Mitigation of societal risks imposed by geohazards in a changing climate through digitalization

Recent climate trends have caused the Norwegian society to witness unprecedented challenges. One of which is frequent, large-scale geohazards events, such as landslides, snow avalanches, and debris flow. Climate projections for Norway indicate an increase in the frequency of triggering events for geohazards such as extreme events of rainfall, snowmelt and temperature changes. Simultaneously, the size of the population and infrastructure vulnerable to geohazards is projected to grow with the expected increase of the Norwegian population. This project aims to reduce societal risks imposed by geohazards in the changing climate with a novel geohazards assessment framework (GAF) supported by the digital technology. The framework will be focused initially on mitigating risks related to shallow landslides and debris flows on a catchment scale. The development of the GAF will be guided with consideration for potential extensions to other types of geohazards in future studies. The development of the novel framework will be supported by a broad spectrum of opportunities in geohazards assessment that are provided by the recent advances in the environmental Internet of Things (IoT). The environmental IoT will support reduction of geohazards risks in the novel GAF through the development of (a) advanced technology for real time monitoring of geohazards, (b) improved geohazards and climate prediction models, and (c) novel technical/economic opportunities. Resolving these knowledge needs will contribute to the ability of decision makers and infrastructure operators to gain direct insights in the effects of climate change on geohazards, develop robust geohazards predictions and early warning systems, and implement reliable risk reduction measures. The project involves research institutions SINTEF, NTNU, and MET, industry partners Nordic Semiconductor, Telia, and Geonor, and public partners NVE and NPRA. The project has been successfully implemented in the period from April 2018 until December 2021. Researchers in WP1 developed an IoT protype for monitoring water-induced landslides. The development of the prototype was finalized during 2020 with close collaboration between the industry and research partners. The protype was installed in the project case study in 2020 and tested in operating conditions. The prototype provided the project with useful information on hydrological conditions in slopes and experience on the performance of IoT systems in harsh weather conditions. The IoT-based monitoring system provided important information on the changes in hydrological conditions in response to rainfall and snow melt events. The data from the IoT system were used in WP2 to further improve understanding of hydrological conditions on slopes in seasonally cold climates, develop methods to calibrate landslide models on monitoring data, evaluate the effects of climate change on rainfall-induced landslides, and develop a local landslide warning system. Development of calibration methods allowed the project to use measurements from the IoT system to reduce uncertainties in landslide model parameters and improve landslide predictions. Studies on the effects of climate change on landslide susceptibility demonstrated that the climate change is likely to increase the frequency of rainfall-induced landslides and the size of landslide susceptible areas. Local landslide warning system was implemented to provide near real-time landslide predictions based on data collected from the IoT monitoring system. Research activities in WP3 were aimed at providing weather predictions and climate projections for the case study area. The weather predictions were obtained from the available services at MET. Research on the effects of climate change was focused on developing climate-dependent intensity-duration-frequency curves. The intensity-duration-frequency were developed for the current and future climate to evaluate the effects of climate change on rainfall in the case study area. The developed curves were used in WP2 to quantify the effects of climate change on rainfall-induced landslides. The research activities in WP4 were focused on the implementation and operation of the case study. The case study was implemented in 2020 with the deployment of the IoT monitoring solutions for water-induced landslides. The information on landslide triggering parameters from the case study were important in understanding the performance of IoT monitoring systems, development of improved landslides predictions, and quantification of the effects of climate change on water-induced landslides.

The capacity of the developed IoT technology to collect data on hydrological conditions on sloped terrain provided valuable insights on the effects weather patterns in seasonally cold climates on slope stability. These data increased the corresponding knowledge base at several research and public organisations including. The developed IoT solution advanced the industrial and research knowledge base within the application of IoT technologies for monitoring various geohazards. The project developed novel methodologies that improve landslide predictions both in short- and long-term periods. Improved landslide predictions impact the ability of decision makers and infrastructure operators to reduce societal risks through early warnings in the short-term and plan long-term measures for mitigating risks from climate change. The project findings impacted education of students and practitioners with lectures and student involvement through projects, master and PhD theses.

Recent climate trends have caused the Norwegian society to witness unprecedented challenges. One of which is frequent, large-scale geohazards events, such as landslides, snow avalanches, and debris flows. Climate projections for Norway indicate an increase in the frequency of triggering events for geohazards such as extreme events of rainfall, snowmelt and temperature changes. Simultaneously, the size of the population and infrastructure vulnerable to geohazards is projected to grow with the increase of the Norwegian population to more than 8 million by 2100.These risks result in immediate knowledge needs that will support a thorough transition towards a climate aware, sustainable, growing and prosperous Norwegian society. This project aims to reduce societal risks imposed by geohazards in the changing climate with a novel geohazards assessment framework (GAF) supported by the digital technology. The development of the novel framework will be supported by a broad spectrum of opportunities in geohazards assessment that are provided by the recent advances in the environmental Internet of Things (IoT). The environmental IoT will support reduction of geohazards risks in the novel GAF through the development of (a) advanced technology for real time monitoring of geohazards, (b) improved geohazards and climate prediction models, and (c) novel technical/economic opportunities. Resolving these knowledge needs will increase the ability of decision makers and infrastructure operators to gain direct insights in the effects of climate change on geohazards, develop robust geohazards predictions and early warning systems, and implement reliable risk reduction measures. The competences developed in the project will strengthen the research partners, contribute to the education of climate aware researchers and practitioners at NTNU, adapt the roles of governmental organizations, and provide a basis for innovative products and services at the industry partners.