Risikobasert tilnærming og prioritering i norsk politis forebygging og bekjempelse av kriminalitet

After the terrorist attacks in July 2011 the Norwegian police got partly harsh criticism for not being able to handle risk properly. According to the official Inquiry Commission, the police had little ability to recognize and manage risks based on changes in the society. The Commission emphasized that the police were insufficiently trained in terms of risk assessments, and that the leadership performance was dysfunctional. The police have however been familiar with risk assessments before 2011, but the risk handling was primarily related to tactical operations or threat assessments at an individual level, for example the risk assessment tool SARA to prevent future assaults within domestic violence. In the aftermath of the 2011-attacks there has been expectations of a wider and more systematically risk-based approach within all the areas of the police?s responsibility. Through vital governing documents from the government or the parliament to the police is it clearly stated that the police in wider sense must focus on future risks. On the other hand, risk and risk management is not uniformed approached within the police. Different milieus or different officers, analysts or leaders can operate with different definitions and perceptions of risk. In 2014 intelligence became the officially method to produce knowledge about crime issues and crime trends within Norwegian policing, when the National Police Directorate launched "Etterretningsdoktrine for politiet". Police intelligence is often related to the concept of risk. The main aim of intelligence is to decrease uncertainty and risks and increase the understanding of the decision-makers. This is mainly the same as for risk assessments. This study is supposed to examine to which extent strategic intelligence can contribute to risk-based decisions related to future crime issues for the purpose of preventing them, and how the strategic leaders understand and interpret intelligence and risk. The research on police intelligence is internationally quite a lot but limited in the Norwegian context. The research on police leadership is, both internationally and nationally, quite a lot. Some researchers argue that due to a more complex society, new technologies and new forms of crimes, the future police leadership require a blend of management skills (organizing, budgeting, staffing), personal skills (motivating, communicating) and leadership skills (strategizing, analysing and reflecting). Most of the Norwegian research on police leadership has been focusing on what refers to as managing skills. This can be seen in the context of the introduction of New Public Management (NPM) in the police, which is result driven and have focus on reporting regimes and effectiveness. Intelligence as decision-making support requires on the other hand more of leadership skills. Despite the harsh criticism from the official Inquiry Commission, and vital reports after this that highlight the same, the research on how risk and risk management is perceived within the Norwegian police is limited. There has been some research on the operational and tactic levels, but there is almost no research which covers strategic leadership in the context of intelligence and risk. This study will seek to gain knowledge about how the strategic leaders in the Norwegian police understand intelligence, and how intelligence can contribute to recognize and manage risk in the crime prevention and reduction.

Kravene fra politiske myndigheter er omfattende og medborgernes forventinger til politiet er høye. Samtidig vil, og skal, politiets ressurser være begrensede. Klare prioriteringer og god styring er derfor viktig for at politiet skal kunne utnytte ressursene hensiktsmessig og effektivt. Siden begynnelsen av 1990-tallet har mål- og resultatstyring vært det overordnede styringsprinsippet i statlig forvaltning, og statlige virksomheter er pålagt å risikostyre sin interne virksomhet. Etter terrorangrepet 22. juli 2011 har imidlertid politiet, spesielt i Gjørv-kommisjonens rapport, fått til dels sterk kritikk for manglende eller svak evne til å erkjenne risiko knyttet til ulike former for kriminalitet. Altså mangelfull forståelse og styring av risiko på forhold utenfor politiets organisasjon og kontroll. Den pågående politireformen er blant annet en konsekvens av kritikken som har fremkommet i Gjørv-rapporten og andre utredninger etter 22. juli. De siste årene har det vært en økning i bruken av begrepet risiko i ulike styringsdokumenter til og fra politiet. Innen noen fagområder i politiet er det utviklet veiledere eller verktøy for å vurdere risiko. En sentral utfordring er imidlertid at disse ikke bygger på en felles forståelse, definisjon eller betydning av risiko i innsatsen mot kriminalitet. Målet med prosjektet er å undersøke i hvilken grad norsk politi har en risikobasert tilnærming til styringen og prioriteringen av oppgavene politiet skal løse, og hva som fremmer og/eller hemmer at det kan oppnås. Det er i første omgang behov for å undersøke hvordan ledere i politiet oppfatter og forstår sentrale begrep innen risikostyring, og hvordan disse oppfatningene og forståelsene brukes i løsningen av samfunnsoppdraget. Politiets samfunnsoppdrag vil i dette prosjektet bli avgrenset til forebygging og bekjempelse av kriminalitet. En felles forståelsesramme er en forutsetning for at alle beslutningstakere i politiet i fremtiden skal kunne styre og prioritere etter risiko.