Norwegian Energy Road Map 2050

Decision makers globally agreed in Paris in 2015 on ambitious climate targets that require large reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions and changes in the energy system. The project "Norwegian Energy Road Map 2050" has highlighted how the Norwegian energy and power systems can contribute to achieving the national climate targets, and how changes in the energy system can interact with other sectors. The project was carried out by a multidisciplinary group of researchers from SINTEF, IFE and NTNU in collaboration with user partners from Enova, Statnett, Statkraft and Trøndelag County Municipality, as well as a reference group of private and public stakeholders. The results are based on long-term quantitative scenario analyses and an in-depth qualitative study of the role Norwegian hydrogen production may play. The latter is framed within transition studies and the multi-level perspective. Tools for analysing the energy system (TIMES), the power system (Samkjøringsmodellen) and regional-economic effects (REMES) are combined and used in quantitative analyses. The results are presented and discussed in a roadmap for the Norwegian energy system until 2050. The roadmap focuses on 2 main scenarios for 2030 and 2050: the Industry scenario and the Service scenario. The scenarios shed light on the consequence of changing energy demand from the reorganization of sectors with significant greenhouse gas emissions today. In both scenarios, the Norwegian transport sector is decarbonised, while oil and gas operations are either substantially reduced or decommissioned. The scenarios assume increase of other sectors to compensate for the loss of revenues from the oil and gas sectors. A Reference scenario is used for comparison. Main conclusions: - The current trend in Norwegian emissions reductions is not sufficient to reach national climate targets for 2030 or 2050. - There is considerable uncertainty about future energy consumption. The total energy consumption towards 2050 increases in the Reference scenario, is constant in the Industry scenario, and is reduced in the Service scenario. The largest increase in energy consumption, of 30 TWh, is found when the GDP growth estimate from "Perspektivmeldingen" is used. - Without energy efficiency measures, energy consumption will increase by additional 30-60 TWh in the various scenarios in 2050. - National bio resources from waste and forests are not sufficient to decarbonize those parts of the energy system that are difficult to electrify, such as transport. There is a need for new types of usable biomass if nationally produced biofuels are to play a significant role in decarbonising Norwegian transport. This is true even if the transport needs are kept at the 2015 level and are not increased as in the National Transport Plan. - To achieve the Norwegian emission targets for 2050, Norway depends on hydrogen to decarbonize the transport sector or significant breakthroughs in battery technology and / or the possibility of utilizing new types of bio-resources. - There is no need for onshore wind power beyond approved licenses of approx. 22 TWh before 2030 to meet annual national power requirements. - With high shares of solar and wind power generation in Europe, and further national expansion of non-regulable resources, the Norwegian power prices will see a sharp increase in variability both in short-term, between seasons and between years. This makes flexible solutions, such as controllable hydropower, more profitable relative to wind and solar power. - Increased access to clean energy is a prerequisite for maintaining today's economic activity. - Phasing out oil and gas production, thereby also limiting fossil fuel access in many industries, can slow economic growth in Norway. It is demanding to find a replacement technology that can replace the oil and gas sector, but hydrogen, power and biofuels can be parts of the solution. In our analyses, hydrogen has shown the greatest impact on value creation through the export potential and by creating spillover effects to other national industries. Hydrogen from natural gas with CCS ensures continued wealth creation from the continental shelf. Costs of power and CCS are limiting factors for further value creation from hydrogen. - The number of hydrogen application areas is increasing, with more focus on uses such as maritime transport and industry, fleet vehicles (municipal and private service cars) and flexibility in the power grid. - Although the cost of hydrogen technology is declining, significant technical, economic, and social barriers remain. This is especially true for transport and storage solutions. Use in road transport will depend on vehicle infrastructure and access, as well as the development of competing technologies. Hydrogen as an energy carrier in the industry will in many cases require extensive process changes. In maritime applications, there is still a need for technology development.

The project has focused on how the GHG emissions can be reduced in the transport and the industry sectors, since these are main contributors to emissions. Long-term quantitative scenarios studies have shown impacts on the energy and the power system and the overall economy. Qualitative studies about drivers and barriers for national hydrogen production have been conducted and related policy recommendation given. The results were presented in an open workshop. The reference group has been involved through workshops. The analyses have given insights in possible consequences of climate policies. Examples are the demand for hydrogen, biofuels and power and realised power prices for different production technologies in a long-term perspective. For energy consuming industries results like expected characteristics of future power prices are useful insight for use in their strategies. The framework established by the integrated models and the data sets will be useful for further analyses.

"Norwegian Energy Road Map 2050" will establish a knowledge basis for decision makers in industry, authorities, politicians and the public on how a low carbon future can impact the energy, the power and the transmission systems in Norway. We will assess economic spillover effects with other sectors, analyse drivers and barriers for climate policies and provide recommendations on how policy measures can be implemented within a societal, economic and political context. The study will provide complementary knowledge to previous work by e.g. Norwegian Environmental Agency. Based on integration of state-of-the-art tools, long term scenario analysis and studies of multi-level governance the cross-disciplinary research team from SINTEF, IFE and NTNU will provide quantitative and qualitative knowledge about consequences of low carbon futures. Specific measures for reducing emission in Norway will be the basis for quantitative analysis where we apply energy system optimisation (TIMES) and electricity system simulation (EMPS). Selected scenarios will be analysed with the general equilibrium model (REMES) to assess value creation and spillover effects to non-energy sectors. The results from the quantitative and qualitative studies will be elaborated in a "Norwegian Energy Road Map" for 2050, including estimates on GHG emissions, energy and power prices and consumptions, and recommendations for key policy measure implementation. A reference group consisting of representatives from the energy industries and the authorities will contribute with recommendations related to the scientific approach in the project. The reference group will also be important for dissemination of the project results and recommendations directly to the stakeholders.