What comes next? How the Arab revolutions are shaping the new Middle East (188995)

This book examines the effects of the 2011 Arab uprisings on the Middle East and North African oil producing countries and discusses implications for their long-term stability. Between the extremes of on the one hand an outdated rentier determinism overstating the ability of regimes to buy their way out of any challenge, and on the other sanguine predictions of the imminent fall of GCC dominos, the book seeks a fine-tuned inward comparative focus leading to a more precise understanding of the political effects of oil in different oil producing countries. Inevitably the effects both of the Arab uprisings and of the oil income are shaped according to national social and historical particularities. Yet, while acknowledging the continued relevance of the "rentier bargain" in preserving the status quo, most contributions point to the increasing frailty of the politico-economic formula that has until now worked to keep the regimes from being seriously challenged.

The momentous unfolding in the Middle East this year have not only challenged political regimes, but also the current literature on Middle East politics. This project will critically evaluate the rentier state theory's claim that oil makes states independ ent of society. The proposed project will unite leading Middle East experts in Norway in a joint reflection on the consequences of the Arab revolutions for the Middle East and North Africa oil states. It will produce a book and present its findings in an open academic conference, tailored to the user groups. Special attention will be given to the three main factors of; 1) youth mobilization; 2) Islamist forces; and 3) economic constraints. The main research question is: "How have the Arab revolutions af fected political dynamics in the Middle East and North Africa oil states" Through the individual projects, the following sub-questions will be explored: 1. How will the mobilization of youth affect state-society relations? 2. How will the dominan t position of Islamists of various hues within civil society affect the political future of the region? 3. How do economic constraints affect the prospects of the Arab revolutions? The project will work from the following hypotheses: - The Arab revo lutions have transformed hitherto fragmented and marginalized groups of young people into movements that give youth political agency and are challenging the neo-patriarchal political order. - Although mainstream Islamists will be a factor helping the tran sition to stable democratic rule, free elections enables mobilization of conservative Salafi-forces which may have the opposite effect. - Expectations of improved living conditions will be higher in the Arab revolutions than what the production apparatus can achieve. Although the rentier states are better placed than other countries, new leaders facing mounting political pressures will seek ?quick solutions? in distributing oil money.