Resilience and adaptive capacity of arctic marine systems under a changing climate (RACArctic)

Increasing CO2 in the atmosphere has resulted in rapid warming of the Arctic, melting of sea ice and increased CO2 in the ocean causing the water to become more acidic (called ocean acidification). Within the RACArctic Project, a team of natural scientists, economists and social scientists from Japan, the United States and Norway compared future climate change impacts on the ecosystem in the Atlantic and Pacific gateways to the Arctic. Representatives from the fishing industry, regional fisheries management bodies, governments and coastal communities from the 3 nations also participated. Under future climate change ocean temperatures will increase, sea ice coverage will decrease or disappear, surface salinity is expected to decrease and there will be stronger vertical density stratification, resulting in reduced wind mixing. Light levels will increase due to early ice retreat and less sea ice. Primary production will occur earlier due to earlier retreat of sea ice and last longer but sea-ice associated algal production will diminish. The species composition of zooplankton communities in the northern Barents will shift from large-bodied and typically lipid-rich zooplankton to smaller and less nutritious zooplankton species meaning less energy available for fish. Atlantic cod in the Barents Sea are expected to move farther north and recruitment and growth will remain relatively high. The cod fishery will continue to do well although the cod fleet may have to travel farther to obtain their catch. Climate change in the Arctic will have a profound effect on human inhabitants in the region through coastal erosion and disruption or loss of traditional transportation routes, both on the water and land. However, new opportunities will be created for others including increased commercial ship traffic through the Arctic gateways, an expanding tourist traffic, and the potential for opening of new oil, gas and mineral fields for extraction. RACArctic results indicate that new science will be essential in order to rapidly respond to environmental changes. Ecosystem-based management across species will play a bigger role to meet the climate change challenges as the systems change and evolve. Flexible management that minimizes unnecessary restrictions are needed to enable effective adaptation. If changes to fish stocks and the ecosystems of the Barents Sea remain close to the range of past variability, existing management systems are likely to be resilient to such changes without need for far-reaching adaptation. If, however, environmental changes disrupt the assumptions underlying the management systems, it will be difficult to achieve management goals without major shifts in the management structure or the composition of the fishing fleets. Results are being summarized in 4 comparative scientific papers: (1) An introduction to the RACArctic Project; (2) the physical and chemical changes in the atmosphere and ocean of the Arctic gateways; (3) the impacts of these changes on the ecology, including fish populations; and (4) their management implications. These papers are near completion and will be submitted shortly to an international scientific journal. In addition, a summary document for Stakeholders is also in preparation.

-3 scientific meetings held, one each in Japan, Alaska and Norway. -3 Stakeholder meetings held in each country. A separate meeting was held in Oslo with 2 people from the Norwegian Ministry of Industry, Trade and Fisheries. -Up-to-date syntheses were completed of (i) expected physical and chemical changes under climate change focussing on the Atlantic and Pacific gateways to the Arctic; (ii) the impacts of (i) on the biological components of the ecosystem from algae and phytoplankton to seabirds and marine mammals (including a comparison between what is likely to happen in the Atlantic and Pacific regions); and (iii) an examination of the fisheries management systems in Norway, the US and Japan, including suggestions on how they might prepare for climate changes. -Numerous scientific presentations on RACArctic were given at conferences and symposia and two special sessions were sponsored by the project.

Increasing CO2 in the atmosphere has resulted in rapid warming of the Arctic that in turn has led to record low summer sea-ice extent. In addition, the waters in this high-latitude region are becoming more acidic, threatening rapid corrosion of organisms shells as well as corals. These multiple stressors have already led to observed ecological changes, including to fish populations and their fisheries. Still much is unknown, especially of the processes linking climate to ecological changes, or to adequately predict what will happen under future climate change. To help gain process insights and determine the consequences of expected changes to the ecosystem and humans, RACArctic will bring together the results of relevant scientific research projects, in particular, those affiliated with the Ecosystem Studies of the Subarctic Seas (ESSAS) program. The Project will: 1)review and synthesize impacts of climate change on components of Arctic marine ecosystems;2) compare and contrast the impacts in the Atlantic and Pacific sectors of the Arctic;3)identify major issues of concern, including threats and opportunities, from both biological and socio-economic perspectives;4)review the ability of current management frameworks to adapt to likely future changes;and 5) assess the resilience and adaptive capacity of fish, fisheries, other living resources, resource-dependent communities, and management institutions to future climate change. These will be achieved through a series of workshops, drawing together natural and social scientists, as well as representatives from the fishing industry, regional management bodies, governments and coastal communities from the 3 nations. The resilience and adaptive capacity of the various ecosystems to cope with anticipated changes will be examined. Recommendations on ways fisherman, the fishing industry, management institutions, resource-dependent communities and fishing nations can better adapt to changing climate will be provided.