Modeling a 100% Renewable Electricity System

Climate and energy policy targets of the European Commission aim to make Europe the first climate-neutral continent by 2050. This will require large-scale deployment of variable renewable energy sources (VRES), such as wind and solar power, and a gradual phase-out of dispatchable fossil-fueled generation technologies. This pushes forward a need for entrance of new dispatchable resources to ensure a reliable and affordable power system. In the Nordic part of the system, the existing hydropower facilities will play a crucial role as a dispatchable renewable generation technology, balancing the variability in VRES. However, more flexibility is needed on both the supply and demand side, and several new technologies have the potential to further contribute to this need. The RES100 project takes the perspective of a 100% renewable European electricity system, emphasizing the Northern European part of the system where hydropower will play a crucial role also in the future. The project will provide new insight into the power market modeling needs and knowledge about possible patterns for dispatch and price formation in the Nordic region in a fully renewable European electricity system. New technologies on both the supply and demand side need to be adequately represented in future power market models, and there is a need to better understand the effect of increasing short-term flexibility and uncertainty on water values and operational patterns for the hydropower system. To accommodate these needs, this project will develop new methodologies and algorithms to be integrated in a new research prototype power market model, suitable to analyze a 100% renewable electricity system at the scale of Europe/Northern-Europe. Scenarios for a fully renewable electricity system will be established to facilitate model testing, verification, and analyses.

The planned trajectory for the future European electricity system involves large-scale deployment of variable renewable energy sources (VRES), such as wind and solar power, and a gradual phase-out of dispatchable fossil-fueled generation technologies. This pushes forward a need for entrance of new dispatchable resources to ensure a reliable, secure and affordable power system. In the Nordic part of the system, the existing hydropower facilities will play a crucial role as a dispatchable renewable generation technology, balancing the variability in VRES. However, more flexibility is needed on both the supply and demand side, and several new technologies have the potential to further contribute to this need. The main project objective is to provide new insight into the power market modeling needs and knowledge about possible patterns for dispatch and price formation in the Nordic region in a 100% renewable European electricity system. To achieve this goal, the project will formulate methodologies and algorithms needed in the future power market models to represent the system operation and price formation with adequate precision. Emerging technologies on the supply side and the new types and increased flexibility of demand will be represented at an appropriate temporal and spatial resolution. Moreover, the impact of increasing short-term flexibility and uncertainty on the longer-term operation of hydropower resources will be investigated. Scenarios for a 100% renewable electricity system will be generated by linking energy system expansion planning and power market models. These scenarios will be analyzed to gain insight in dispatch patterns, price formation, and revenue streams for different technologies.