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IS-MOBIL-Mobilitetsprogr.f.utl.Ph.D-stu

Modeling of malaria risk using hydrological, topographic, and climatic variables in Bangladesh

Awarded: NOK 0.14 mill.

Project Manager:

Project Number:

211232

Project Period:

2011 - 2012

Subject Fields:

Malaria is heterogeneously distributed in 13 endemic districts of Bangladesh, potentially as a result of variations in ecological settings, socio-economic status, land cover, and agricultural practices. Malaria control relies in Bangladesh only on treatme nt and supply of bed nets. It is highly endemic in Chittagong Hill Tracts (CHT) which is covered with forests and hills. Major transmission takes place during the rainy season. Models using hydrological, climatic and topographic variables for the predicti on of malaria transmission have never been developed for Bangladesh. Due to the unique ecological settings in CHT, hydrological models developed in other parts of the world, particularly in Africa, are neither feasible nor cost effective for Bangladesh. I n general, any model should consider environmental and entomological risk factors, bed net coverage and usage, health facilities, malaria control efforts, and other socio economic information. Currently, no such model exists anywhere, and such a model wou ld risk becoming overly complicated. A model based on local ecology and risk factors is essential for malaria control in the CHT, Bangladesh. This project aims to develop a risk model using hydrological, topographic, climatic, and entomological parameters . The model will be capable to simulate overland flow, pooling and evaporation from open water bodies. Runoff will be estimated using runoff ratios or a curve number approach. Inundations will be estimated from runoff patterns and local topography. The mo del will help explain malaria risk on a small-scale. The major outcomes will be an easy to use hydrological-malaria model and increased knowledge of malaria risk factors in the CHT in Bangladesh. Knowledge arising from this project will be invaluable for research capacity development on malaria control in Bangladesh. The proposed model will be instrumental for Bangladesh to assist in forecasting, improve malaria control decisions, and reduce disease outcome.

Funding scheme:

IS-MOBIL-Mobilitetsprogr.f.utl.Ph.D-stu