Green Curses and Violent Conflicts: The Security Implications of Renewable Energy Sector Development in Africa

An estimated half of the violent conflicts in Africa since the mid-1990s have been linked to natural resources and energy. This phenomenon, known as the “resource curse” or “paradox of plenty,” refers to the paradox where abundant natural resources lead to conflict rather than economic growth. As Africa increasingly turns to green, renewable energy projects to meet its energy demands and tackle climate change, an important question arises: How can we prevent a resource curse in the emerging renewable energy sector across African nations? This issue is particularly pressing given that, within the next few decades, nearly half of Africa's power production is expected to be sourced from renewable energies like wind, solar, hydro, and biofuels. The Green Curses research project has explored the potential for a “green curse” in African countries, where renewable energy projects and investments might ignite violent conflicts. The project has three primary objectives: 1) To map data on violent conflict and renewable energy developments. 2) To systematically understand the pathways and mechanisms by which the green energy sector and its value chains might either trigger or mitigate conflicts, including the collection of original data in Uganda. 3) To map and assess current and proposed cooperative governance frameworks for the green energy sector and associated mineral value chains in Africa. The project pursued these goals using various methods. To address the first aim, we gathered data on the setup of renewable energy sites across five East African countries and conducted quantitative analyses on their association with violence. These analyses indicate a correlation between renewable energy projects and conflict, although they do not clarify the causality. However, they underscore the importance of addressing conflict in green energy project implementations. The second aim was addressed, through an extensive literature review, we identified potential conflict pathways triggered by renewable energy development. This mapping linked types of renewable energy activities (such as mining, development, and production), mechanisms, and forms of violence (including protests, communal violence, civil, and international conflicts). This analysis parallels findings from traditional resource curse literature, noting issues like land disputes, compensation conflicts, employment grievances, environmental degradation, and the protection of indigenous heritage. Specific challenges to renewable energy production were also noted, such as restricted access to generated power and disputes related to land use, like cattle grazing near wind farms. Further, fieldwork was conducted at two hydroelectric projects in Uganda—the Karuma Hydroelectric Power Station at Karuma Falls on the Nile River in Kiryandongo District, and the Isimba Hydroelectric Power Station in Kayunga District. The findings from these studies confirmed many mechanisms previously identified in the literature review, especially concerning compensation issues. Lastly, for the third aim, we reviewed existing policy and legal frameworks that could mitigate conflict potential during Africa’s transition to green energy. Our comprehensive legislative analysis covered 48 Sub-Saharan African countries and evaluated approximately 1,000 laws. This review revealed that while most necessary legal frameworks are in place, the emphasis should be on enforcing and implementing these laws effectively. It also identified areas where legal provisions are underdeveloped, suggesting a focus on legislative development. By addressing these aims, the project contributes crucial insights into how to foster a peaceful and sustainable energy transition in Africa.

The Green Curses project has managed to put the issue of conflict potential with in the renewable energy sector in Africa on the agenda at several organizations (UNEP, UNDP, NRGI), this is an issues that is challenging to discuss, as renewable energy is needed in the work towards climate change mitigation. The project has highlighted the issues from serval angles: what are the pathways to conflicts, relationship between renewable energy projects and violent events, host community experiences, with a particular focus on indigenous people, and a review of the existing laws controlling renewable energy projects. These insights has been published in a set of articles, policy briefs and a series of 20 blog posts giving a deep dive into specific cases. The results of the project has also been presented at several at several seminars and meetings. In the future we hope that results from this project will inform how renewable energy project are designed in the future.

Africa is seeing a rise in the production and use of renewable energy from hydro, solar, and wind power as well as from biomass resources. Yet the continent’s track record in natural resource, energy, and environmental management is poor, with many African countries rich in natural resources having paradoxically suffered from the “resource curse”. Instead of being blessed, resource wealth has instead cursed many Africa countries by bringing about violent conflict, autocratic rule, and entrenched poverty. The enormous increase in renewable energy in Africa in recent years, and the projections for these sectors’ continued growth in the near future as part of poverty alleviation strategies, has not been accompanied by a parallel increase in research on the consequences of this energy revolution. The development of renewable energy projects and sectors pose a set of unique challenges for African states that have not been adequately explored in research, mostly urgently the potential for these sectors and the mineral value chains that support them to trigger violent conflict. We therefore proposed a mixed-method, interdisciplinary project to improve knowledge about 1) the state of renewable energy in Africa; 2) the pathways by which renewable energy conflicts occur; and 3) the types of mechanisms required to prevent and resolve them. We will provide the first cross-continent mapping of knowledge and data on renewable energy sectors and mineral value chains, and of relevant legal and voluntary governance initiatives regulating these sectors. We will generate evidence-based policy recommendations about how to avoid and prevent renewable energy conflicts through a systematic, cross-country analysis of existing evidence as well as through in-depth study of “green curse” dynamics in Uganda. The project will identify paths to violent conflict useful for actors in renewable energy sectors, and propose new violence-preventing institutional solutions in these sectors.