Advancing BIOfuel PATHways with regional climate change implications (BIOPATH)

The transport sector is among the largest contributors to global emissions, and, without substantial mitigation policies, transport emissions are predicted to increase faster than those from any other sector. Many future climate change mitigation scenarios expect a key role played by biofuels, but their implementation at a regional level in terms of resource use, land management, conversion technology, and reduced environmental impact is still largely unclear. BIOPATH aims to explore the interactions between future biofuel pathways, land transitions, biofuel potentials and regional climate change mitigation, thereby offering novel science-based evidence to advance assessment frameworks of biofuel systems. The project has processed satellite data, emission factors, mass and energy balances, life-cycle data, agro-climatic crop and forest yield models, calibrated and run environmental regional climate models. All the datasets are open-source and made available together with the scientific articles that present the results. BIOPATH investigated the land management and biomass potentials required to meet biofuel demands in future scenarios across regional scales, with a detailed overview of the climate change mitigation potentials of alternative pathways. We processed remotely-sensed products to identify abandoned cropland or cropland under degradation that can be used for production of biomass for energy at reduced risks for food security and the environment. These maps have been integrated with crop yield models to estimate bioenergy potentials at global levels according to constraints in terms of water supply (rainfed vs. irrigation), agricultural management intensity (high or low), and land availability (whether strategic land for biodiversity conservation is protected or not). For the first time, BIOPATH applied a coupled land-atmosphere regional climate model with an enhanced representation of perennial grasses to study the regional climate response to biofuel crop expansion in Europe. Simulations show that converting today’s cropland in Europe induces annual mean reductions of air temperature, especially in summer and autumn (up to –1 °C). A sustainable deployment of perennial grasses in Europe thus has the potential to link global mitigation objectives with co-benefits for the local climate and environment. BIOPATH developed a new approach based on a set of machine learning algorithms to investigate how forest management influences local surface temperature in Fennoscandia. We find that more mature forests are typically warmer than young forests, except for the summer. We generated a novel, simple yet reliable statistical model that can link individual forest management practices to local temperature changes. This open-source model achieves higher accuracy than regional climate models, and it can be used by non-experts to design climate-smart forest management strategies. Research on land management and resource supply was integrated within a value chain perspective. BIOPATH compiled life-cycle inventory data, process simulations, and mass/energy balances for various conversion technologies and for farming activities to establish and grow biofuel crops on European abandoned cropland. Case studies have been performed at a Norwegian, Nordic and global level. For example, biofuels from nationally available forest residues in Norway can contribute to climate change mitigation relative to a no-biofuel scenario even under high electrification rates of the vehicle fleet, with a peak in mitigation around 2030. This is primarily due to the use of biofuels in internal combustion engine vehicles that remain on the road for some years, and in busses and trucks for which the penetration of electric mobility is lower. The climate change mitigation potential of biofuels from forest residues in Norway is also estimated for deep-sea shipping, showing the conditions by which the benefits are maximized, the most promising conversion technologies, and the influence of alternative policy scenarios up to 2050. Another analysis considered the potential benefits from cultivation of perennial grasses as energy crops on abandoned and degraded cropland in Nordic countries. The liquid biofuels potential is 67–110 PJ, depending on production technology, and the climate change mitigation benefits range from 6.0 to 17 MtCO2eq. (14–40% of annual road transport emissions). High-end estimates rely on bioenergy coupled to carbon capture and storage. A similar analysis has been performed at a global level, showing that an optimal mix of natural revegetation in biodiversity priority areas and different measures in the remaining land (growing biomass for biofuels and afforestation) can achieve a global mitigation potential of 0.8–4.0 GtCO2-eq. yr-1. More information about the achieved results of this project, the data, and the publications are available on the project website and by contacting the Principal Investigator.

The results of BIOPATH offer an overview on how production of advanced biofuels can increase to meet ambitious climate change mitigation objectives at reduced environmental costs and preventing trade-offs with food security. Research outcomes are of interest to scientific peers, resource managers, private stakeholders in the energy and transport sectors, and the public in general as they address topics that are of relevance for the society. The project investigates feedstocks from residue streams within a circular economy perspective and from growing perennial grasses as bioenergy crops on abandoned and degraded cropland. As perennial grasses usually increase soil organic matter and improve several ecosystem services relative to cropland, they can co-deliver a sustainable feedstock for biofuel production, restore soil functions and stimulate economic growth in rural areas. The project has also explicitly modeled alternative biofuel production technologies and quantified climate change mitigation benefits across a value chain perspective, thereby offering a variety of insights to multiple stakeholders at public and corporate levels. More specifically, BIOPATH identified abandoned and degraded cropland and explored how this land can be restored while creating synergies with biofuel production and climate change mitigation. Similar considerations apply to the management of local residue streams. This wide range of quantitative information is useful to the local managers as they can identify solutions that can combine the achievement of multiple sustainable development goals. For Norway, BIOPATH created high-resolution maps of annual forest harvest and availability of residues, which inform about outtake volumes potential per main tree species (spruce, pine, and birch), and identified cropland threatened by degradation (e.g., soil erosion) or abandoned. Different conversion technologies were evaluated within a Norwegian setting, offering stakeholders information about the most promising options in terms of resource suitability and use, conversion efficiency, and climate change mitigation potential, as well as existing limiting factors for their deployment. We generated an open-source model that can estimate effects on local surface temperature of forest management in Norway. The tool can be applied to quantify effects of alternative management scenarios. Given its simplicity and the possibility to be used across scales, it can be applied by non-experts to design climate-smarter forest management strategies. The project outcomes have been disseminated through a variety of means, and reached different stakeholders. Scientific peers have been engaged via scientific articles (up 20 are connected to the project) and presentations at international conferences, while users from the public and private sectors were approached by taking advantage of the networking opportunities offered by the FME Bio4Fuels and the IEA Bioenergy initiatives.

The transport sector is among the largest contributors to global emissions, and, without implementation of substantial mitigation policies, transport emissions will increase faster than those from any other sector. Authorities across the world are setting targets for sustainable biofuels, and scenarios aiming at stringent mitigation predict to achieve up to 40% of biofuels in the global transport fuel use by 2100. This will imply a significant transition in our society, with challenges, opportunities, and unexplored potential implications. Currently, little information exists on the regional climate dimension of this transition, despite the evidence that biofuel pathways can shape regional climate, by increasing or dampening local temperature, precipitation, or extreme events. Regional implications are particularly important as they address the relevant scale for ecosystems and society, and the scale at which most decisions are made. There are opportunities for potential positive synergies between policies for biofuel deployment and land management for climate change mitigation and adaptation. The ambition of BIOPATH is to fill this research gap by integrating cross-disciplinary elements of energy, environmental, climate, and social sciences. The project will advance analysis of biofuel pathways with regional climate metrics and assess existing biofuel targets in Norway and at a larger scale, and it will offer novel findings to improve the design of integrated strategies. BIOPATH will: - Assess and review pathways for biofuels under existing and future targets, with the associated implications for resource use and land transitions. - Quantify the regional climate change effects involved in the biofuel pathways. - Assess and advance approaches to study the climate footprint of biofuel pathways with regional climate implications. - Assess the public perception of biofuels in Norway and the role of policies for the implementation of win-win biofuel strategies.