Security Implications of Climate Change

The project moves the research frontier forward on two fronts: 1) by applying an inclusive definition of armed conflict, also covering one-sided and non-state conflicts and organized urban violence; and 2) by paying attention to the role of two largely ov erlooked processes with significant challenges for security: natural disasters and rapid urbanization. Although the project will have a global scope, particular focus will be placed on Sub-Saharan Africa and urban areas in Asia. The project consists of t hree subprojects: A: Explores how temporal and spatial (inter-group) variations in resource access are associated with temporal and spatial variations in non-state (communal) and one-sided conflicts. Both case studies (Northern Mali and Northern Kenya) an d disaggregated, cross-national statistical methods will be employed. B: Explores how extreme weather events can affect the risk of armed conflict through their influence on economic and political stability. In addition, the indirect influence of disaste rs on ongoing conflicts will be evaluated. Cross-national quantitative analyses of vulnerable regions, using newly developed geo-referenced disaster data, will dominate this subproject, although a most similar case design will be employed to add substance to the analysis. C: Explores how rapid urbanization and environmental problems are associated with social unrest and violence in megacities in Asia and Africa. The developing world is urbanizing rapidly, and with projected climate changes, this process may even escalate in the near future. This subproject will use a newly collected dataset on urban violence in African and Asian megacities. The project team blends young and distinguished scholars with diverse backgrounds and complementary skills. The pr oject has a strong recruitment component, including two full-time PhD projects, one associated PhD scholar, and a part-time research assistant. Three visiting scolars (from Mali and Kenya) are planned.