Electromobility LAb Norway

The main purpose of ELAN was to establish improved and accurate knowledge of the market development for electric cars, and the innovations and strategies that can contribute to expanding the market. The project thus supported the national goals for the development of Norway towards a low-emission society. Electric cars had a market share of 20% of new car sales in 2017, and have been used by multi-car households without challenges since 2012. To only zero-emission passenger cars from 2025, both single- and multi-car households must take electric cars into use the next few years. Then new and stronger barriers, especially related to range, charging time and infrastructure, must be overcome. Innovations in technology and policy formulation and mobilization of new actors are needed. Norway in underway with a BEV sales share of 65% in 2021. To increase knowledge about how to achieve 100% electric car sales in Norway from 2025, ELAN has published 3 articles, one book chapter, 4 TØI reports, and contributed to 2 articles and one book chapter. The most important results are described briefly below. The article "Retrospective Total Cost of Ownership analysis of Battery Electric Vehicles in Norway", found that electric cars have been competitive with new petrol cars from 2011, and used petrol cars from2013, thus making BEVs the main technology for one of the cars in multi-car households. Some incentives can now be scaled down without losing competitiveness. The article (in review) "The 1990 to 2020 Technology Innovation System supporting Norway's BEV revolution" uses the TIS framework (Technology Innovation System) to look at how innovation in the car industry and Norwegian industry and the electric car service sector has contributed to establishing the world's largest electric car market. The TØI report "Simulating the trade-off between public revenues and environmental objectives of the transition to plug-in electric vehicles", shows that it is possible to reduce electric car incentives and at the same time maintain the electric car market so that the state can keep tax revenues. ELAN contributed to Frisch / UiO The article "Would my driving pattern change if my neighbor where to buy and emission-free car?" looked at whether there is a bandwagon effect between electric car incentives (which can increase car use) and owners of petrol and diesel cars (that they also drive more). Such an effect, if any, is very weak. The article "Fast Charging - Evidence from the Norwegian Market" analyzed 2 years of usage data for fast chargers from 2 operators and found that the average motorist 2016-2017 received approx. 5% of the energy from fast chargers and that each session was approx. 20 min where 10 kWh was charged with an average power of 30 kW, with great variation between seasons and users Book chapter “Norway the world leader in BEV adoption. Book chapter in "Who's driving electric cars", sums up the Norwegian electric car development until 2020 relative to the development in other countries (other chapters). The TØI report "Battery electric vehicle user experiences in Norway's maturing market", examined the electric car owners' usage and purchase patterns and compared it with petrol car owners. Compared with previous surveys, electric car owners are becoming more similar to ordinary car owners. The TØI report “Norwegian business opportunities on the way to an electrified transport sector” found that charging infrastructure players and companies that make chargers as well as materials for batteries can have business opportunities. The TØI report “Electromobility status in Norway: Mastering long distances - the last hurdle to mass adoption” looks in particular at longer journeys and the cost of time and energy for an average travel pattern. The main finding is that electric car owners travel cheaply in everyday traffic, but with increased time costs on long journeys. For electric cars with larger batteries, the result is positive. The article (contribution) "A review of consumer preferences of and interactions with electric vehicle recharging infrastructure" summarizes global knowledge about how charging infrastructure is used and how much is needed and where. The upcoming conference paper “Transition from ICEV to BEV: How do personal usage patterns change?” how electric car purchases affect the driving pattern with the help of data loggers, but it proved challenging to recruit enough users. ELAN contributed to seven “Policy Briefs” published by “The International EV Policy Council” describing the global common knowledge on: “Developing Charging Infrastructure for Consumer”, “Understanding reoccuring incentives”, Strategies to Drive the Consumer Adoption of Electric Vehicles in Cities ”,“ Exploring the Role of Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles in Electrifying Passenger Transportation ”,“ Increasing Consumer Awareness and Knowledge ”,“ Understanding ZEV Mandates ”.

ELAN har gitt betydelig ny kunnskap om adopsjon av elbiler og mulighetsrommet fremover i tid knyttet til balansering av insentiver opp behovet for statlige avgiftsinntekter og målet om bare å selge nullutslippsbiler fra 2025. En nøkkelfaktor fremover vil være å sikre tilstrekkelig tilgang til god nok ladeinfrastruktur til at alle bilbrukere kan erstatte bensin- og dieselbilen med elbiler, det være seg om de bor i en by uten lademulighet hjemme, i en enebolig med enkel tilgang eller i mer spredtbygde strøk der det kan være langt mellom hurtigladerer og mer krevende klima. Samtidig må det opprettholdes en viss økonomisk fordel ved å velge elbil men den kan være lavere når barrierer mot elbilbruken reduseres gjennom elbiler med lenger rekkevidde og utbygging av mer ladeinfrastruktur. Gjennom internasjonale publiseringer i renomerte tidsskrifter er kunnskap med høy kvalitet spredt nasjonalt og internasjonalt. Prosjektet har også hatt en omfattende spredning av resultater gjennom presentasjoner for norske og utenlandske politikere, forskere og markedsaktører på konferanser, i møter og webinarer.

The main purpose of the ELAN project is enhanced and accurate knowledge on the diffusion of electric vehicles and on the innovations and strategies required to reach Norway?s ambitious national goals for the low emission society. Using state of the art research methods, the project will monitor and take advantage of the extraordinary battery electric vehicle market development taking place in Norway. Battery electric passenger vehicles (BEVs) reached a market share of 17% in Norway in 2015 and have effortlessly been taken into use by multivehicle households. The 2016 National Transport Plan proposal states that only zero emission vehicles shall be sold from 2025. The BEV market must thus be extended also to single vehicle owning households leading to a need to overcome much more challenging user barriers, related to range, charge time and infrastructure. Innovations on many levels, in an extensive interplay between technology, policy and new and existing actors, will be required. The results will be large reductions in fossil fuel use and greenhouse gas emissions, paving the way for a future-oriented city and regional development, as well as innovation in enterprises and the development of new solutions. Previous research will quickly be outdated, consequently new and deeper research based knowledge will be needed. The ELAN project will take the form of an «electromobility lab», enhancing the knowledge on (i) the potential for completely replacing the sales of ICE passenger vehicles with electric vehicles by 2025, (ii) the prerequisites for achieving such a target, and (iii) the short and long term societal consequences of doing so. A broad research framework, combining different theories and paradigms, i.e. socio-economic concepts with econometric modelling, will be used by ELAN researchers in the systematic analysis of the BEV diffusion in Norway. Collection of empirical data required for the analysis will be done using novel collection methods.