ENERGIFORSKNING-ENERGIFORSKNING

The second deliverable from the project is an international knowledge review on physical climate risk and the transition to a renewable energy system published in the scientific journal "Energy". Climate risk in renewable energy systems often turns out to be more complex than initially assumed. The scientific literature and many energy models have traditionally placed most emphasis on the effects of climate events, such as floods, storms and droughts. This gives an incomplete picture, because the interaction with societal changes is often overlooked - where the transition from a fossil to a renewable energy system itself is the central issue in this context. Key findings from the analysis include: • Compound climate events where several weather events occur simultaneously or one after the other are poorly covered by existing climate projections, and may prove to be particularly critical for climate risk in renewable energy systems. • Studies show that compound climate events occur regularly in Europe, and are likely to become more frequent in the future. • Energy system models used in policymaking often lack a systematic assessment of the effects of climate change, thereby underestimating climate risk in future systems. • Climate adaptation in the energy sector has received far less attention than climate policy for emission reductions, which may contribute to masking climate risk.

SusRenew addresses the ongoing transition towards a future renewable and net-zero GHG emission energy system. More precisely, the project will investigate how to assess and reduce climate risk that may arise because of this transition. The project relies on comprehensive participation from stakeholders in the renewable energy sector, covering representatives from energy providers, public as well as private end-users of energy, and energy policy actors. The project will co-produce knowledge about compound climate events that may affect the energy system, i.e. various hazard events that can occur at the same time over different regions. A new generic climate risk model for presenting risk scenarios will be produced, and the implementation of knowledge emerging from this model will test various energy models currently in use within energy system decision making. The methodology of the project rests on the IPCC conceptualization and definitions of climate risk, which describes climate risks as the interaction between vulnerability, exposure, and climate hazards. Furthermore, the project will apply the Impact Chain framework to analyze such risks, a framework that places great emphasis on user involvement. Finally, the project will develop adaptation strategies for the renewable energy system based on the result of the modeling of climate risks.