Climate change impacts on freshwater resources

Projected 21st century climate change will have dramatic consequences for the global hydrological cycle, but there is significant uncertainty in the consequences of these for freshwater availability. An important (but often overlooked) cause of this uncer tainty is an inability to accurately resolve the terrestrial water budget, and in particular, evaporative flux of water from the land surface to the atmosphere. This pressing knowledge gap will be addressed through a systematic multi-model probabilistic a ssessment of the uncertainty associated with estimating evaporation, and the policy relevant implications of this for understanding current and future terrestrial freshwater resource availability. Analyses currently focus on a series of contrasting river basins (the Mekong, Okavango and Yangtze, as well as sub-catchments of the Nile, Mackenzie, Parana, Irrawaddy and Yellow Rivers). As such, this basin network constitutes a unique test-bed for analysis of adaptation policy in the context of uncertainty. I n addition to the intellectual benefits of working with the University of Oslo, the proposed collaboration would allow further expansion of this network, by combining and developing links with the existing Oslo-based NUFU and SoCoCA international research programmes. These programmes seek to enhance understanding of water resource availability under present and future climate, including hydrological extremes. The NUFU programme is focused on river-basins in Botswana, Malawi, and South Africa, whilst the S oCoCA project is concerned with sub-equatorial Africa more generally. Both programmes aim to optimise local knowledge and enhance international networks to improve understanding of current freshwater resource availability and the potential impacts of clim ate change. The similarity of these work programmes to the research of the applicant means that the proposed mobility grant would ideally complement the research of both the applicant and host institution.