European countries are decarbonising their energy systems to meet climate targets. To achieve this, large amounts variable renewable energy (VRE) sources must be integrated in the power production. Consequently, the need for storage and flexibility increases. Improved knowledge on how hydropower can be used to balance VRE across timescales ranging from seconds to seasons are needed. HydroConnect has modelled power capacities in European energy sector for 2050 by the SCOPE model, assuming that a net-zero target will be reached. The power capacities are transferred into the power market model FanSi, designed to analyse large-scale energy systems. The FanSi model is used to compare socioeconomic surplus, power prices and hydropower reservoir operation between two main scenarios, "baseline" and "expanded". In the expanded scenario, we have added 11 GW of capacity to Norwegian hydropower including 5,2 GW of pumped storage as well as 11 GW more transmission capacity between Norway and Sweden, Denmark, Germany, Netherlands and the UK. Increased capacity in Norwegian hydropower will only use existing reservoirs withing existing limits of operation without impacting rivers. The baseline scenario has a very limited further development of Norwegian hydropower and only1,4GW of additional transmission capacity to the UK.
Results show that the total system operational costs are reduced as a result of the hydropower and transmission expansions in the expanded case.The expansions lead to a greater uniformity in both average price levels and price volatility across regions. In other words, differences in price levels and differences in price volatilities across regions are reduced. Price levels and price volatility increase from initially relatively low levels in Norway, while they decrease from initially high levels in continental Europe and UK. The expansions reduce price spikes during periods of low wind/solar output in continental Europe and the UK. On other hand, prices tend to increase in Norway – especially the southern part of Norway – in the same periods. While Norway has a significant net positive power balance in all analysed scenarios, we find that power flows on Norway-Europe HVDC connections are highly bidirectional: The interconnections are frequently used for both import and export within monthly, weekly and daily timescales.
There is no clear pattern in the effects in Norwegian hydropower reservoirs of the expanded case compared to baseline. There is a tendency that very low water levels occurs more often in the baseline scenario, while the water level is more frequently closer to maximum level the expanded scenario. The ice conditions are more vulnerable to form cracks in many reservoirs in the expanded situation, most likely due to more rapid variatons in water level.
Looking at the necessary installed capacities in European power and energy storage in both baseline and expanded scenarios, investing in 11 GW hydropower and interconnectors, will reduce the need for investing in solar PV, electrolysers and batteries in Europe with about 70 GW in total.
European countries are decarbonising their energy systems to meet climate targets. To achieve this, large amounts variable renewable energy (VRE) sources must be integrated in the power production. Consequently, the need for storage and flexibility increases.Improved knowledge on how hydropower can be used to balance VRE across timescales ranging from seconds to seasons are needed. HydroConnect has modelled power capacities in European energy sector for 2050 by the SCOPE model, assuming that a net-zero target will be reached. The power capacities are transferred into the power market model FanSi, designed to analyse large-scale energy systems. The FanSi model is used to compare socioeconomic surplus, power prices and hydropower reservoir operation between two main scenarios, "baseline" and "expanded". In the expanded scenario, we have added 11 GW of capacity to Norwegian hydropower including 5,2 GW of pumped storage as well as 11 GW more transmission capacity between Norway and Sweden, Denmark, Germany, Netherlands and the UK. The baseline scenario has a very limited further development of Norwegian hydropower and only1,4GW of additional transmission capacity to the UK.
Results show that the total system operational costs are reduced as a result of the hydropower and transmission expansions in the expanded case.The expansions lead to a greater uniformity in both average price levels and price volatility across regions. In other words, differences in price levels and differences in price volatilities across regions are reduced. Price levels and price volatility increase from initially relatively low levels in Norway, while they decrease from initially high levels in continental Europe and UK. The expansions reduce price spikes during periods of low wind/solar output in continental Europe and the UK. On other hand, prices tend to increase in Norway – especially the southern part of Norway – in the same periods. While Norway has a significant net positive power balance in all analysed scenarios, we find that power flows on Norway-Europe HVDC connections are highly bidirectional: The interconnections are frequently used for both import and export within monthly, weekly and daily timescales.
There is no clear pattern in the effects in Norwegian hydropower reservoirs of the expanded case compared to baseline. There is a tendency that very low water levels occurs more often in the baseline scenario, while the water level is more frequently closer to maximum level the expanded scenario. The ice conditions are more vulnerable to form cracks in many reservoirs in the expanded situation, most likely due to more rapid variatons in water level.
Looking at the necessary installed capacities in European power and energy storage in both baseline and expanded scenarios, investing in 11 GW hydropower and interconnectors, will reduce the need for investing in solar PV, electrolysers and batteries in Europe with about 70 GW in total.
European countries are decarbonising their energy systems to meet climate targets. To achieve this, large amounts of wind and solar power generation are replacing fossil sources, drastically increasing the share of unregulated power production. Consequently, the need for storage and flexibility increases.
Improved knowledge on how hydropower can be used to balance variable renewable energy sources (VRE) are needed. Based on the results from the HydroBalance project and power system scenarios from openENTRANCE, HydroConnect will evaluate the effects of the Norwegian hydropower system providing balancing services to the European power system at short (2030) and long (2050) time horizons with different scenarios of power system development. The project will analyse the effects of using Norwegian hydropower for large-scale balancing for continental Europe and the UK, answering important research questions:
1. How can Norwegian hydropower contribute to the decarbonisation of the European power system?
2. What are the consequences on the Norwegian power system of delivering balancing services to Europe?
3. What are the implications of participating in several markets on operations and income of hydropower plants?
4. What will be the impacts of future hydropower operations on environmental conditions in reservoirs?
An important novelty of HydroConnect is the interdisciplinary approach, allowing for consistent analyses of weather, load, generation, operation of hydropower plants and reservoirs, hydrodynamic processes and environmental conditions in reservoirs. Through linking several models, the analyses will stretch from a European level down to specific catchments and single reservoirs in the hydro system. The project will provide novel insights to economic and environmental impacts of hydropower operations in Norwegian reservoirs by using state-of-the-art models in scenario analyses of economic consequences, CO2-emissions and for environmental impacts in reservoirs.
