Transport, inequality and political opposition (TRIPOP)

In the TRIPOP project, we study transport policy, social inequality, and political participation in Norwegian urban areas. The project concerns how different groups are affected by road tolls and congestion pricing, how they adapt, and whether distributional impacts of transport policies can explain the citizens’ attitudes, electoral participation, and party support. Many of the research activities depart from an extensive data set leased from Statistics Norway which includes car ownership combined with a number of household characteristics and outcomes, including electoral turnout and property transactions. We now have access to detailed data up until and including 2021, which gives new opportunities for studying recent developments. Another key source of data is data on road tolls, both geographically and over time. We have established a complete dataset on historical toll rates up until and including 2021. The data are documented in at research report which describes the development of road toll collection and are publicly available in the repository DataverseNO. The data show that the extent of road tolls has increased and that an increasing number of people are exposed to road tolls or their work commutes. We have also conducted surveys concerning travel behavior and attitudes related to the changes in the Oslo toll cordon in 2019. These data are coded geographically such that one can distinguish between potential winners and losers from the new toll system. We are also working on a paper on the effect of road tolls on electoral participation and party support. PhD student Erik B. Lunke has published his first paper in the project, in which he studies social inequalities in transport accessibility on work commutes in the Oslo region. The results show a positive association between socio-economic status and public transport accessibility on the work commute. In his second paper, Erik studies moving decisions and the choice of residence of families with children. PhD student Erik B. Lunke has published two articles in the project. In the first, he looks at social differences in transport offers for business trips in the Oslo region. The results show a positive association between socioeconomic status and public transport accessibility on the work trip. The second article is about the choice of place of residence among first-time parents. Lunke finds that these trade away public transport accessibility for more space, but that this applies less to families of immigrant background. Elisabeth T. Isaksen and Bjørn G. Johansen have studied the effect of congestion pricing in the city of Bergen on traffic, air quality and car ownership. The paper is available in the Grantham institute working paper series. The results show that congestion pricing has led to less traffic, a lower NO2 concentration and a higher electric vehicle share among those who pass the toll cordon on their work commutes. In another paper, we have studied the effect of road tolls and bus lanes on the work commute among all households in Norway. The results indicate that privileges for electric vehicles have amplified the impact of these policies in terms of lowering CO2 emissions, but that they have also contributed to higher car ownership. We have also investigated the effect of partial introduction of tolls for electric cars in the Oslo toll ring in 2019 on car ownership and the choice of car. Here, too, we use data on the work trip. The results show that the more one was affected by this change, the less chance of acquiring an electric car, which in isolation contributes to increased greenhouse gas emissions. Still, electric car ownership has increased also after this change. We hope that our project will contribute to a better factual basis for urban transport policies as well as a more informed public debate about these important issues. The findings will also be relevant for policy-making related to the green transition in other sectors. Webpage: https://www.toi.no/tripop/

Policies that raise the cost of car travel in urban areas are controversial and are often claimed to have negative distributional effects. In this project, we will (1) explore the relationship between travel demand and inequality, (2) estimate the distributional effects or congestion charging and other urban transport policies and (3) investigate whether such effects can explain opposition against policies and lower political legitimacy. This is relevant also for understanding opposition towards other environmental policies. Evidence on distributional effects of transport policies are often based on ex-ante simulations. Our project will contribute to the literature by estimating the effects ex-post based on observed behavior, using individual-level data based on administrative registries, the transport network, national travel surveys, traffic counts, toll payments, air quality data and before/after surveys conducted as part of the projects. We will build on the transportation literature as well as the theoretical framework from the Scandinavian welfare and level of living research, combining the disciplines economics, human geography, sociology and political science. The project consists of the following work packages: Spatial inequality in access to and demand for transport services (WP1), Travel behavior and adaption to policy changes (WP2), Environmental effects (WP3), Redistributive effects of transport policies (WP4), Political support for and opposition towards transport policies (WP5) and Policy implications (WP6). The project will be carried in co-operation between the Institute of Transport Economics and the Frisch Centre with contributions from scientific experts in the field, and also in close co-operation with stakeholders from the public sector and NGOs. The project includes one PhD and will contribute to competence building among other young researchers.