FACCE MACSUR: Modelling European Agriculture with Climate Change for Food Security

MACSUR - Modelling European Agriculture with Climate change for food Security- study how climate change influence food production and food security in Europa. 73 institutions in 17 countries participate in the European network MACSUR, a pilot project of FACCE- JPI. Bioforsk, NMBU and NILF participate in networks in MACSUR for modelling of crop production (CropM), livestock production (LiveM) and trade (TradeM). www.macsur.eu gives overview of MACSUR activities like workshops, training courses, newsletters, publications, stakeholder involvement etc. Modelling in CropM. Available datasets and models for forage and cereal productions for Nordic climatic conditions are compared. Evaluation of soil conditions for sowing and harvesting under changing climate is included in the model development. The Norwegian gras model LINGRA is included/a basis in Nordic cooperation to identify properties which determine good over wintering and stable yields. Cooperation with partners in Germany is established for grasmodelling and upscaling to larger regions. An International workshop was held in Oslo (2014); Modelling climate change impacts on crop production for food security. http://www.macsur.eu/index.php/international- symposium-and-workshop Modelling in LiveM. A longer growing season can give extended grazing period and possibilities for higher yields and good quality and new crops (fodder maize). More extreme weather can gi more difficult harvesting conditions, reduced yield and forage quality. LiveM study how climate change influence on production of meat and milk and emission of greenhouse gases. The farmscale model HolosNor is further developed for Norwegian conditions with crop productions and GHG emissions. Effect of animal health, replacement rate (number of lactations) and how this influence GHG emissions is included. Modelling in TradeM. Climate change influence on global food security by changing conditions for crop growth in climatic zones, giving higher variations and more unpredictable productions. Little is known about farmers adaptations of production to changing climate, highly important for food security and implemented measures. TradeM cooperate with CropM and LiveM for such analysis. Consumers consumption and preferences for food products and the effect on greenhouse gas emissions is studied. An internasjonal workshop was held in Hurdal (2014): Economics of integrated assessment approaches for agriculture and the food sector« http://ojs.macsur.eu/index.php/Reports/issue/view/5

FACCE MACSUR focuses on modeling European agriculture with climate change for food security. The work is organized in three themes network on crop, livestock and trade modeling. The partnership consists of 73 partners from 16 countries all over Europe. T he overarching challenge is to develop a pan-European capability in the development, use and interpretation of models to perform risk assessments of the impacts of climate change on European agriculture. Bioforsk, UMB-IHA and NILF have formed a national, Norwegian consortium to address the tasks in FACCE MACSUR. The consortium consists of experts covering the three main disciplines/research themes of the Knowledge-Hub: Crops, Grasslands and Livestock, and Economics and Trade. The consortiums goal is to b uild a research capacity to increase the understanding of climate change impact on the agriculture and food security. We aim at identifying risks under future climate and production scenarios from a crop, animal, and socio-economic perspective. This will result in increased knowledge about the regional distribution of food production and trade patterns. Interdisciplinary linking of different research themes within the consortium will be a key aspect to reach this goal. International networking within the JPI-FACCE will serve an important role to set the Norwegian risks assessments scenarios in an international context. Specific activities will be organized within the disciplinary themes where collaboration is already established with expected JPI-FACCE pa rticipants from other countries. The consortium will also contribute to national information spreading about activities and results and aim at being a link to other national research institutions. The consortium will contribute to organize three internat ional workshops for the Knowledge Hub to fulfill Norway's special committments. Contacts:Mats Høglind (Crops and FACCE-MACSUR), Odd Magne Harstad (Livestock) Øivind Hoveid (Trade) Lillian Øygarden(Consortium).