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KLIMAFORSK-Stort program klima

Downscaling Climate and Ocean Change to Services: Thresholds and Opportunities

Awarded: NOK 2.8 mill.

Projections of climate and ocean change have been delivered at global or basin scales using Earth System Models (ESMs). However, such models do not necessarily provide the proper representations of local physical and biological processes, which in turn limits the ability to capture key processes that are affecting the regional climate change impact such as ocean acidification, warming, and deoxygenation. This could lead to large uncertainty in the eventual projected consequences on regional ecosystem services. CE2COAST takes a co-production approach involving ESM modelers, regional model developers, and stakeholders. We aim to generate and analyze customized regional observational datasets to deliver empirical understanding of the state, variability and trends of ocean and coastal service pressures. We will also deliver state-of-the-art downscaled simulations of oceanic response to climate change at basin to regional/coastal scales. And finally, we will produce research strategies with stakeholders and communicate new project knowledge to relevant management, regulatory, industrial and societal organizations.

Global change will have significant impacts at regional and coastal scales on marine systems, dependent socioeconomic systems, ocean services and can strongly interact with regional pressures. CE2COAST delivers transnational added value through strategically combining national expertise across oceanography, marine biogeochemistry and ecology, data and database management, earth system, marine and ecosystem modelling and science policy communication. The primary novelty of will be an observation-driven synthesis of downscaling methodology to provide better process resolution and system representations that are tailored to regional/coastal domains and their associated pressures/services. It will compile and analyze new targeted, fit-for-purpose marine observations datasets from existing and new project observations of ocean climate, biogeochemistry and relevant ecological indicators. We will deliver Earth System Model simulations from the CMIP archive that will be downscaled for hindcasting and projecting physical and biogeochemical fields in the regional and coastal ocean providing past/future states and climate change signals. A capacity to understand and predict these impacts on regional seas and coasts is essential for developing robust strategies for adaptation and mitigation. To inform adaptation policy to ocean and coastal change, we will deliver key new knowledge to end-users through dissemination activities. We will integrate stakeholder clusters in project-long decision making for co-production of relevant science products for specific scientific, management, regulatory, industrial and ocean service applicable assessments to deliver an integrated European evaluation of marine health. It will contribute knowledge crucial to reducing economic, scientific and social disparity across Europe. We will encourage knowledge transfer through common goals with a focus on JPI Climate and Oceans, IPCC, UN SDGs, MSP, CFP, MSFD, WFD and the Arctic Council.

Publications from Cristin

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Funding scheme:

KLIMAFORSK-Stort program klima