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BIA-Brukerstyrt innovasjonsarena

SPRM - Systemic Pandemic Risk Management

Alternative title: SPRM - Systemisk Pandemisk Risikohåndtering

Awarded: NOK 6.9 mill.

Project Number:


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Project Period:

2020 - 2022

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The Norwegian Corona Commission's third main finding states: "There is a need to develop a cross-sectoral system that captures how the risk in the different sectors affects each other mutually". In other words, that the COVID-19 strategy must rely on assessment and management of systemic risk. The "Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2019" at UNDRR states bluntly: ?Realizing the systemic nature of risks, and the opportunities afforded by new approaches and new concepts of risk will be the central challenge of the first half of the twenty-first century.? In collaboration with Kristiansand Municipality, Sørlandet Hospital, the Centre for Integrated Crisis Management (CIEM) from the University of Agder and two centres on disaster medicine from Italy and Sweden, the SPRM project has created a method for assessing and managing systemic pandemic risk and tested it as ?proof of concept?. The method requires high experience and expertise in facilitating workshops with carefully selected experts with relevant expertise in sectors of society affected by the pandemic. The method also requires high experience and expertise in analysis of systemic risk models. In the last 12 months of the SPRM project, algorithms are developed for automating the analysis of risk models and developing portfolios of strategies that are effective and practical to implement. Such algorithms will make the use of SPRM's methods significantly easier for end users.

Traditional risk and vulnerability assessments consider the impact of risks in isolation from one another and, hence, do not take account of the interactions between risks. These interactions create a system of associated risks and outcomes, where the outcomes of risks are risks themselves and where the resulting consequences can be complex. Risks are a system where a single risk can cause a plethora of other risks, and, in particular, cause vicious cycles of risks. The challenge is urgent: the risk literature calls for substantial research and development of systemic risk assessment and mitigation. The Covid-19 pandemic demonstrated this urgent need and proved Gro Harlem Brundtland’s dictum “everything is connected” to be forcefully valid to the health and care sector, and moreover that all sectors of society were impacted and impacted back on the health and care sector. The project will begin with an evaluation of the preparedness and response to Covid-19 in the Kristiansand metropolitan area. An early project outcome will be a consultancy service expected to be in high demand by the health and care sector, but also by businesses in Norway and internationally. As the project unfolds, consultancy will be enhanced by tool modules. The final outcome will be a tool allowing public sector entities, and private corporations, to conduct risk and vulnerability assessments with full consideration of the systemic inter-dependencies, and to develop preparedness and responses to a pandemic, within the health and care sector and externally with sectors affecting the health and care sector. Tool and method will be validated with partners in Norway, Italy and Sweden. SPRM will provide state of the art tools and methods to improve preparedness and response to pandemic crises within the health and care sector, but also in any public organizations and in enterprises vulnerable to economic consequences of pandemics, such as airlines, cruise lines, insurance companies, etc.


BIA-Brukerstyrt innovasjonsarena