Jordsystem-modellering av klimaforandringer i den antroposene tidsalder; Earth system modelling of climate Variations in the Anthropocene

The Anthropocene denotes the period in Earth?s history where humankind had substantial impact on environment and climate. How can alterations up to now be determined and how can we prepare us best for changes to come? Earth system models (ESMs) are the most important tool for finding respective answers. An ESM is a mathematical model which uses the most comprehensive supercomputers available and it is based on known physical laws that govern the climate system and biological as well as chemical processes in ecosystems. In the EVA project we upgrade the Norwegian Earth system model NorESM and maintain it as a national resource for global climate studies and potential future developments. The model will be further developed, extended, quality controlled, and applied for important problems in the field of climate research. Through NorESM a Norwegian participation in key internationally coordinated research projects is enabled. Simulations with NorESM will contribute to an increased understanding of the drivers behind climate fluctuations and climate changes. Relevant feedback processes will be quantified. Interactions between physical and biogeochemical processes will be included. Planned pre-industrial and Anthropocene simulations (historical and into the future) are the basis for discriminating natural climate variability from possible human-produced climate change signals. New process descriptions in NorESM will be derived from detailed process models and available advanced data sets from observations. The goal is to arrive at new climate simulations with more realistic projections of still uncertain processes. Several of such processes act in the Arctic region and include: ice clouds, Arctic haze, sea ice, and permafrost melting. Activities in EVA are linked to comprehensive international research networks. The results will be available to all stakeholders (scientists, decision makers, and the general public). For supporting climate adaptation and mitigation strategies, data will be made accessible through the National Climate Service Centre. The present status is: We assemble a new improved model version for a suite of new reference-simulations which wil qualify NorESM for participation in international projects which compare results from several model systems developed in a number of different countries. NorESM is currently also employed for establishing what advantages a limitation of global warming to 1.5 degrees (with respect to the pre-industrial level) in support of the process around the ?Paris Agreement? (UNFCCC). At the end of the EVA project, the new NorESM2 model version for projections of future climate developments is being tuned for a large set of new runs to start in winter 2018/2019. The NorESM model development will go on the newly established infrastructure project INES funded by the RCN.

1. The development and application of NorESM enabled to attract talented students (maseter and PhD) for new thesis work. 2. NorESM results are used for dynamical downscaling in connection with teh Norwegian Climate Service Centre and the Institute for Marine Research for reginal climate studies. 3. The existence and further development of NorESM led to participation in new European funded projects (especially H2020 project CRESCENDO) and proposals. 4. NorESM is important for Norway in not leaving important world views on climate to others, but to maintain an in-house capability. 5. NorESM as a joint ventur ebetween the Oslo and Bergen climate modelling communities has led to an excellent team building effort, which is reflected in tehsuccesful infrastucture project INES funded by the RCN.

REVISED POPULAR SUMMARIES FOR NFR'S WEB-SITE IN NORWEGIAN AND ENGLISH HAVE BEEN UPLOADED AS SEPARATE ATTACHMENTS. EVA addresses all 5 key foci of the call. The Norwegian Earth system model (NorESM) as the main national facility for global climate studies will be further developed, extended, quality checked, and applied to key research questions in the field of climate science. In particular, NorESM2 will be established also for participation in key international assessments. NorESM experiments on drivers for climate variability will be carried out, and related feedbacks will be quantified adressing key uncertainties. Complex spatio-temporal structures of the climate system will be analysed including interactions between physical processes and biogeochemic al cycles. The planned pre-industrial, historical, and future NorESM simulations together with observational evidence provide the foundation for discriminating natural and human-induced climate variability. More complete process representations in NorESM evaluated against observations and re-analyses will enable more realistic quantifications of uncertainties in state-of-the-art climate simulations. Relevant Arctic climate processes are addressed: cold clouds, Arctic haze, sea-ice and permafrost thawing. EVA is firmly embedded in the international scientific research field. NorESM is provided as a major national infrastructure for large-scale predictive climate studies. Results and data sets are open to all end-users (scientifists, policy makers, the publ ic). For adaptation and mitigation purposes, data will be available through the National Climate Service Center (met.no, UniResearch and NVE).