Strategies in dairy and beef production for meeting the demand of food based on a climate- and cost efficient use of domestic feeds

-The background for this project is the statement from the Norwegian government that the domestic food production should increase proportionally with the demand of a growing population, and that use of the domestic feed resources should be focused. Goals:1) Quantify the relationship between total milk production and milk yield per dairy cow and the need for beef from suckler cow production to meet beef demand in various scenarios, 2) Evaluate the potential for domestic feeds in the cattle sector, and quantify the effects of milk yield of dairy cows and growth rates in beef production on the demand for imported animal feeds, 3) Quantify the effects of milk yield of dairy cows and growth rates in beef production and production system in dairy and beef production on greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) from the cattle sector and per unit of products, 4) Elucidate how to best meet the demand of milk and beef based on a climate- and cost efficient use of domestic feeds in dairy and beef production. Four scenarios for the domestic milk and beef production in 2030 were generated; (A) Continue the today`s production level of milk (1500 mill L per year) and proportionally increased beef production to meet the increasing demand (110 000 tonne per year); (B) Proportionally increased milk production to meet the increasing demand (1770 mill Lper year) and beef as in A; (C) As (B), but based on national feed resources (60 % roughage, and at least 85 % domestic grown concentrates; (D) Reduced milk volume (1230 mill Lper year) and constant beef volume (80 000 tonne per year). Three alternatives for milk yield increase were used; 0 %, 1 % and 2 % per cow per year onwards 2030. Goal 1: With constant production of milk and beef, respectively, required numbers of suckler cows increase with increased milk yield per cow. In scenario A, an increase of milk yield of 2 % per year results in a need of 240 000 suckler cows in 2030, i.e. three times the day`s number. With a higher production level for milk (Scenario B and C) more beef is produced from the dairy cow population, resulting in a lower need of suckler cows. In scenario D, with 2 % increase in milk yield per cow per year, only 135000 dairy cows, but as many as 165000 suckler cows are required in 2030. The effectiveness in beef production has a decisive influence on the number of suckler cows needed. Goal 2: With a production level of milk and beef in 2030 as today or lower (Scenario D), the national feed resources are most efficient used with a milk yield per cow as today, or lower. To meet the production demand for milk and beef in Scenario A, the milk yield per cow need to increase rapidly, and the import of concentrates will increase. The scenarios with high production level of both milk and beef in 2030 (Scenario B and C), are probably not realistic to meet based on the available agricultural land. Lack of feed protein is the most critical factor to achieve increased production of milk and beef based on national feed resources. The results above, assume that the yields of feeds and that the efficiency in milk and beef production are as today. Thus, to be able to produce more milk and beef based on national feed resources, it is necessary to increase the yield of feeds per unit of agricultural land and to realize the efficiency potential in milk and beef production. Goal 3: The emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) was about 1 kg CO2 eq/kg milk in average, but with significant variations among regions and farms. The emissions of GHG from beef production was about18 kg CO2 eq per kg slaughter weight for the dairy cow population and about 26 kg CO2 eq per kg slaughter weight for the suckler cow population. The number of dairy cows required to produce a given amount of milk, decrease with increased milk yield per cow. This is the main reason why the emission of GHG per kg milk decrease with increased milk yield per cow. However, this reduction is counterbalanced by the higher GHG emissions from the beef production. Thus, the milk yield per cow do not have decisive effect on GHG emissions from the whole cattle sector. Goal 4. The total costs of producing a given amount of milk and meat, are not influenced by the milk yield per dairy cow. This is also true when other productions (grain, potatoes, sheep, pig and poultry) are held constant. Because the subsidies increase linearly with increased milk yield per cow, the results indicate that the social costs increase to some extent when the milk yield per cow increase, with a constant total volume of milk and beef. Thus, the milk yield per cow corresponding to the today`s yield may be more profitable compared to a higher milk yield per cow. This project has elucidated important challenges in milk and beef sector in the future, and has been important in competence building within the areas of food production, resource utilization and environmental effects.

The milk and beef sector is important in Norwegian agriculture. Recently, the Norwegian parliament approved that food production should increase proportionally with the demand of a growing population, and emphasized that the production should be based on a climate- and cost efficient use of domestic feeds. Increased milk and beef production can be achieved in various combinations of number of animals (dairy- and suckler cows) and production intensities. To find climate and cost efficient ways of producing the milk and beef, we need new knowledge especially on the effect of milk yield per cow on: the need for specialized beef production, the use of domestic feed resources, feed import and greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) from the cattle sector. In the presen t project, research institutions will co-operate with the Agro-industries to: 1 Quantify the relationship between total milk production and milk yield per dairy cow and the need for beef from suckler cow production to meet beef demand in various scenarios . 2 Evaluate the potential for domestic feeds in the cattle sector, and quantify the effects of milk yield of dairy cows and growth rates in beef production on the demand for imported animal feeds. 3 Quantify the effects of milk yield of dairy cows and gr owth rates in beef production and production system in dairy and beef production on GHG emissions from the cattle sector and per unit of products.4 Elucidate how to best meet the demand of milk and beef based on a climate- and cost efficient use of domest ic feeds in dairy and beef production. These sub-goals will lead to the achievement of the primary objective ?Develop a science-based approach for evaluating various intensities and production systems in dairy and beef production for meeting the demand fo r food based on a climate and cost efficient use of domestic feed resources?. The potential for enhanced value creation as a result of this project is considerable.