Using the ensemble approach to model Arctic species distributions to reconstruct past climate based on plant macrofossils

To assess the sensitivity of species in the Arctic area to climate change it is important to understand the relationship between species distributions and climate. Recently, there has been a major development within species-climate modelling with the ense mble approach developed by Araújo and New (2007). This approach takes advantage of the uncertainties that are inherent to modelling the relationship between species and climate. This is done by sampling across the different units that make up a model seve ral times and makes it possible to produce multiple, or an ensemble of results. This means that it is not necessary to rely on a single model result, and improved inferences can be made based on the data. By digitising distribution maps of a selection of Arctic species, a data-base of species presence can be created. This data can be used to explore and analyse species distribution in the Arctic, and quantify the relationship between species distribution and climate variables within the ensemble-approa ch framework. The result can contribute to existing knowledge of species-climate relationships on a circumpolar scale. This will be a valuable contribution to ecologists and palaeoecologists working in Arctic areas, and will greatly improve my contributio n to ARCTREC (NFR number 178760/S30). The expertise needed to use the ensemble approach is not available at the University of Bergen or in Norway. This application is to give me the opportunity to learn this approach from Miguel Araújo, the world's exper t in the field of species-distribution modelling in the very active and international research environment of the Biodiversity and Global Change Research Group at the National Museum of Natural Sciences of Madrid.