BIOSMART: Managing the transition to a "smart" bioeconomy

A bioeconomic transition involves the development of an entirely new and integrated biologically based economic sector. This is a key goal for Norway. The objective of the Biosmart project, which ran for 5 years between 2015 and 2019, was to conduct 'visionary' work to explore how to build an integrated bioeconomy - to help prepare industry, government and society for the coming transition to a bioeconomy. One of the earliest major tasks of the project was to conduct a survey of the bioeconomy sectors in Norway. This survey, with 1315 respondents, collected information in early 2016 on business activities, connection with bio-resources and energy, and identified the respondent's evaluation of quality and quantity. 80% of respondents came from within the primary production sectors (agriculture, forestry, fisheries/aquaculture), with most of those coming from agriculture. The survey was used to create four future 'images' of the bioeconomy - namely a knowledge driven bioeconomy, a demand driven bioeconomy, a regulation driven bioeconomy, and a public attitude driven bioeconomy. Later in 2016 seven focus groups were conducted with members of the public from across Norway, with the groups selected to represent a range of ages and occupations. Few people had an understanding of what the bioeconomy was before the meetings. When this was explained, the public appeared to be enthusiastic about the development of a bioeconomy - even, within certain limits, including the most radical technological solutions. The key perceived advantage of the bioeconomy was that it would be able to address environmental and resource issues through more 'natural' means than any alternative. In the course of the project a team combining GIS and logistical modelling skills developed an integrated model for identifying the best location for bioeconomic development, on the basis of resources and transport links. This innovative development enables us to explore ideal locations for bioeconomic clusters under different conditions - such as optimal value added or considering changes in transport costs. The team investigating value creation developed a system for analysing functional bioeconomy sectors based on the industrial classification system used by Statistics Norway and Eurostat in 2016. Analysis of the development of value added in the Norwegian bioeconomy showed considerable fluctuation across all sectors, but substantial growth in aquaculture and fisheries. Work in 2018 focused on the role of innovation clusters in bioeconomic value creation and found that interactions of the sectors are now extending from within cluster to between cluster. PhD Student Lillian Hansen completed her PhD in early 2020. The PhD explored bioeconomic transition in Norway. Lillian will begin a new job with SINTEF in February 2020 continuing her work and applying knowledge gained from Biosmart. Her five publications on sustainability transitions represent a significant body of work on transition in the Norwegian bioeconomy. The study of rights in the bioeconomy looked at marine bioprospecting - a key part of the government's focus on the blue sector for bioeconomic development. The resulting paper, accepted for publication in 2020, addresses the processes of establishing new legal arrangements in the marine bioeconomy, and spatio-legal aspects of establishing a rights system for marine bioprospecting in Norway. In 2017/2018 the project team conducted two foresight workshops to derive a common vision for the development of Norway's bioeconomy. These one day workshops bought researchers together with 40+ key stakeholders from industry, government and NGOs. Discussions were based around the four preliminary scenarios from the initial survey. Developing the correct regulatory regime and the acceptance of consumers were seen as key to successful bioeconomy transition, but the transition, it was believed, will require sustained political will. In 2018 the Biosmart project obtained a contract with Cappelen Damm to publish a book 'After oil: our bioeconomic future' (in Norwegian). The book consists of three sections: An outline of the bioeconomy and forces behind the bioeconomy; a section looking at the relationships between consumers, sustainability, legal rights, resources, and value added; and a section looking at the bioeconomic transition, foresighting of Norway?s future bioeconomy, policies for change, and the possible 'post-animal bioeconomy'. The book will be published in February 2020. A follow-up Research Council funded project PROTEIN2.0 (2019-2022), based on Biosmart findings, will explore the potential impact of and opportunities for a biosynthetic protein transition in Norway. With the sale of biosynthetic-milk based ice cream by Perfect Day in the US in July 2019, the 'post-animal' bioeconomy is already upon us.

The project provides analytical tools such as the bioeconomic cluster location model, a statistical means of quantifying uncertainty in citizen science data, and an economic model of how bioenergy policy design affects the delivery of ecosystem services. It also provides new data sources such as a mapping of the bioeconomic resources available to Norway. For scientists it provides considerable new knowledge on the bioeconomy with around 30 peer-reviewed publications. Finally, for the public it both informs them and presents their views on the bioeconomy to policy-makers. The Biosmart book and project will raise the overall level of awareness in the population, industry and policy-makers. The effect of this is likely to be diffuse, but could be substantial. The project has also contributed to the development of a network between the main participating organisations and has contributed strongly to the build-up of bioeconomy research capacity in Norway.

The Research Council of Norway's (RCN) Work Program 2012-2021 on sustainable innovation in food and bio-based industries presents itself as a "visionary framework" for the development of a "bioeconomy." As the combination of multiple transitioning socio-technical systems (e.g. forestry, farming, fisheries, biosciences, industry) the move to a bioeconomy does indeed require "visionary" work. In particular, developing a "smart" bioeconomy (integrated, human-capital and technology based, and wisely implemented) requires development across and between the biosectors. In addition, as a societal transition, it needs to be acceptable by citizens and consumers alike, while the reconfiguration of the resource base to biomass and move to a knowledge economy raises issues for intellectual property (IP) and other property rights. BIOSMART promotes a "smart" transition by conducting a major foresighting exercise on stakeholders in the bioeconomy. An initial extensive foresighting process will cover 1500 businesses from the farming, forestry, fisheries, bio-science and industry sectors to develop SEPARATE industry scenarios of bioeconomic development. A number of key scientific studies will be conducted around the foresighting exercise. These look at bio-tech transitional processes in Norway, issues of IP and land use rights, how the resources envisaged for the bioeconomy might be sourced, optimal location of bioeconomic development, whether the new bioeconomy will be environmentally sustainable and energy efficient, and what level of value creation we might expect. These will provide input into a second round of foresight aimed at developing 4 INTEGRATED scenarios of bioeconomic development across all sectors and stakeholders and suggesting ways of achieving the transitions. While there are numerous scientific, advisory and policy outputs from BIOSMART, the main outcome will be to prepare industry, government and society for the coming transition to a "smart" bioeconomy.