European Management of Migration and Refugees - Consequences for mobility and political stability in transit countries

This project addresses European policies to manage migration and refugees, and patterns of mobility in refuge populations. We ask what shapes European policies of migration and refugees, what consequences this policy has for the political and economic situation in host countries of large numbers of refugees, and whether these policies have consequences for the refugees' wishes to travel on to Europe or to stay in neighbouring areas. The project has focused on the situation for refugees in Jordan, Lebanon, Niger and Uganda – and after the high arrival numbers of Ukrainian refugees in Europe, we have, in the last year, expanded to also follow refugee policies and refugee mobility in Poland and Norway. The project will end in spring 2023. The final conference will be held on 23 November 2023, at the London School of Economics. The project focusses on three different thematic areas and below we summarize some key findings for each. Mobility in refugee populations Through two different articles (one qualitative and one quantitative) Guri Tyldum demonstrates that for Syrian refugees in Jordan and Lebanon, economic conditions such as unemployment or poverty have little impact on migration aspirations. Instead, she finds that their perceptions of if and when return to Syria will soon be possible, in combination with cultural preferences for the kind of society the refugees want to live in, shapes aspirations to migrate or stay. Some say that their main motive for wanting to move to Europe is that this will give their children opportunities they do not have as refugees in the neighbouring areas - but if they had not had children they would rather have remained in neighbouring areas where language and cultural practises are more similar to their home. The large arrival numbers of Ukrainian refugees to Europe, has increased the relevance of the project and its focus on the mobility of refugees from first safe countries of arrival. Through an additional grant from UDI, we have been able to expand the project with fieldwork among Ukrainian refugees in Norway and Poland, and through 2022 the project participants have been given numerous presentations in various public agencies involved in planning for the reception of refugees. Project manager, Tyldum, has participated in UDI's scenario group which has held regular meetings to develop estimates for refugee arrivals, to enable government agencies and municipalities to make plans. 1-3 articles are under development comparing migration patterns and migration opportunities for Syrian and Ukrainian refugees. Development of European migration policy. In this part of the project, the researchers have focused on how knowledge and values influence policy development in Europe. Natascha Zaun and Olivia N. Benoit-Gonin describe in two different articles (one still under review) the background for the decision to use developmentaid to countries of origin and transit as part of policies to reduce migration. They show that this is done in spite of a broad professional agreement that such assistance is not likely to have as an effect that irregular migration is reduced. Zaun and Benoit-Gonin show that the actors who designed the policy were also aware of this, but that the policy was developed because post-2015 there was a strong pressure to “do something” and to reduce the numbers of migrants arriving in Europe. Actors who wanted to preserve the core of the EU's development policy used this opportunity to put more development aid in place. Karin Vaagland delivered the PhD thesis "To harmonize or to externalize? EU decision-making in times of migration crises" at the Department of Political Science in Oslo in November 2022. She shows, among other things, how externalization policy (i.e. policy that aims to prevent migrants from reaching Europe's borders) often becomes the only migration policy the European the countries manage to agree on, because the Visegrad countries are so strongly opposed to cooperation on the internal dimension of migration policy in the EU - such as systems for the redistribution of refugees between EU countries. Consequences for host population. Ingunn Bjørkhaug has published one article and one book review that deals with the relationship between refugees and the host population in Uganda. To explore further some of the questions addressed in these publications, additional fieldwork has been carried out in Kampala and Nakivale in the autumn of 2022, and based on this material another two articles are being developed. Her work shows the complexity of the relationship between the host population and the refugees - and points out that those in the host population who are most affected by increased competition for limited resources are also aware that they benefit from the refugees' presence through improved infrastructure, better services and for some – a larger base of customers.

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The project will investigate how policies of migration management and protection systems shape access to protection, education and sustainable livelihoods for refugee populations, refugee mobility (their decision to repatriate, remain or move on to Europe or other third countries) and political developments and political stability in host communities. The analysis will focus in particular on the humanitarian responses and how refugees are provided access to education and sustainable livelihoods. The project will provide recommendations for international interventions to governments and humanitarian organisations on ways to improve current policies of migration management and refugee protection. Recommendations will focus on policy options that give refugees better access to education and sustainable livelihoods, limit tension between host population and refugees, limit secondary mobility and facilitate repatriation when possible. The project will target four countries and regions with large refugee populations: Lebanon (the Bekaa Valley); Jordan (Amman); Uganda (Nakivale); Niger (Agadez). The analysis will draw on existing, high-quality survey data on refugee and host populations in three of the regions, in combination with document analysis and qualitative interviews. We approach the refugee protection systems as systems of practice and aim to describe the structural factors that create opportunities for action for international actors, refugees, local governments and host populations, how the various actors respond to these opportunities (or lack of opportunities), as well as how they understand their own situation and opportunities.