FACCE MACSUR 2: Modelling European Agriculture with Climate Change for Food Security

FACCE MACSUR - Modelling European Agriculture with Climate Change for Food Security- was established as a European partnership network (Knowledge Hub) in 2012 of 73 partners from 17 countries. The work was organized in three network themes on crop (CROPM), livestock (LiveM) and trade modelling (TradeM) (www.macsur.eu). The overarching challenge was to develop a pan- European capability in the development, use and interpretation of models to perform risk assessments of the impacts of climate change on European agriculture. In the period 2012- 2015 (MACSUR1) Bioforsk, NILF and NMBU/IHA participated as a Norwegian consortium addressing the research themes of the Knowledge Hub. In the period 2015 - 2017 (MACSUR2) the Norwegian Consortium- represented by NIBIO and NMBU continued the work in theme- specific activities in the CropM, LiveM and TradeM network. However, the major focus of involvement in MACSUR2 has been more dedicated to cross-theme activities. Theme-specific activities in CropM include work with implementation of extreme events in crop models. A change in climate with warmer and wetter climate can influence on weed, diseases and pest in plant production. We contributed to the Activity- Closing the yield gap- with activities for grasslands and cereal crops, including a leading role in the quantification of yield gaps for European grasslands. We have developed a Norwegian model (BASGRA) for simulating forage grass production under Nordic climatic conditions including effects of winter stress on yield and yield variation. We have also developed a new method for model simulations to help plant breeders to prioritise in the breeding work depending on which traits that will be important in future climate. Since both summer and winter climate will be changed in the future it is important to have models that can handle extreme events in all seasons, and our gras model is unique in this aspect. Theme specific activities in LiveM have included a leading role of the task: Impacts of impared health, disease and productivity change on GHG emissions and participation of livestock productivity at farm scale level. Calculated emissions of GHG were compared with four different farm scale models. We have lead a study that found a 3.7% reduction in the emissions intensity (i.e. GHG emissions produced per kg product such as milk) was possible through reducing the level of somatic cell count and improving animal health. In LiveM, we participated in modelling grassland quality under climate change and to several activities linking crop production and livestock production. The work included a leading role in bringing together grassland and farm-scale modelling. We have worked with exploring available forage gras models that include functions for simulating forage quality, describing the functions and discuss which variables that should be give priority related to modelling forage quality and forage based livestock production in future climate. Further work have included comparisons of strengths and weaknesses in different models, development of selected models and use of model ensembles to simulate future forage quality in different production systems and regions. In this work, our model BASGRA are developed so it is able to simulate fibre content and digestibility in addition to present simulation of protein content. Theme specific activities in TradeM included effects of consumption on greenhouse gas emissions, regional case studies and dynamic stochastic coupling of weather and food prices. Other aspect included are uncertainty (climate and economic incentives), extremes, and impact assessment for Europe.Scientists with expertise in crop, livestock and economic modelling in Norway have been working with the National case study resulting in a paper entitled:Combining models to estimate the impact of future climate scenarios on feed supply, greenhouse gas emissions and economic performance on dairy farms in Norway. They found that there was a considerable variation between the GHG emissions intensity among different locations and lower emissions intensity maybe expected in the future due to increased milk yield per cow. An important task has been to link the different models so they can be used for the future work with scenario analyses. The scenario development will be linked to the scenarios used internationally in the case study work in MACSUR to compare across regions. As part of the network activities in the project period, Norwegian researchers have exchanged for scientific collaboration to other MACSUR partners for 24 person months. The funding from the Norwegian research Council have also supported workshops and conferences in the Crop, Live, Trade networks in MACSUR. Contacts: Mats Hoglind (Crop), Laila Aass (Livestock), Klaus Mittenzwei (Trade), Lillian Øygarden (Consortium).

FACCE MACSUR focuses on modeling European agriculture with climate change for food security. The work is organized in three themes network on crop, livestock and trade modeling. The partnership consists of 73 partners from 17 countries all over Europe. The overarching challenge is to develop a pan-European capability in the development, use and interpretation of models to perform risk assessments of the impacts of climate change on European agriculture. Bioforsk, NMBU-IHA and NILF have formed a national, Norwegian consortium to address the tasks in FACCE MACSUR. The consortium consists of experts covering the three main disciplines/research themes of the Knowledge-Hub: Crops, Grasslands and Livestock, and Economics and Trade. The consortiums goal is to build a research capacity to increase the understanding of climate change impact on the agriculture and food security. We aim at identifying risks under future climate and production scenarios from a crop, animal, and socio-economic perspective. This will result in increased knowledge about the regional distribution of food production and trade patterns. Interdisciplinary linking of different research themes within the consortium will be a key aspect to reach this goal. International networking within the JPI-FACCE will serve an important role to set the Norwegian risks assessments scenarios in an international context. Specific activities will be organized within the disciplinary themes where collaboration is already established with expected JPI-FACCE participants from other countries. The consortium will also contribute to national information spreading about activities and results and aim at being a link to other national research institutions. The consortium will contribute to international workshops for the Knowledge Hub to fulfill Norway's special committments. Contacts: Mats Höglind (Crops and FACCE-MACSUR), Laila Aass (Livestock) Klaus Mittenzwei (Trade) Lillian Øygarden(Consortium).