Norwegian Component of the Ecosystem Studies of Sub-Arctic Seas (NESSAS)

The overall goal of NESSAS is to quantify the impact of climate variability on the structure and function of the Barents Sea marine ecosystem in order to predict the ecosystem response to possible future climate change and its possible economic impact. T he program will use past and ongoing projects as well as undertake new research to address some of the gaps in our knowledge regarding the climate forcing of the physical oceanography of the Barents Sea and their impacts on the ecosystem. This will inclu de a combination of retrospective analyses and modelling. The information on processes and mechanisms linking climate and ecosystem responses will be used to extend and improve the existing models before making quatitative predictions on the ecosystem response to future climate scenarios. This will include chan ges to the fish and invertebrate stocks. Many of the models that will be used have been developed under previous projects and will be modified, where needed, to address the specific issues within NESSAS. The economic impact of the expected changes in the fish stocks under various chlimate chang e scenarios on the value of the fisheries , fleet structure and plant processing capabilities will also be addressed. In addition, comparisons with other Sub-Arctic Seas such as the Bering Sea, the Labrador Shelf, the shelves off West Greenland and Icela nd, the Sea of Okhotsk and the Oyashio region will be made in order to gain insight into the functioning of Sub-Arctic Seas in general and the Barents Sea in particular. This project will form the major contribution of Norway to the new international GLO BEC regional program entitled Ecosystem Studies of Sub-Arctic Seas (ESSAS).