Uncertainties: Verbal communication of internal and external sources of uncertainty

The project focuses on how chances, risks, and uncertainties are communicated, both in daily conversations and by experts who try to convey uncertain information to the general public. From a mathematical point of view, probabilities can be described by n umbers ranging from 0 (impossible) to 1.0 (full certainty). But degrees of certainty are also reflected in verbal language, through terms like 'a chance', 'a possibility', 'very likely', 'doubtful', and 'almost certain'. Some of these phrases indicate tha t the source of uncertainty is external, or impersonal ('there is a chance'), whereas others suggest that it is internal, or personal, due to a lack of knowledge ('I am uncertain'). The present project intends to explore under which circumstances are the se two types of phrases selected, how are they assessed, and how are they judged by listeners. We propose to investigate how internal and external phrases affect people?s predictions and decisions under uncertainty in various contexts. The project has rel evance for several professional contexts dealing with uncertainty and risk, including project management, law, medicine, finances, and politics. It is based on previous research conducted independently at the universities of Toulouse and Oslo, and, more r ecently, on a joint study by Juanchich, Teigen and Villejoubert (submitted). It draws on expertise in cognitive science, social psychology, and linguistics, and involves doctoral students as well as senior researchers at the two universities.