Conditions for change in international climate policy: The role of China, the US and the EU

In terms of climate policy approaches as well as ambitions, the U.S and the EU represent opposite extremes. The U.S. has spearheaded the non-UN track while the EU has been the main proponent of the UN process. China is a key player within both tracks. Imp ortant changes may, however, be underway. The U.S. is on path to a more ambitious climate policy following the 2008 election. The climate policy of the EU is undergoing significant changes and China is also developing its climate policy. This project will analyse conditions for change in these actors? climate positions and the implications for future international climate agreements. It will provide analysis of present and upcoming changes of major importance to international climate policy, within a cohe rent analytical framework; a thorough study of China in relation to other key actors; and a systematic analysis of both the UN and the non-UN tracks of climate negotiation and cooperation. Main research questions are 1) What are the conditions for change in U.S. and EU climate policies and how do state?society relationships affect these actors? positions in international climate negotiations? 2) What is the foundation for China?s climate policy and international position and under what conditions is it likely to change? 3) What are the implications of change in key actor positions for international solutions and how does interaction between the negotiating tracks inside and outside the UN affect the potential effectiveness of international climate agree ments?