Climate Change and Sea-level Rise in the Anthropocene: Challenges for International Law in the 21st Century

With climate change and the resultant sea-level rise, as predicted already for this century, fundamental challenges for international law will be on the horizon. Core aspects of international law rely on the stability of geographical conditions. Coastal geography, due to its perceived stability, is taken as a key objective circumstance in determining the rights of states to maritime zones, and in resolving maritime boundaries. A defined territory is a constituent element of statehood under international law. In not too distant future, important questions may arise about the sustainability of those aspects of international law, while other aspects, such as the population of the state and, accordingly, human rights, may gain in prominence and acquire new dimensions, all likely to require profound re-examination of currently-accepted paradigms of international law. International law today is, to a large extent, a system of rules resting on foundations that evolved under the understanding of ever-valid circumstances of the current geological epoch, the Holocene (the past 11,700 years, characterized by relative environmental stability: a factor significant for the development of human civilization). However, the Earth may be undergoing a shift from the Holocene to a new epoch - the Anthropocene, characterized by uncertainty. In 2009, the International Commission on Stratigraphy established the Anthropocene Working Group, to examine the stratigraphic basis for the Anthropocene as a new geological time unit. This development could critically raise awareness and highlight the magnitude of the human impact on the Earth System, thereby prompting fundamental new reflections on today's social structures. In this broader context, the perspective of sea-level rise may be among key factors prompting a thorough re-examination of some core aspects of international law. The aim of the proposed project was to provide the first comprehensive study to that effect. The study of the Anthropocene concept and its relevance for international law in general, and to the consequences of sea-level rise in particular, has laid ground for research in this project. Three key international cooperation processes have been followed and interacted with: the Anthropocene Working Group (AWG), the Committee on International Law and Sea Level Rise (of the International Law Association: ILA) and the Nansen Initiative, an intergovernmental process facilitated by Norway and Switzerland. The AWG presented in autumn 2016 a summary of its preliminary findings and recommendations. The AWG holds that the Anthropocene is geologically real, and recommends formalization of it as an epoch starting in the mid-20th century. The study so far has mainly addressed the overall nature of the Anthropocene as a potential new geological epoch. Work in the AWG is now proceeding towards a formal proposal, based upon selection of human-produced geological signals. The Anthropocene differs from previous periods in Earth history since it reflects contemporary and human-induced geological change, which in turn also leads to the use of this concept over a wide range of social and political discourse. The study in the project analysed, and contributed to, the work undertaken by the ILA Committee on International Law and Sea Level Rise in its first phase (2014-18) during which the law of the sea aspects as well as forced migration and human rights were the main foci. In this connection, proposals for the options regarding subsequent interpretation and progressive development of international law concerning the status of maritime limits and the maritime boundaries were elaborated and resolutions were adopted by the ILA in 2018. The study also identified some considerations for the future work of the Committee (2019-22), especially regarding the issues of statehood and international law personality of low-lying island states. Moreover, a study of possibly existential threats to the inhabitants of low-lying islands and coastal areas, and the resulting challenges for the international legal system to respond in an orderly and humane way to these novel situations, has been undertaken. Key developments over the past several years were studied, involving both the 2015 Paris COP outcome on climate change and the UN-based documents concerning large movements of refugees and migrants. Moreover, a series of court cases in New Zealand began to develop the jurisprudence on the scope of refugee law and human rights law prompted by climate change, including sea-level rise. The study undertaken within this project has enabled the first account and analysis of these developments, addressing the role of international law in such processes, reviewing the capacity of existing legal frameworks to facilitate the needs of people displaced in the context of disasters and climate change, and suggesting ways in which international law might be progressively developed.

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With climate change and the resultant sea-level rise, as projected already for this century, fundamental challenges for international law may be on the horizon. Core aspects of international law rely on the stability of geographical conditions. Coastal ge ography, due to its perceived stability, is taken as a key objective circumstance in determining the rights of states to maritime zones, as well as in resolving maritime delimitation disputes. A defined territory is a constituent element of statehood unde r international law. In not too distant future, important questions may arise about the sustainability of those aspects of international law, while other aspects, such as the population of the state - and, accordingly, human rights - may gain in prominenc e and acquire new dimensions, all likely to require profound re-examination of currently-accepted paradigms of international law. International law today is, to a large extent, a system of rules resting on foundations that evolved under the understanding of ever-valid circumstances of the current geological epoch, the Holocene (the past 11,700 years, characterised by relative environmental stability: a factor significant for the development of human civilisation). However, the Earth may be undergoing a s hift from the Holocene to a new epoch - the Anthropocene, characterised by uncertainty. In 2009, the International Commission on Stratigraphy established the Anthropocene Working Group, to examine the stratigraphic basis for the Anthropocene as a new geol ogical time unit. This development could critically raise awareness and highlight the magnitude of the human impact on the Earth System, thereby prompting fundamental new reflections on today's social structures. In this broader context, the perspective of sea-level rise may be among key factors prompting a thorough re-examination of some core aspects of international law. The aim of the proposed project is to provide the first comprehensive study to that effect.