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KLIMAFORSK-Stort program klima

Arctic Community Resilience to Boreal Environmental change: Assessing Risks from fire and disease

Awarded: NOK 2.9 mill.

Increasing risk to Arctic communities from wildfire and disease The Arctic has warmed rapidly over recent decades, at around twice the rate of global mean temperature increases, resulting in rapid changes to the high latitude Earth system. Key consequences of this warming are increases in temperature extremes and changing precipitation patterns, which in turn is leading to increasing trends in boreal wildfire and changes in the distribution of disease-carrying vectors. Recent years have seen unprecedented fire activity at Arctic latitudes, leading to unhealthy air quality in high latitude towns and cities. This trend continued in 2021, where numerous large fires made the headlines in the media. Vector-borne disease occurrence in these regions is also changing in response to rapid changes in temperature and moisture. Moreover, fire activity is intrinsically linked to changes in vector-borne disease risk through changing the habitat conditions for vectors and their hosts. Knowledge of the community resilience and response to these changing risks is currently hampered by insufficient understanding of environmental, social, and governance factors specific to high latitudes. In the "Arctic Community Resilience to Boreal Environmental change: Assessing Risks from fire and disease" (ACRoBEAR) project, an interdisciplinary team of experts from the UK, Sweden, Norway, Finland, Russia, France and the USA will tackle these urgent issues. The goal of the project is to predict and understand health risks from wildfire air pollution and natural-focal disease at high latitudes, under rapid Arctic climate change, and resilience and adaptability of communities across the region to these risks. A key step towards this is detailed knowledge of how the meteorological and climatic conditions that are conducive to high fire risk can be expected to change in high latitude regions. An ongoing project activity is the statistical analyses of new output from Earth system models, with the objective to characterize the changing mean state and variability of key fire weather variables such as temperature, precipitation and wind under different levels of global warming and across several regions and seasons.

How resilient are Arctic communities to boreal environmental change and risks from fire and disease? The Arctic has warmed rapidly over recent decades, at around twice the rate of global mean temperature increases, resulting in rapid changes to the high latitude Earth system. Changes in the high latitude terrestrial environment include observed increases in temperature extremes and precipitation patterns, which are leading to increasing trends in boreal wildfire and changes in the distribution of disease-carrying vectors, with evidence for emerging interactions between these changing risks. Recent years (including 2019) have seen unprecedented fire activity at Arctic latitudes, leading to unhealthy air quality in high latitude towns and cities. Vector-borne disease occurrence in these regions is also changing in response to rapid changes in temperature and moisture. Moreover, fire activity is intrinsically linked to changes in vector-borne disease risk through changing the habitat conditions for vectors and their hosts. Environmental, social, and governance factors specific to high latitudes hamper our current ability to understand community resilience and response to these changing risks. The "Arctic Community Resilience to Boreal Environmental change: Assessing Risks from fire and disease" (ACRoBEAR) project will tackle these urgent issues in the most rapidly warming region of the planet. The goal of the project is to predict and understand health risks from wildfire air pollution and natural-focal disease at high latitudes, under rapid Arctic climate change, and resilience and adaptability of communities across the region to these risks. ACRoBEAR is a project under the Belmont Forum and brings together a diverse, international, interdisciplinary team of world-leading research groups and collaborators from the UK, Sweden, Norway, Finland, Russia, France and the USA.

Publications from Cristin

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Funding scheme:

KLIMAFORSK-Stort program klima

Thematic Areas and Topics

Miljø og naturmangfoldPolitikk- og forvaltningsområderHelse og omsorgPortefølje Klima- og polarforskningPortefølje Industri og tjenestenæringerLTP2 Rettede internasjonaliseringstiltakLTP2 Klima, polar og miljøFNs BærekraftsmålPolitikk- og forvaltningsområderSkog, landbruk og matNordområdeneArktisPolarLTP2 Global utvikling, ulikhet og demokratibyggingKlimaMiljø og naturmangfoldGlobale miljøutfordringerPolitikk- og forvaltningsområderAndre partnerskapsaktiviteter (ny fra 2014)Belmont ForumLTP2 Klima, miljø og miljøvennlig energiLTP2 Helse, forebygging og behandlingLTP2 Utvikle fagmiljøer av fremragende kvalitetHelseInternasjonaliseringInternasjonalt samarbeid om utlysningGlobal helsePortefølje HelseKlimaKlimaeffekter og klimatilpasningerFNs BærekraftsmålMål 13 Stoppe klimaendringeneAndre partnerskapsaktiviteter (ny fra 2014)Miljø og naturmangfoldTerrestrisk naturmangfold, økosystemer og økosystemtjenesterBransjer og næringerPortefølje Landbasert mat, miljø og bioressurserPortefølje Global utvikling og internasjonale relasjonerLTP2 Fornyelse i offentlig sektorFNs BærekraftsmålMål 3 God helsePolitikk- og forvaltningsområderMiljø, klima og naturforvaltningJoint Programming Initiative (JPI) (ny fra 2014)InternasjonaliseringInternasjonalt prosjektsamarbeidAnvendt forskningLTP2 Styrket konkurransekraft og innovasjonsevneDelportefølje Klima og miljøBransjer og næringerHelsenæringenPortefølje Naturvitenskap og teknologiPortefølje Humaniora og samfunnsvitenskapLTP2 Et kunnskapsintensivt næringsliv i hele landetPolarArktisNordområdeneInternasjonaliseringKlimaGlobale klimautfordringerLTP2 Samfunnssikkerhet og samhørighetNordområdeneKlima, miljø og biologiske ressurserMiljø og naturmangfoldTerrestrisk forurensning inkl. miljøgifterBransjer og næringerSkog og trebrukJoint Programming Initiative (JPI) (ny fra 2014)JPI Climate