Coping with Climate: Assessing Policies for Climate Change Adoption and Transport Sector Mitigation in Indian Cities

The CLIMATRANS project is a multi-theoretical and multidisciplinary project within the fields of social sciences (economics, political science, sociology and planning), and natural sciences (meteorology and civil engineering). The design of the project has been to respond to the objectives of the project; to assess climate change and environmental impacts related to urban passenger transport in the selected cities of Delhi, Mumbai and Bangalore, and to develop mitigation and adaption strategies for the case cities. It is a collaboration between Institute of Transport Economics (TØI), Norway Meteorological Institute (MET), School of Planning and Architecture in New Delhi (SPA), Indian Institute of Science in Bangalore (IISB), Indian Institute of Technology in Bombay (IITM) and The Energy Research Institute (TERI) in Delhi. The project focuses on five broad areas of analysis: 1) Current situation, 2) Outlining of trends up to 2050, 3) Scenario analysis, 4) Scenario evaluation, and 5) Implementation (identification of institutional and other barriers). The analysis of current state and existing policy design and outlining of trends up to target year of 2050 will provide insight into a business as usual scenario (BAU), while the scenario analysis provides alternative strategies to reach a different future by means of packages of adaptation and mitigation policy measures. Different models and methods have been employed for this exercise. Example of these efforts are: 1. Development and calibration of transport model systems for the case cities to simulate travel behaviour (modal share, travel distance, trip time, etc.) up to the target year. Coupled with emission factors, an estimate of emissions of CO2 and local pollutants (NOx, PM, etc.) is obtained. 2. Empirical-statistical downscaling (ESD) method is used for estimation of case city climatic variables (extreme precipitation and heatwave). Case city flooding model use climatic variables among other variables. Identification of vulnerable urban areas and transport infrastructure is achieved by means of superimposing the flooding map over transport network (using GIS). 3. Emissions are converted to ambient concentration using EMEP CTM model. WHO model is used to calculate mortality due to PM2.5 ambient concentration. 4. The design of policy packages is based on a DELPHI study, consultations with stakeholders and case city specificity. Each case city has evaluated 3-4 policy packages, in addition to electrification of passenger transport under assumption of different energy mixes. 5. The evaluation of policy scenarios is based on emissions of CO2, local pollutants and mortality due to PM2.5. 6. The identification of institutional and other barriers was based on document studies, interviews as well as the DELPHI study. The evaluation of BAU scenarios shows that the urban passenger transport sector meets India's mitigation target. India could set a more ambitious target. In addition to reductions in GHG emissions, there will be great improvements in urban air quality and health. The benefits of electrification of the transport system depends on the energy mix. While GHG emissions depend on energy mix, electrification would bring significant reductions in local pollutants. The methodology developed in this study, particularly integration of mitigation and adaptation strategies, is novel and could be applied to other urban areas. Among other contributions of the project is the methodology developed for integration of the flooding model with transport model system for identification of the vulnerable urban areas and transport infrastructure to flooding. CLIMATRANS reports can be retrieved from www.toi.no/press-release/category1515.html.

The project CLIMATRANS assesses climate change impact in urban areas in India with focus on the transport sector, and aims to develop mitigation and adaption strategies. India is an important country to study in terms of both its present and projected tra nsport sectors contributions to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and the projected future climate change impacts. In fact climate change might have already caused recent adverse effects on different settlements in India. GHG emissions have global dimension with adverse effect on other parts of the world. An optimal path of climate strategies must take into account uncertainties about the benefits and costs of policies, as well as irreversibility and a multiplicity of actors. This does in turn generate a d emand for flexibility and adaptability in planning. A case study approach is adopted in CLIMATRANS. Three largest cities in India; Mumbai, Delhi and Bangalore will be focused on. The cases will be studied within a multi disciplinary framework, comprising four broad areas of analysis: 1) Current situation, 2) Outlining of trends up to 2050, 3) Scenario analysis, and 4) Multi criteria evaluation. The analyses of current policy design and outlining of trends will provide insight in a "base scenario", while the scenario analysis will provide alternative future scenarios and different strategies to reach a sustainable future by means of adoptive and mitigation policy measures. The multi criteria approach will provide a means to evaluate the strategies sugges ted by the scenario analysis. On the basis of the overall aim of the project, seven work packages have been identified. CLIMATRANS is interdisciplinary within the realm of social and natural sciences. It is also a collaboration between Norwegian and fou r Indian research environments, thereby responding to the INDNOR program.