LAND: Norwegian Insect Red Lists 2010 and 2015: optimising the use of species occurrence data for objective evaluation of endangered status

During the reporting period we concluded our study of how the amount of data affects the performance of species distribution modeling and started an investigation of how bias in the original data can affect the models. Defined in general terms, bias in sp ecies distribution dataset can be defined as over- or under-representation of particular parts of the study area. Bias can potentially lead to suboptimal models. In collection-based datasets, bias is typically caused by the fact that specimens are sampled near the places where collectors live, in more easily accessible localities (roadside bias), or in localities that are considered interesting (hotspot bias). It is useful to distinguish between the geographic bias (that occurs in geographic space) and en vironmental bias (that occurs in the environmental, or ecological niche, space). Strong geographic bias does not necessarily result in environmental bias. It is the latter that is important in the context of distribution modeling, because the process of m odeling itself is done in the environmental conceptual space. We are developing a method of detecting bias in the dataset and evaluating the effect of bias on the model, using species response curves (species performance along major environmental gradient s).

The project will use species occurrence data, obtained from existing databases, natural history museum collections and field work, to develop a scientifically sound and objective approach to evaluation of the endangered species status for the new editions of the Norwegian Red List (planned by Artsdatabanken for 2010 and 2015). Our evaluation will be built on species distribution predictions, based on ecological niche modelling using published algorithms and existing software. The project will be led by a group of experts at the Natural History Museum, University of Oslo, in cooperation with colleagues from other Norwegian and Scandinavian museums. The project will include one PhD student (stipendiat) (co-funded by NFR and NHM), and several Master studen ts and interns (no NFR funding required). The project will directly contribute to our understanding, sustainable use and efficient management of the natural environment. The new approaches will be implemented in preparation of the Norwegian Red Lists 201 0 and 2015, aiming to provide decision makers, scientists and general public with up-to-date information about the status of the most vulnerable component of the Norwegian biota.