Microbiological risk assessment in food safety; Sources of importance for the increased incidence of campylobacteriosis in humans

1. Data from various epidemiological studies need to be translated into statistical distributions using appropriate software (Palisade Decision Tools). Of special concern is the translation of results frame "black box" epidemiological studies into distrib utions with their uncertainty and variance. This work will include Campylobacter-prevalence data in domestic and imported food, animals and water, consumption data, imported volume of food and other population data.2. Based upon distributions created, a s tochastic risk assessment model will be established, covering the whole range of possible sources. Of special concern will be to identify the effects of uncertainty (precision) and variability (validity) on the outcome (predicted incidence of Campylob act er infections in humans.)3. Results from the chicken control program will be used to assess the cost-benefit of the program, to be used as a guide for the industry and the authorities in future control programs.