Comparative climate impact assessment of the forest based bio-economies of Norway, Sweden and Finland

Many future primary energy supply and land use scenarios of the IPCC envisage a future that is more heavily reliant on terrestrial ecosystems to supply food, fiber, and energy than at present. Bioenergy is by far the most important renewable energy option in studies designed to meet stringent climate change mitigation targets, reaching at least 150 EJ/yr by the end of the century. Due to its abundant forest resource base, Fenno-Scandinavia stands in a unique position to contribute to a sustainable growth in the supply of forest-based biomass. Relative to Norway, forest management in Sweden and Finland is generally much more intensive. There is therefore a large potential in increasing the sustainable use of bioresources in Norway for replacing GHG-intensive fossil-based products and fuels. By understanding the regional management differences and similarities, as well as the climate forcings connected to forest management and forest products, we can identify resource management strategies leading to more effective climate change mitigation going forward. Intensification of human intervention affects the climate regulation services provided by forest ecosystems. In boreal regions, albedo is the dominant biophysical mechanism by which terrestrial ecosystems influence climate, and forest management interventions induce changes in albedo that can persist for several decades. Forests also release biogenic volatile organic compounds to the atmosphere like isoprene, monoterpenes, carbon monoxide, and methanol. These emissions are linked to forest structure and physiology and they directly and indirectly impact the climate. In addition to forest-climate interactions, it is equally important to consider the types and magnitudes of climate impacts connected to the procurement, transformation, and utilization of the forest biomass. The utilization pathways of boreal forest resources vary substantially and are dependent on the structure of regional wood products industries that are shaped by the national and international markets. Research activities in Bio4Clim mapped historical forest management and bioresource extraction and utilization patterns in Scandinavian countries. The project covered the gap of the research need for robust forest management datasets and forest-albedo models specific for Norwegian forests, and produced novel models for estimating changes in surface albedo and other biophysical properties from forest management and climate change. These new models are specific for the Nordic boreal forest and are available in scientific publications to users. Thanks to their relatively simple formulations, they will be instrumental in future research activities in the field and can be used by non-experts to infer the changes in surface albedo from forest management or climate change. Climate metrics related to forest products and bioenergy were provided to advance the analysis in life-cycle assessment. These approaches allow the inclusion of different climate forcings (from carbon fluxes and surface albedo) in a consistent framework with the same physical units. These methods were applied to case studies of forest management and forest-based bioenergy systems in Norway and Sweden. The forestry sectors in Norway, Sweden, and Finland were compared and assessed with respect to the historical trends, with an analysis of differences, similarities, and inter-connections, as well as their potential as negative emissions. Life-cycle inventory models were also developed for the individual forest product classes. This will form the basis for future environmental system analysis of harvested wood products. Future potential developments of the sector were also investigated using the IPCC framework of the Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs). Overall, this project achieved about 20 scientific publications in international journals, around 10+ presentation at international conferences, and several contributions to different public media. Research activities along the lifetime of the project also interacted with authoritative networks and institutions such as the reports of the 6th Assessment Cycle of the IPCC, the IEA Bioenergy Task network, and the UNEP/SETAC Life-Cycle Initiative Flagship projects.

Overall, this project achieved about 20 scientific publications in international journals, around 10+ presentations at international conferences, and several contributions to different public media. Research activities were connected with prestigious international institutions such as the IPCC and the IEA Bioenergy Tasks. This project helped to position participants at the forefront of the international research activities in the field. Dissemination activities have been extensive at a national and international level. In addition to international conferences, popular media were also heavily targeted. Popular science briefs were released to explain the most significant research findings with plain text when key publications came out. The recent launching of the IPCC Report offered a great opportunity for large-scale dissemination of scientific insights related to the scope of this project to society and decision makers (e.g., live streaming of scientific presentation by NRK).

Due to the tightly coupled relationship between terrestrial climate regulation services and societal demands for biomass resources for energy and products, climate change mitigation policies that neglect important land use-climate drivers connected to biomass-based goods and services risk being suboptimal-or worse-counterproductive. In Norway, current policies in support of climate change mitigation through reduced fossil fuel consumption and land management are currently rather disconnected, in spite of the large potential for co-benefits and need for trade-offs. To identify the beneficial and detrimental aspects of alternative land use options and forest management practices, we will develop the empirical foundation for analyzing the climate effects linked to historical forest sector activities throughout boreal Fenno-Scandinavia while evaluating climate impacts connected to utilization of forest resources. The main goal is to assess the climate impacts from the historical and current forest dynamics in Fenno-Scandinavia and attribute them to the resource utilization patterns for bio-materials and bioenergy. Complex earth system science and climate findings related to various forest management practices and subsequent utilization pathways will be synthesized into guidelines that will be of practical use for policy makers, resource managers, and societal stakeholders for navigating the many complex challenges enveloping societal transformations involving the land use-energy-climate nexus. We created a multidisciplinary consortium with extensive expertise in the field of forest science (Skog og Landskap), climate science (CICERO), and Industrial Ecology (NTNU) to achieve this task.