INDNOR: Hydrologic sensitivity to Cryosphere-Aerosol interaction in Mountain Processes (HyCAMP)

A central outcome of HyCAMP is the advancement of our knowledge regarding aerosol- cryosphere interaction, and influences on hydrologic cycling. Specifically, the project has increased the capacity of hydrologic impact assessment. The ultimate goal of the research is to provide an improved capacity to model hydrological response in glacial and mountain environments in order to improve predictive capacity and better assess hydrologic security. This initiative combined existing expertise between the Indian Institutes of Technology (IIT) Kanpur and Kharagpur and the University of Oslo, Norway. Accelerated melting of the cryosphere, both polar and alpine components, has prompted recent investigations into the cause. Increasingly, Black Carbon (BC) and other aerosols, so called 'Short Lived Climate Forcers' (SLCFs), have been identified as drivers in the complex dynamics leading to the ice loss. Atmospheric warming directly impacts regional monsoon variability, enhances glacial melt, and alters hydrologic cycling. In the context of the Hindu Kush, Karakoram and Himalayan (HKKH) mountain system, a major initiative of HyCAMP was to determine whether the deposition of anthropogenic aerosols exerts influence on the hydrologic system. This lack of understanding has the potential that malformed climate and air pollution mitigation policies could enhance rather than abate climate change. Together with the Indian project partners, HyCAMP has significantly addressed this knowledge gap through: i) assessing different snowmelt model characterization of the snowpack processes, ii) developing a new algorithm to directly benefit from aerosol forecasts in hydrologic simulation, iii) creating a new methodology to evaluate current remote sensing products of snow radiative forcing, and iv) conducting numerous climate studies to assess the regional climate impacts of aerosols over snow dominated regions of the Indian Himalaya. These results, in sum, will pave the way for a new approach to assess the regional impact of enhanced aerosol pollution and future hydrologic impacts.

This proposal outlines a series of activities designed to raise the current level of understanding regarding the hydrologic sensitivity in the Hindu Kush, Karakoram and Himalayan (HKKH) mountain system to interaction between aerosols and the cryosphere an d to extend that knowledge to implement improved hydrologic forecasting for Norway. Specifically, we intend to identify key emission sources having impact on the Himalayan cryosphere and to conduct sensitivity studies to evaluate the impact of the differe nt light absorbing aerosols on cryosphere, climatologically. Water resources are central to Norway's renewable energy market. Reliable hydrological predition is not only critical to hydrologic and energy security in Norway but also may provide signfican t financial benefits for the Norwegian energy market. Aerosol sources for Norway are predominantly remote, so the emphasis on the Norwegian side of the study will be to examine the sensitivity of the hydrologic systems to aerosol interaction. Through mo del studies we will identify deficiencies for accounting for light abosrbing aerosol in hydrologic forecasting and develop strategies to address the gaps. Specific activities include: * Integrate state-of-the-art GIS-based inventory of black carbon and other SLCFs for India and Norway into hydrologic modeling. * Evaluate Aerosol Distribution over the HKKH region resulting from Asian emissions using high resolution emissions inventories and meteorology from the WRF model as input to WRF-Chem and FLEXPAR T. * Conduct numerical experiments with the LMD-INCA Global Climate Model to identify regional hydrologic sensitivities to aerosol emissions, and conduct experiments to test mitigation policies. * Integrate aerosol forecasting into hydrologic modeling u sing the Norwegian HBV model.