Perceptions and understandings of climate change and migration: Conceptualising and contextualising for Lakshadweep and the Maldives

This project aimed at understanding better if and how climate change could influence people's choices to migrate from or to remain in their homes, focusing on low-lying island communities because they are often said to be severely threatened by climate change. Data were collected from two island communities in Maldives (Guraidhoo and Dhuvafaaru) which is an independent country and two island communities in Lakshadweep (Kavaratti and Minicoy) which belongs to India. The comparison between these two archipelagos is suitable due to their many social and environmental similarities. Three main data sets were collected: (i) qualitative, semi-structured, one-on-one interviews with residents; (ii) quantitative household surveys; and (iii) qualitative, semi-structured, one-on-one interviews from informed 'elites' in each country. The results and analysis demonstrate that climate change is rarely prominent in the islanders' decisions to migrate or to stay. Migration is and always has been a potential action, but for reasons such as livelihoods, education, health, and family. Climate change is not a major concern regarding the future, even though high awareness exists about the topic. These findings challenge many dominant viewpoints which often assume that climate change is and should be a major concern for islanders with respect to migration. Seminars have been held to discuss these results with national policy makers and practitioners. Several academic papers and academic conference presentations have been completed, alongside popular science dissemination. The new science produced by this project pushes forward the understanding of reasons for migrating and non migrating where climate change ostensibly threatens entire communities.

It has been long recognized that changes in the environment can influence human movement patterns and behaviour. It is also increasingly being suggested that climate change impacts will induce and increase such movements because migration becomes a potent ial adaptation strategy (e.g. see the IPCC reports). While the term 'climate change migration' implies that a direct causal line can be drawn between climate change and migration, researchers are increasingly questioning that assumption. This study inves tigates the assumptions and challenges to the assumptions in work on climate change and migration. It aims to conceptualize and contextualize the relationship between climate change and migration. The first aspect, conceptualizing, refers to the knowledge gaps and the need to understand and detail conceptual issues associated with climate change and migration such as terminology/definitions, links, drivers, thresholds, implications, data requirements, methodological challenges, and other associated comple xities. The second aspect, contextualizing, refers to understanding climate change and migration debates within the nexus of migration, climate change, environment, and social development along with governance and policy perspectives at different scales r anging from international to local. This study proposes a case study based approach comparing and contrasting communities in the Maldives and Lakshadweep (India). The choice of the case study sites are based on their geographical proximity, topographical similarity, and analogous livelihoods and expected climate change impacts. Meanwhile, they display enough governance differences, e.g. sovereignty and non-sovereignty, to test the hypotheses under different circumstances. Dissemination includes scientif ic papers and presentations, popular science articles and advice conveyed in appropriate languages, a user group, and engagement with stakeholders including interviewees regarding their needs.