NorClim - Climate of Norway and the Arctic in the 21st Century

NorClim responds to the need for identification and understanding of natural climate fluctuations in Norway and the Arctic (our region) by combining analyses of available instrumental data from land and the ocean for the past 50 to 100 years and unique hi gh-resolution time series for the last millennium based on marine and terrestrial climate proxies. This observation-based analysis will, for the first time, explore the interannual to multi-decadal fluctuations in the region for the last millennium. Based on this analysis, and with support from climate models, the potential and skill for climate predictions on time scales up to a decade will be examined. Further into the 21st century, dynamical and statistical downscaling methods will be used to provide r egional climate scenarios both for the atmosphere and the ocean - for the period 2030 to 2100. Assessments of the inherent uncertainties in these projections are an important aspect of the research. In-depth knowledge of key physical process is required to understand the basic operation of climate fluctuations and the sensitivity of the climate system to external forcings, and to improve the climate models. Therefore, NorClim addresses key climate processes both in the atmosphere, the cryosphere and the ocean. The goals for these process studies are to improve the understanding of processes that are of particular importance for the climate in Norway and Arctic, and to transfer the improved process understanding to climate models. Furthermore, NorClim wi ll harvest on the extensive experience gained in the development and use of climate models in Norway over the last 10 years. Specifically, NorClim will establish one common climate model system in Norway. NorClim will furthermore extend the unified model system to include biogeochemical cycles and thus prepare for an Earth System Model (ESM) that will address key biogeochemical feedback processes (like an interactive