Adapting Coastal Zone Management to Ocean Acidification

The goal of this project has been to study how sustainable governance of the coastal areas may help mitigate the negative consequences of ocean acidification. There is a general lack of knowledge about the ocean acidification (OA) processes and impacts in coastal waters. If this knowledge is to be applicable to coastal zone management, it needs to be co-produced with the people who are going to apply it. Therefore, the researchers in the project have cooperated closely with stakeholders involved in coastal zone management. In 2016, three stakeholder input workshops were organized: two in Bergen and Rosendal for the case in Sunnhordland and one in Leknes for the Lofoten case. These were followed up by three case-vise scenario workshops in the autumn of 2017. This approach to co-production of knowledge has now been published in a scientific article. As an indicator of the relevance of the last point, Vestvågøy Municipality (the Lofoten case area) have included the OA-model results from Buksnesfjorden in a new municipal plan for sewage and wastewater. The stations that the project established in the fjord will also be used in a new monitoring program. In the final year of the project, the researchers have assessed two models for how to incorporate OA into coastal zone management, either as a part of the municipal coastal zone planning or as a part of water management under the water framework directive. The latter would require that OA is defined as a water quality issue at the national level, or preferably at the EU-level. On the basis of the work done to assess the current coastal zone management and the discussion about OA impacts from the workshops and interviews, the project concludes that the latter option is the most feasible approach to managing coastal OA. We also discuss the potential for adaptive co-management (ACM) as a framework for managing coastal OA, as a supplement to water management. Adaptive co-management is appropriate for OA where the need for knowledge generation and governing is particularly pressing and where the inclusion of multiple stakeholders enables the management approaches to complex non-linear issues. Also, it requires much more comprehensive stakeholder participation than today?s coastal management. The result of our analysis of how OA should be managed is included in three journal articles. One of these is submitted, and two are still in progress. Also, our recommendations based on this work is published in a policy brief. Within ACIDCOAST, NIVA has developed a new 800m-resolution marine physical-biogeochemical model (ROHO800) for the coastal ocean/fjord region centred on Hardangerfjord (Rogaland-Hordaland, Figure1). This includes the southern case study region (Kvinnheradsfjord). This model has now been successfully run for a hindcast period (2002-2015). Ideally, we would like to downscale global changes to the fjords by running high-res coastal models such as ROHO800 continuously into the future. However, this presents several difficulties regarding computational costs and the production of bias-corrected forcings and boundary conditions for the projections. The use a high-resolution fjord model yields crucial new information on the seasonality of coastal acidification, which in turn can lead to revised estimates of the years when ?critical thresholds? are crossed. In our case, for example, projections derived from the fjord model using a delta change approach predicted that the water at 10 m in Kvinnheradsfjord will become seasonally undersaturated with respect to aragonite (wintertime ?(ar)<1) during 2030-2040; using only the basin-scale model, the water at 10 m remains perennially supersaturated beyond 2050. The model will be presented in a scientific article under preparation. In regard to the northern case study region, we have developed a kelp-urchin dynamical model to study the regrowth of kelp forest under climate change and ocean acidification. This model has been used to project the impacts of climate change and ocean acidification on urchin harvest yield and optimal harvesting restrictions. This work has been presented in a submitted journal article and is also included in an article included in the AMAP OA report published in 2018. Results from the project regarding the improved understanding of the response of coastal Norway to ocean acidification have been incorporated into an evaluation of habitat changes for benthic species on Arctic Shelves (article submitted). An evaluation of the Acidcoast process, in community decision-making in targeting habitat evaluations for coastal Norway identified that coproduction of knowledge resulted in more informed, relevant simulations of ocean acidification, is also under preparation as an article. In March, Researchers from Norway and Scotland met in Edinburgh for a successful workshop on this topic. A workshop report has been produced, and a scientific article has been submitted.

- Økt kunnskap og kompetanse om havforsuring hos brukerpartnere fra kommuner, fylkeskommuner, fylkesmenn, vannområdeforvaltning, interessorganisasjoner og havbruksbedrifter. - Økt bevistheten om havforsuringsutfordringen i de to case-områdene ved hjelp av åpne møter i regi av prosjektet, involvering av lokale brukerpartnere og medieoppslag. - I fremlegg til avløpsplan for Vestvågøy kommune er havforsuring og prosjektets målinger omtalt, og alternative lokaliseringer med andre resipienter er foreslått som følge av dette. - Målepunktene som ble brukt i prosjektet i Buksnesfjorden blir videreført i et nytt fordovervåklningsprosjekt i Nordland fylke. -Havforsuring er tematisert i den nye vannforvaltningsplanen i Nordland fylke. -Erfaringene brukermedvirkning har blitt rapportert til International Oceanographic Commision som en metode for måling, monitorering og rapportering av pH for FNs bærekraftsmål 14.3

Ocean acidification (OA) in concert with climate change and other anthropogenic stressors will lead to unprecedented and profound changes in coastal ecosystems. There is little knowledge of the processes of OA in Norwegian coastal areas, about the potential consequences, to what extent OA will interact with other ecosystem stressors, and how society may respond to this situation. Sustainable management of the coastal areas therefore hinge on the ability to address and mitigate OA and OA impacts. In order to make OA a governable issue, this project will produce more knowledge about OA in the coastal zone, and gain new insight into how this knowledge can be co-produced with those who uses it for governance and industry purposes. OA and climate change add uncertainties on several levels for coastal zone management, which raises the need for better knowledge on how governance regimes can operate in an effective way given such uncertainties. Through two case studies and measurements in coastal areas in southern and northern Norway, the proposed project will provide new knowledge about OA and OA impacts on coastal areas and develop models for how this knowledge can be used for coastal management. A sustainable economic development in Norway depends on well-functioning coastal zone management that are able to effectively respond to OA and other drivers of change. This project will contribute new and relevant knowledge to ensure such management. The project will also assess the ability of coastal management institutions to adapt to OA in a situation involving complex uncertainties. The studies in Norway will be complemented by a knowledge exchange wp with Scotland, which will allow for comparisons across different coastal management systems facing similar OA-challenges. Stakeholder representatives will be involved at all stages of the project. It is a transdisciplinary project, including marine scientists, anthropologists and environmental governance scholars.