Understanding the international CONtext for Norways low-emission EConomy Transition (CONNECT)

Norway's climate policy is influenced by international climate policy. The international climate regime, in particular the Kyoto Protocol and the EU, has enabled Norway to pursue a climate policy which emphasizes international cost-effectiveness. A dominant instrument has been emissions trading, which allows for targets to be met by financing emission reductions abroad. The new climate regime under the Paris Agreement (PA) places more emphasis on domestic efforts, leaving some key principles of global cost-effectiveness less prevalent. The PA thus marks a shift to a more nationally oriented, sector-specific approach to climate policy. This shift will have consequences for Norwegian climate policy in the years ahead. CONNECT's main research question was: How will the ongoing shift in international climate policy change the conditions for Norway's shift towards a low-carbon economy? The "international cost-effectiveness" and "national sector-specific" approaches have been used as analytical lenses to explore climate policy decision-making at three levels: the international, the EU, and the national level. The knowledge from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has a great impact on how climate change is shaped as a political issue. The IPCC's work on carbon budgets has played an important role in this respect, also for the PA from 2015. In the autumn of 2018, the IPCC's special report on 1.5 degrees was presented, and in 2021-2022 the main parts of the IPCC's sixth assessment report were completed. The reports, and especially the 1.5 report, have contributed to discussions about strengthened pledges in the UNFCCC, in the EU, in Norway and many other countries. The PA and its rulebook form the international framework for climate policy for the foreseeable future. In 2020, the EU strengthened its contribution to the PA and will cut greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) by at least net 55% within 2030 compared to 1990 levels and have net-zero emissions by 2050. The Green Deal (EUGD) outlines the policy framework for the transition to 2050, and the associated Fit for 55 (FF55) policy package – which is scheduled to be completed in the course of 2022/2023 – will ensure the achievement of the 2030 targets. Norway also submitted a strengthened pledge to the PA in 2020, a 50-55% cut by 2030 compared to 1990 levels. At the climate summit in 2022, the commitment was further strengthened, to 55%. The commitment will be achieved in cooperation with the EU. In 2019, Norway adopted the EU Effort Sharing Regulation and the Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) framework, and since 2008 Norway has cooperated with the EU in the ETS sector. In other words, as of 2022, Norway is cooperating with the EU in all three main pillars of the EU's climate mitigation policy framework. There are flexible mechanisms in and between all the pillars of the EU framework, both nationally and through other EU countries, but there are indications that flexibility opportunities may be narrowed in FF55 when it is fully negotiated. Although FF55 and the EUGD will constitute important framework conditions for Norway's climate policy for decades to come, it is not given that Norway will continue the climate cooperation with the EU in its current form once FF55 has been processed; It depends on what is considered EEA-relevant and what other elements of these policy packages Norway want to cooperate with the EU on, and on what terms. Parliament, the Government and the civil service will decide on these questions. In 2021, a White Paper (WP) was published outlining the Solberg Government's policy proposal for Norway's pathway towards the 2030 climate targets. The WP proposes to use flexible mechanisms in the EU only "if strictly necessary". However, the 2021 WP did not result in Parliament adopting a climate settlement, breaking a tradition going back to 2008. The 2022 Hurdal platform from the Støre Government specifies that all cuts will be made in Norway, including the ETS sector. As part of the follow-up of Norway's climate targets, the Støre Government has developed a new management system for climate policy called the "Green Book" which is presented annually together with the national budget. Due to the lack of a climate settlement Norway's pathway towards the climate targets is unclear. The political pressure to cut GHGs domestically has increased in the wake of the PA. At the same time, Norway has chosen to keep all legal safety valves for emission cuts through international cooperation intact. In other words, Norwegian climate policy in 2022 can be described as a hybrid of a national sector-specific approach coupled with opportunities for the use of international flexible mechanisms. How climate policy up to 2030 turns out will continue to depend on international political processes and future decisions made by Norwegian decision makers, including possible use of and flexible mechanisms in the EU and beyond.

The project has made significant contributions to the scientific literature on climate governance in the aftermath of the Paris Agreement. Particularly the cross-fertilization between political science, sociology and Science and Technology Studies (STS) has contributed to shaping a new avenue of research. A key output from the project in that regard is the PhD thesis titled “Carbon connections: On the work of making climate change an issue for politics and government” which was defended in November 2022. Outputs from the project are part of the curriculum taught in at least two universities. The project has forged new and interdisciplinary collaboration which so far has resulted in several new research projects financed by diverse research funders, including the Research Council of Norway. Insights, networks and initiatives from the project will thus be further developed. Through these endeavors, the project is expected to leave an academic legacy for years to come. One of the project participants is a member of the secretariat of the official Norwegian “2050 Climate Change Committee” and will through that work continue to disseminate findings from the project towards government policymakers. Two other project participants contributed to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group 3 report on climate mitigation, which will continue to be disseminated and impact climate policy. The regular interaction between the project group and the Parliamentary Standing Committee on Energy and the Environment has contributed to more knowledge-based climate policy processes in Norway. An indication of the mutual usefulness of the close interaction between the project team and the Standing Committee is that the cooperation has been extended through a new research project granted by the Research Council of Norway which will last until 2026. Dissemination has been an integral part of the project, as shown by the high number of dissemination activities and outputs, in media, towards university students, for users in both the public and private sector, as well as a several events every year at the political meeting place Arendalsuka. The project organised a final seminar online with more than 180 registered participants, summing up key findings from the project. The seminar was recorded and made available online together with the presentations: https://www.ciens.no/arrangement/ciens-frokostseminar-fra-paris-og-brussel-til-norge-hva-betyr-endringene-i-internasjonal-klimapolitikk-for-norsk-klimaomstilling/

Changes in international climate policy strongly influence Norway's climate governance. The Paris Agreement and Norwegian participation in the EU 2030 effort-sharing agreement marks a significant shift in the international context for Norwegian climate governance. CONNECT asks: How will ongoing shifts in international climate policy change the conditions for Norway's transition to a low-emissions economy? We will develop a novel cross-disciplinary research approach, combining political science and science-technology studies and aim to make notable contributions to the emerging research agenda on climate governance. Importantly, we will facilitate a continuous dialogue with policy makers in a reference group of political advisors from political parties in the Norwegian Parliament. CONNECT will provide policymakers with insights into - How the framework Paris Agreement will develop into more detailed rules and procedures for global climate cooperation and national policy approaches in the years leading up to 2018. - How international climate policy changes influence EU climate policies in the period from 2015 to 2018, and the consequences for EU-level decision-making processes. - How changes in the international context impact Norway's climate policy development up to 2018, and what the implications may be for a long-term low-carbon transition in Norway. CONNECT answers directly to the request in the call for research on - "interactions between instruments and measures (including between Norway and the rest of the world)", highlighting approaches to resolving climate mitigation issues globally, at the European level and domestically - "the driving forces behind and consequences of the EU's climate and energy policy" which is a key focus in the project - "put the authorities in a better position to understand and influence EU policy-making in its early stages" by providing insights into what is going on in Brussel