The effect of political uncertainty in fisheries management: A case study of the Northeast Arctic cod fishery

We seek to investigate the effects of political uncertainty on fisheries, with a special focus on non-compliance with quota regulations. Institutional or political uncertainty is sometimes referred to as uncertainty about the rules of the game. We look at institutional uncertainty on two levels; (1) individual firms' uncertainty about future regulations, and (2) national fishery managers' uncertainty about the actions of the managers of other nations in shared fisheries. Our research can be split into two main parts. First, we look at the problem of illegal, unreported and unregulated (IUU) fishing. This is a topic that is receiving increased attention worldwide, and combating IUU fishing in Norwegian fisheries has been given very high importance by Norw egian authorities. The topic is therefore highly relevant. Our approach to IUU fishing is to analyse the effects of political and institutional uncertainty on regulatory compliance, particularly for the management of shared fish stocks. This is the topic of WP1 and WP2. Second, we analyse the effects of regulations and uncertainty about future regulatory regime on the behaviour of fishing firms. The effects of uncertainty in terms of random fluctuations in e.g. stock recruitment and growth, economic para meters like prices and costs, have been extensively studied by use of inter alia stochastic simulations and optimisation methods. Although the effects of political uncertainty in a highly regulated industry like the fishing industry are likely to be consi derable, this topic has received very little attention in the literature thus far - maybe because political uncertainty is difficult to model within established theoretical frameworks. WP3 is dedicated to the study of these issues. The analysis of how pol itical uncertainty affects fishermen's behaviour constitutes an important area of research on its own. In addition, the results and findings from WP3 are important inputs for WP2 and WP3.