EU-STRA-Strålevern

In serious cases of nuclear emergency the handling of the situation very often has to take into account large uncertainties. In particular when it comes to forecasts of the spread of nuclear pollution in the environment. This project deals with the handling of these uncertainty in the atmospheric modelling of spread. Uncertain information related to, for instance, incomplete information on the source term and the prevailing weather can result in dose assessments that differ dramatically from reality. Uncertainty is also an intrinsic part of model parameters. This can lead to wrong decisions e.g. too conservative or optimistic predictions and inadequately accounting of risks. Therefore, the reduction of uncertainty, and how to deal with uncertain information, is essential to improve decision making for the protection of the affected population and to minimize disruption of normal living conditions. The CONFIDENCE Project, funded under the H2020 CONCERT project, will focus on uncertainties in the area of emergency management and long-term rehabilitation, bringing together 32 partner organisations from across Europe. It concentrates on the early and transition phases of an emergency, and combines scientific and modelling studies with social research on the preferences and opinions of stakeholders (including the public) and decision-makers (including radiological protection experts), as well as communication of uncertainties and training workshops. During 2018 MET has worked on establishing data sets for assessment of uncertainties in the weather conditions. Applications have been started on a potential accident outside the Norwegian coast and on real data from the Fukushima accident in Japan. These applications will be continued in 2019.

We are progressing toward the main goals of the project, but the available resources during 2018 have been small and considerable work remains to achieve the main goals. Still, important tasks on preparing ensemble forecasts and the source term for analyzing the uncertainties in the dispersion calculations have been carried out during 2018. Model data and guidelines have been prepared for the other participants in Confidence. Model evaluation for the Fukushima case is also progressing. Se "Særskilt rapportering framdriftsrapport 2018" for more information.

In nuclear emergency management and long-term rehabilitation, dealing with uncertain information on the current situation, or predicted evolution of the situation, is an intrinsic problem for decision making. Uncertain information related to, for instance, incomplete information on the source term and the prevailing weather can result in dose assessments that differ dramatically from reality. Uncertainty is also an intrinsic part of model parameters. In the presence of uncertainty, ineffective decisions are often taken (e.g. too conservative or optimistic predictions, inadequately accounting of non-radiological risks), which may result in more overall harm than good due to secondary causalities as observed following the Chernobyl and Fukushima accidents. Therefore, the reduction of uncertainty, and how to deal with uncertain information, is essential to improve decision making for the protection of the affected population and to minimise disruption of normal living conditions. The CONFIDENCE Project, funded under the H2020 CONCERT project, will perform research focussed on uncertainties in the area of emergency management and long-term rehabilitation, bringing together 32 partner organisations from accross Europe. It concentrates on the early and transition phases of an emergency, and combines scientific and modelling studies with social research on the preferences and opinions of stakeholders (including the public) and decision-makers (including radiological protection experts), as well as communication of uncertainties and training workshops. The project is comprised of 7 Work Packages (WPs), but MET is only involved in 1 of these: WP1: Model Improvement through Uncertainty Analysis.