Wave Ensemble Prediction for Offshore Operations

We propose a project with the objective to investigate how probabilistic ocean wave forecasting can be used for improved decision support and risk management at offshore platforms. A project where the meteorological community works in cooperation with ri sk management expertise and the people responsible for day to day decisions on offshore operations offers a unique opportunity to bridge the gap between these communities. In this proposal, the meteorological community is represented by the Norwegian Mete orological Institute (met.no) and ECMWF. Risk management is represented by Det Norske Veritas (DNV) and the offshore industry is represented by two important operators on the Norwegian continental shelf, ConocoPhillips and BP Norge AS. In the project we propose to use the archived ECMWF forecasts during the last 10 years in combination with the wave observations at a number off offshore installations to simulate the decision process for many different offshore operations. The hit and false alarm rates ba sed on the probabilistic approach will be compared with those obtained by using the traditional deterministic approach. We will also examine if use of persistence analysis in the deterministic and ensemble forecasts can improve number of hits. Also, the archive containing 10 years of ensemble forecasts represents 510 years of data. At forecast day 10, no forecast predictability is left. The ensemble members are then virtually 51 random draws from climatology. Here, we propose to investigate whether this can be applied for determining design criteria, such as 100-year return levels of wave height.