Rapid Arctic environmental Changes: implications for well-being, resilience and Evolution of Arctic communities

Funded under the Belmont Forum Collaborative Research Action on Resilience in Rapidly Changing Arctic Systems , RACE investigated the impacts of rapid climate and environmental changes in the Arctic on infrastructure and pan-Arctic and regional population dynamics. RACE had the following objectives: - To assess rapid Arctic climate and environmental changes relevant to the infrastructure and human population - To identify the regional mechanisms through which infrastructure factors and socioeconomic indicators are affected by climate-economy-society feedbacks - To quantitatively assess the responses of regional human well-being indicators and population dynamics factors to environmental changes - To develop the pan-Arctic and regional population dynamics umbrella scenarios under different climate change scenarios and associated projections for the environment - To develop recommendations on mitigating the climate-induced effects on the Arctic communities for a sustainable development of indigenous peoples and human well-being. To address these RACE assembled a highly interdisciplinary team from across the globe. This included climate scientists from the University of Bergen (UiB), the CNRS l Institut des Geosciences de l’Environnement and the Shirshov Institute of Oceanology of Russian Academy of Science. It also included Arctic physical and social geographers from the George Washington University, and economists and social scientists from the Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences. Furthermore, the team interacted with dedicated practitioners around the world, representing consultancy and industries, governmental environmental and risk management agencies, and NGOs. UiBs role in the project was firstly to provide general expertise on the role of the Arctic in the climate system. Secondly, the university was tasked with delivering tailored information on future climate change in the Arctic, including uncertainty estimates. This information was based on output from multi-model simulations used for the latest IPCC report and as produced by the UiB team. Overall, RACE achieved its main objectives. This was despite the challenges imposed by the COVID-19 pandemic and the ongoing geopolitical situation that impeded regular collaboration and in-person meetings throughout the lifetime of the project. This is particularly problematic for interdisciplinary projects such as RACE. RACE compiled and used the best available datasets from observations, reanalysis, and climate model simulations to achieve its objectives. Major progress was achieved in the identification of the regional mechanisms through which infrastructure factors and socioeconomic indicators are affected by climate-economy-society feedback. Progress was also achieved in the quantitative assessment of the responses of regional human wellbeing indicators and population dynamics factors to environmental changes. For example, a collaboration between GWU and IEFRAS was enriched by in-depth joint analysis of the permafrost impact onto different sectors of the economy of the Arctic regions using an earlier designed database of socio-economic and demographic parameters for circumpolar Arctic. IGE together with IORAS and University of Bergen analysed extreme moisture transports in the Arctic and its connections to the high latitude hydrological cycle. Also, IGE and IORAS established cooperation on the analysis of the hydrological cycle of the Arctic and sub-Arctic Eurasia. UiBs main contribution to the project objectives has been to deliver key knowledge on the potential contribution of decadal variability to changes in Arctic climate over the coming decades. We have shown how variations in the Pacific and Atlantic Ocean can drive shifts in Arctic climate over 10 to 20 years. Our work highlighted the influence of the tropical ocean and the Gulf Stream and Kuroshio Current on high-latitude climate, namely on the weather patterns in the Atlantic and Eurasian sector. We showed the importance of considering these factors when making socio-economic projections for the Arctic region.

RACE has produced databases documenting climate and environmental changes in the present and future climate, assessments of their impact onto community well being, climate-mediated pan-Arctic and regional population dynamics projections and recommendations on future sustainable development of the Arctic communities. All RACE databases are available in recognized data and metadata formats and protocols of major Data Assembly Centers for unlimited storage,maintenance and dissemination. These results have contributed to the IPCC Assessment Report Six, and are of relevance for Arctic Council Assessments and to the national Climate Change and Sustainability Reports, thus helping to implement the growing changing environment factor in building strategies for social-economic development in the Arctic and pan-Arctic regions in the 21st century.

Funded under the Belmont Forum Collaborative Research Action on Resilience in Rapidly Changing Arctic Systems, RACE addresses the impacts of rapid climate and environmental changes in the Arctic on infrastructure and pan-Arctic and regional population dynamics. By using best available datasets from in-situ and satellite observations and reanalyses together with CMIP6 climate model simulations, RACE will develop improved regional assessments of Arctic Social Indicators. These will be further used for projections of population dynamics factors as well as demographic and life quality trends of Arctic communities. For the first time, results of large-scale climate diagnostics and projections will be used and translated into social indicators and further into demographic variables by using socioeconomic and demographic models, thus providing accurate regional projections of the Arctic population dynamics which presently routinely rely exclusively on economy forecasts. In RACE, UiB (NO) will not only provide general expertise on the role of the Arctic in the climate system but also tailored information including uncertainty estimates on future climate change in the Arctic, based on output from multi-model simulations from CMIP6, simulations from the Norwegian Climate Prediction Model, and from a super climate model developed with the ERC STERCP project. UiB, with CNRS IGE (FR) and IORAS (RU), will constitute the experienced teams of climate scientists in RACE. They are further complemented by the group of Arctic physical and social geographers from GWU (USA) and the team of economists and social scientists from IEFRAS (RU). Together, they will closely interact with in-kind partners from leading universities and dedicated practitioners around the world, representing consultancy and industries, governmental environmental and risk management agencies and NGOs.