care quality. Thus, the project focuses on two closely-linked challenges – 1: Identifying and predicting how much care, and which care, needs to be moved along the care chain; 2: Identifying and verifying effective, feasible and acceptable ways to make this reconfiguration of care a reality. This will be achieved by (a) resource modelling, which builds comprehensive foresight and forecasting solutions and links them to patient flows optimization, along the whole chain of care, (b) selecting and implementing the best available tools to deliver regular care in new ways. To ensure usability, acceptability and equitable real-world value, RAPIDE will be co-designed and co-validated with stakeholders, from patients, GPs, clinicians and hospital managers to health ministries, pandemic-management and public health agencies. A Table Top Exercise and extensive communication and dissemination will raise awareness of the project’s successes.

Midlene fra FISSION-5.02 Nuclear Fission and Radiation Protection fordelt på år

Midlene fra FISSION-5.02 Nuclear Fission and Radiation Protection fordelt på fylker

Midlene fra FISSION-5.02 Nuclear Fission and Radiation Protection fordelt på fagområde

Prospective cohort study of residents near the Semipalatinsk nuclear test site - feasibility

I perioden 1992-2009 hadde hele 85 prosent av verdens nasjoner en lav selvforsyningsgrad
eller bare et marginalt kornoverskudd og er dermed sårbare for en global reduksjon i
kornproduksjonen. Et fåtall land dominerer den internasjonale handelen med korn, som USA
for mais og hvete og Thailand for ris. Om de kan opprettholde sin overskuddsproduksjon er
viktig for global matforsyning, men samtidig er det en politisk risiko knyttet til lav
selvforsyning. For Kina med 7 prosent av verdens matjord og 18 prosent av verdens
befolkning er framtidig matproduksjon under endret klima et presserende tema.
Flere studier viser at klimaendringer kan gi betydelig reduksjon i kornproduksjonen de neste
tiårene. Vi har sett på virkningen av klimaendringer på 140 land ved 3 ulike klimascenarioer -
RCP2.6, RCP4.5 og RCP8.5. Disse scenarioene ble utviklet under arbeidet med Det internasjonale
klimapanelets 5. rapport og gjenspeiler baner hvor global middeltemperatur ventes å
holde seg innenfor rammer av henholdsvis 1.0, 1.4 og 2.0 grader oppvarming rundt år 2050
sammenlignet med perioden 1986-2005.
Globalt viser det seg at kornproduksjonen reduseres med 6 prosent i 2050, selv i det laveste
klimascenarioet, hvor utslippene holder global oppvarming godt under 2 grader. I det høyeste
utslippsscenarioet avtar den hele 10 prosent. For å forstå hva dette kan innebære for
matsikkerhet er det viktig å ta høyde for at de samfunnsmessige virkningene ikke direkte
gjenspeiler de fysiske effektene på planteveksten og matproduksjon
Vi tok utgangspunkt i ulike klimascenarioer og sporet effekten av fallet i produktiviteten i
kornproduksjonen på sosioøkonomiske forhold ved bruk av en økonomisk modell. På denne
måten fanger vi opp virkninger av tiltak som produsenter og forbrukere gjør for å
opprettholdes sin levestandard til tross for reduserte kornavlinger.
Når kornproduksjonen reduseres, vil kornprisen øke. Bøndene oppmuntres av økte priser til å
demme opp for tapet av avling ved å sette inn mer ressurser som arbeidskraft, innsatsvarer og
investeringer. Det er også mulig for bøndene å legge mer vekt på kornslag og andre
jordbruksprodukter som er mer robust overfor varmere klima. Forbrukerne kan erstatte eller
supplere korn med andre matvarer. Slike tilpasninger gjorde at et globalt avlingstap på 6-10%
i 2050 ble dempet til 1-2% (Wei et al 2019). De enkelte landenes selvforsyningsgrad påvirkes
i ulik grad, men relativt moderat (-5 til +5 prosentpoeng). Tilpasningen blant bønder som
respons på høyere priser motvirker en vesentlig del av de negative virkningene på avlingene.
Selv om bønder generelt øker sin inntekt vil mange land oppleve at bruttonasjonal-produktet
(BNP) avtar på grunn av økte matpriser som driver opp lønns- og kostnadsnivå. I Nord-
Amerika, Vest-Europa Brasil, Sør Afrika og Australia øker BNP med økte priser på eksport
av korn til Russland, Øst-Asia, Pakistan, Sørøst-Asia og Latin-Amerika.
For småbønder uten adgang til markeder og som produserer for eget forbruk vil
klimaendringene slå direkte ut i mattilgangen. Fattige i byene vil møte økte matvarepriser ofte
uten kompensasjon i form av økte lønninger. Følgelig er det viktig å sikre utsatte grupper og
områder kjøpekraft til å møte klimaendringenes virkning på produktiviteten i
matproduksjonen. Økonomisk vekst og inntektsutjevning står følgelig fram som noen av de
viktigste tiltak mot virkninger av klimaendringer.

HIWAVES3 facilitates a dialogue between climate modelers, impact modelers and partners in different geographical regions with knowledge of local societal relevant meteorological events to construct stories of selected high-impact extreme events, simulated for present-day and future climate conditions. The story includes the origin of the extreme event from a meteorological perspective, its inter-regional linkages, its predictability, its societal impact and how climate change affects its magnitude and probability. Such stories are effective communication means, more so than bare numbers about the expected mean temperature increase, precipitation changes in percentage and such. Based on surveys, extreme summer events with large societal impacts, like droughts and floods, will be selected from the recent past for China, India and Europe. Similar events will be identified in large ensembles of global climate simulations. Using empirical methods and process-based models, the impact on crop yields and economy will be estimated as well as the number of premature deaths. Using large ensembles under projected 2050 conditions the effect of climate change on these extremes and their impacts will be analysed. This research material is translated into powerful stories about concrete events that illustrate how climate affects man, man affects climate, how different geographical regions are connected and how extreme the weather might get. The meteorological data of these events will be made available for further impact studies.

High Impact Weather Events in EurAsia Selected, Simulated and Storified

Populærvitenskapelig sammendrag
I 2014 rangerte tidsskriftet The Economist 1-barnspolitikken I Kina som verdens tredje viktigste tiltak når det gjaldt å unngå utslippet av klimagasser, etter Montreal-protokollen mot ozon-skadelige kjemikalier og framveksten av kjernekraft og vannkraft. Dette illustrerer med all tydelighet at befolkningsvekst er en sterk driver av global oppvarming, og at befolkningsutviklingen også vil ha stor betydning fro klimaet framover.
Befolkningsveksten avtar i de fleste områder i verden, men ingen steder så raskt som i Kina. Den ventede baby-boomen da 2-barnspolitikken ble innført i 2017 uteble. I løpet av vår prosjektperiode har det blitt enda tydeligere at sosioøkonomiske rammebetingelser som boligpriser, arbeidsforhold, reisetider til arbeidssted hindrer både 2-barnsfamilier og reproduksjon ? selv for mange med høy utdanning og stabile arbeidsforhold. Sosial infrastruktur for barnehager og familieliv har ikke blitt prioritert gjennom 3 tiår med høy økonomisk vekst. Kinas befolkning ventes å nå toppen rundt 2030 og andelen eldre 65 år og eldre vil være så henimot 30 prosent. Nærmest ubegrenset tilgang på arbeidskraft har lenge gitt Kina ekstra vekstkraft, men etter 2011 har arbeidsstyrken avtatt.  Dette kan ventes å få global betydning ? Kina er en stor eksportør og i seg selv et enormt marked. 
Spørsmål om total befolkningsstørrelse sier oss nok om potensialet for å produsere og konsumerer framover, og hva klimaeffekten framover kan bli. For å vurdere dette bruker vi en global økonomisk modell i kombinasjon med en demografisk modell. Beregninger viser at demografiske detaljer som aldersfordelingen innen yrkesbefolkningen og yrkesdeltakelsen innen aldersklasser har stor betydning for utviklingen i økonomisk vekst og utslipp av klimagasser. 
For Kina vil projeksjoner der vekst i arbeidsstyrken antas å følge vekst i hele befolkningen overvurderer økonomisk vekst sammenliknet med et scenario der arbeidsstyrken beregnes ut fra aldersklassers yrkesdeltakelse.   BNP overvurderes så mye som 10-15 prosent for Kina i 2050 og  rundt 5 prosent for verden som helhet. Bare India med sin unge befolkning vil undervurdere den framtidige veksten (4-8 prosent). 
CO2-utslippene til Kina vil være overvurdert med 5-8 prosent i 2050. En konklusjon for Kinas vedkommende vil være at framtidige utslipp av CO2 kan være klart overvurdert hvis ikke demografiske detaljer som aldersstruktur og tilhørende yrkesdeltakelse blir tatt hensyn til i scenarioer.  
Aldring kan også påvirke økonomisk utvikling og klima via endringer i forbruksmønsteret. Vi har analysert statistisk hvordan alder og kjønn påvirker forbruket i en gjennomsnittshusholdning. I tillegg tar vi hensyn til at forbruksmønsteret påvirkes av urbanisering og kjønn. Å skille mellom kjønn kan være viktig for Kina som lenge har hatt en skjev gutt-jente fordeling blant nyfødte. For hver kategori av konsumgoder endres etterspørselen over livsløpet og det er markert forskjell mellom by og land. 
Endringer i total befolkningsstørrelse påvirker forbruket i husholdningene langt mindre enn virkningen av aldring og urbanisering. Det betyr at totalt privat konsum er relativt stabilt under vekslende befolkningsprojeksjoner og nivået på økonomisk vekst. 
Vår studie viser at innføring av en grunnpensjon som matcher fattigdomsgrensen for befolkningen på landsbygda vil gi marginalt utslag på økonomisk vekst, og bidra til høyere inntektsnivå blant landbefolkningen, men den er ikke bærekraftig hvis befolkningsutviklingen følger en lav bane. 
I tilfellet med lav befolkningsvekst senkes BNP 2.5% i 2050.  Å øke pensjonsalderen til 65 år vil gi henimot 3 prosent høyere BNP i 2050 og kompensere for en lav befolkningsvekst

Demographic development is an important driver of economic growth. The size of the work force largely determines the production capacity and the gender and age balances affect the composition of demand, the saving rate and requirement for pensions and social services. 
The question we raise in this proposal is: What are the implications for greenhouse gas emissions and global climate of various prospects of population paths, including age and gender biases in China? This issue is of global dimension and interest as China is accounting for 27 per cent of global CO2 emissions. Further, economic activities and emissions worldwide might be affected as  China has 12 per cent of global GDP and 10 per cent of world export. 
We will study to what extent the ageing of China might affect economic growth, energy use and climate emissions, taking into account the age and gender composition and based on various assumptions on demographic development and population policies. We will adopt an overlapping generation (OLG) version of a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for China and make scenario analyses along population and policy scenarios, including climate policies. Based on scenarios from the integrated economy-demography model we will calculate the future emissions paths and run climate models for climate impact assessment.

Ageing population and social reforms in China: Consequences for economic growth and global climate

Tidligere studier av sammenhengen mellom klimaendringer og kornproduksjon har det til felles at de baserer seg på data for større regioner. Men ekstremvær rammer vanligvis mindre områder, slik at virkningene på avlinger lett viskes ut på regionnivå. Vi studerte derfor virkningen av ekstremvær basert på data for maisavling per arealenhet for gårdsbruk i Shanxi-provinsen i Kina.
Ekstremvær ble definert som ekstrem tørke, hetebølger og kalde dager. Mais vist seg å være spesielt sensitiv overfor økning i antall dager med ekstrem varme, det vil si dager med temperatur over 29 grader, et terskelnivå som ofte brukes innen denne forskningen. Klima-data for landsbyer som deltok i studien ble hentet fra observasjonspunkter fra Meteorologisk Institutt i Kina. Studien brukte både klimavariable og data for bruk av innsatsfaktorer i maisproduksjonen for å forklare utviklingen i maisavling per arealenhet. Tall for faktorinnsatsen samles ikke inn i de faste undersøkelsene av produksjon og leveforhold på landsbygda i Kina, men ble hentet fra en tidligere studie av gårdsdrift og energibruk for en undergruppe av husholdninger i Shanxi-provinsen. Resultatene bekreftet de negative effektene av ekstremvær på maisavlinger fra studier på provinsnivå. En ekstra dag med tørke kan gi 0.5 -1.2 prosent nedgang i avlingen. Resultatene peker også mot at mais har blitt mer sensitiv for hete etter 2003, men dette tilsløres av at avlingen per arealenhet faktis økte med 20 prosent på grunn av økt bruk av gjødsel og sprøytemidler. Evnen til å opprettholde denne veksten kan imidlertid være begrenset, noe som kan tydeliggjøre virkninger av klimaendringer framover.
Når det gjelder bidrag til kunnskapsbasen er det spesielt interessant at studien testet ulike nivåer for å sette grensen mellom middels og høy temperatur som definerer ekstrem varme. Vår studie fant at 27 grader er det beste anslaget for perioden ette 2003, ikke 29 grader som er brukt i tidligere studier.

Climate change has already had a substantial impact on Chinese agriculture. There is considerable concern about future food security and a stated demand for policies for adaptation to natural constraints imposed by escalating climate change.

The project  will identify major climate stresses on Chinese agriculture and analyze the potential future consequences of an even warmer future as outlined by recent climate scenarios. Climate effects on yields will be subject to statistical analysis, based on histori c and spatial records, taking development in agricultural resource use and technology into account. A model for analysis of future climate impacts and the effects of adaptation will be developed. Important adaptation measures considered are investments in  irrigation infrastructure, changing cropping patterns and introduction of new crop varieties.

The results of the statistical study will be combined with additional knowledge from agro-ecological research into a more detailed partial model with emphasis  on economic incentives for farming, allowing for a more holistic approach to assess the role of production costs and government interventions. Further, the role of agriculture and climate change in the national economy will be studied by means of a comput able general equilibrium model (CGE). Effects on the national economy occur via prices on food and raw materials, rural-urban migration and external trade. The CGE for China is developed in the project to specifically cover agriculture and the indirect ef fects on the national economy.

Climate change and Chinese agriculture: Effects on food production and options for adaptation

The main focus of this project is to improve the knowledge basis for greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios for China and India by considering a wider set of emissions and by studying the impact of the development process and policies of China and India  on global warming. 

A core issue in global warming and climate policy is the future role of large developing economies like China and India. Economic development will go along with increasing, but more efficient energy use, which at first hand seems prom ising for climate mitigation. However, emissions from energy use contain a set of emission species that work with different warming potential and some of them even with a cooling effect. It is therefore essential for global climate research to sort out th e sources and trends in various emissions components and to identify emission drivers, in particular for countries like China and India, where a rural population of more than a billion people rapidly might change their energy use and climate footprint. 

 The project will carry out statistical surveys of residential energy use to identify differences in demand characteristics by rural and urban populations. Advanced measurements of emissions from different stoves will be carried out for GHGs including spec ies that might contribute to climate cooling. Improved data on residential energy use and emissions will be incorporated in CGEs for the two countries for emission scenario development and policy analysis. A global climate model (C2M2) will be used to cal culate changes in the global temperature across emissions scenarios, and to assess impacts on global warming from policies aiming at poverty reduction.

FISSION-5.02 Nuclear Fission and Radiation Protection

Prospective cohort study of residents near the Semipalatinsk nuclear test site - feasibility

Awarded: NOK 0

Summary

Funding scheme:

FISSION-5.02 Nuclear Fission and Radiation Protection

Funding Sources

Thematic Areas and Topics