Integrated Transport and Energy Modelling

The project Integrated Transport and Energy Modeling (ITEM) has studied the possibilities and prerequisites for climate-friendly technology and energy use in road transport, and we have specifically analyzed how the transport sector can be electrified The Institute for Energy Technology (IFE) have been the project coordinator, with the Institute of Transport Economics (TØI) as research partner. The demand for electricity and the load on the electricity grid is increasing as a result of electrification of the transport sector. In ITEM, we have analyzed the development towards 2030 and 2050 and the main focus has been to study the conditions for electrification of road freight transport. Analyzes of the interaction between transport and energy supply and the conditions for electrification have been made both at the national level and in the two transport corridors Oslo-Bergen and Oslo-Trondheim. In order to analyze at the overall national level, we have developed a method for interaction between models for energy, transport and vehicles. This work is documented in a report and an article focusing on results (Roadmap for emission-free road transport) and in a journal article focusing on the effects of the linking between the various models (Modeling the interaction between the energy system and road freight). Important data / parameters that are linked are in) traffic work (vehicle-km / year) which will vary for different types of trucks, as the capacity in battery trucks will be somewhat lower than in conventional trucks and hydrogen trucks, and ii) efficiencies, and how these change over time. We have also harmonized electricity prices and hydrogen prices between the models. The analyzes have been done for two different future paths; The trend path (Slow) that continues the policy as it is today, and Policy path (Fast) with several political instruments. The roadmap for Norwegian road transport presents energy use and greenhouse gas emissions until 2050. The aim has been to shed light on the conditions and to what extent road transport can contribute to reach the climate goals in the non-quota sector. The roadmap shows that, with approximately 50 per cent greater consumption of climate-neutral biofuels than in 2019, it will be possible to cut CO2 emissions in road transport by 60 per cent from 2005 to 2030. In this analysis battery, biogas and hydrogen are assumed used on a large scale; but hydrogen will come primarily after 2035, and then especially for heavy freight vehicles. Until then, mainly batteries and biogas are replacing fossil diesel. The roadmap is based on radical assumptions, including a multiplication of the CO2 tax. The analyzes show that hydrogen infrastructure and hydrogen trucks will need financial support schemes to become competitive with the battery trucks. To understand better the implications of the transition towards battery and hydrogen trucks for the local grid; hydrogen refueling, and fast charging was modelled at three distinct locations in the chosen transport corridors. Based on a novel methodology, the energy demand and optimized system layout was obtained in two future demand cases: i) a mix of hydrogen and battery trucks and ii) battery trucks only. The calculation was made both for 2030 and 2050. When considering local hydrogen production, the power demand is shown to be in similar amplitude while energy demand is higher in the first case. The power demand by 2030 is estimated to 5-10 MW at the chosen locations/areas, while it increases to 60-110 MW in 2050. In a separate work the benefit of co-location of fast charging and hydrogen refueling was studied. The main finding was that the co-localization facilitated integration of local renewable energy from solar panels. The results were presented at the final conference in ITEM on March 1, 2022. The final conference was a physical event that was also steamed (link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i2G9lylJ-1o) and had 60 participants. The ITEM project had three research partners and ten user partners from energy supply, transport and public administration. In addition to IFE and TØI, UC Davis was involved as an international research partner. The user partners Enova, Hallingdal Kraftnett and Elvia contributed with financing, while Statkraft, Mer (formerly Grønn Kontakt), Scania, Lastebileierforbundet, NHO, Statens Vegvesen and Recharge (formerly Fortum Charge & Drive) have been in the reference group in the project.

Vi har analysert koblingen mellom transportsektoren og energisystemet, og sett på hvordan Norges ambisiøse klimamål kan nås gjennom innfasing av nullutslippskjøretøy for godstransport på vei. Vi har utviklet et "veikart" på veien mot nullutslippssamfunnet, med fem indikatorer eller veivisere som kan fastslå om utviklingen går i riktig retning. Indikatorene innbefatter drivstoffsalget, prisene på kjøretøy og energi, ladekapasiteten langs veinettet, andelen nye kjøretøy med nullutslipp, samt nye kjøretøys gjennomsnittlige CO2-utslipp. Dersom vi fremover studerer markedsandelene og CO2-utslippet fra nye kjøretøy kan vi få en form for tidlig varsling om behovet for å korrigere hastigheten eller kursen. Ved å sammenlikne indikatorene med faktiske observasjoner, vil vi derfor få et godt innblikk i om utviklingen går raskt nok. Prosjektets resultater kan brukes som veiledning for beslutningstakere innen politikk-, energi- og næringsutvikling.

Having committed itself to climate policy goals in line with the Paris agreement, the Norwegian government has developed and pursued an increasingly forceful policy in support of zero and low emission automobiles. However, there is a knowledge-gap emerging from the policy targets related to: - policy instruments needed to bring about a massive transition to zero emission energy technology, not only in passenger cars, but also in light and heavy duty freight vehicles - the prerequisites and implications in terms of energy supply, power generation, local and regional grid distribution, and fast charging and hydrogen processing facilities, and - the bottlenecks or synergies that can be envisaged in the interface between the energy and transport market systems The ITEM (Integrated Transport and Energy Modeling) project involves modeling and analyses of the interaction between the Norwegian stationary energy system and the transport sector in order to determine which policies and measures are best suited to reach political targets regarding carbon neutrality and greenhouse gas abatement. The project includes transport corridor analysis and local technological and behavioral modeling, improvement of existing national models of the transport and energy systems, dynamic integration between the energy and transport models, and a comprehensive mapping of how policy measures may impact the energy and transport systems, through carefully designed scenario appraisals. The project will develop the modeling framework needed to analyze how Norway in an effective way can build and utilize new energy infrastructure for the transport sector, both on national and local level. The close and strategic cooperation between the energy system analysis group at IFE and the economics and modeling groups at TØI will be strengthened, which is important for this knowledge building project, but also for future research activities.